2015 was a bizarro world for the Wisconsin Badgers football team. This was the case for several reasons. The first was they had a coach that was universally beloved for the first time since Bielema left, although truthfully, it was the first time since Barry Alvarez retired because Bret may have won a lot, but he ruffles a lot of feathers. Second it was Paul Chryst’s first year so they were playing with house money. Third, the basketball team was coming off back-to-back Final Fours so the entire Badger fan base was in a state of euphoria that really couldn’t be shaken. Finally, once play started, it became clear that this was not a team that would glide to a ton of wins but have to grind for everything.
The offense was a wreck. Corey Clement got hurt against Alabama and the offensive line never really gelled like in the past. Worse, veteran QB Joel Stave never seemed to get totally comfortable. There were the stories of off-season yips for him, there was the up-and-down line, he sustained some injuries, and lastly had an erratic receiver corps. In all he ended with a 60.8 completion percentage which was nice but just 11 TDs to 11 INTs. When it was all tallied at the end, UW had the 58th ranked passing attack, the 83rd ranked scoring offense, and stunningly 97th ranked rushing attack. Is this really Wisconsin?
So the record was probably pretty bad, right? Well they did open with a loss to Alabama before creaming three cupcakes. Their next real test was a narrow loss to Iowa filled with turnovers. Sitting at 3-2 UW faced a huge road trip to Lincoln. But they won! And kept winning! Suddenly they ripped off 5 straight (counting the NU win) to get to 8-2 and 5-1 in league. A Western title was still in play until the ugly 5 turnover loss to Northwestern ended the title aspirations. They bounced back nicely in Minneapolis to win the axe for the 12th straight time and 19 of the last 21. There are kids at UM of legal drinking age that don’t even remember the last time Minnesota won this rivalry game. The redemption of a season full of ‘what ifs’ concluded with a bowl win over USC to get to 10 wins.
Ten wins, how did that happen with those horrible offensive numbers? Well, how does the number one ranked scoring defense strike your fancy? So the blueprint is there – just need a bit more on the offense and Wisconsin can make Indy, right? Well, that becomes a tricky question.
The defense will remain great. DC Dave Aranda taking the same position at LSU is a hit but Justin Wilcox is a really good coordinator, I’m not saying the transition will be flawless but both run the 3-4 and the talent back is impressive. Vince Biegel, Jack Cichy, and Chris Orr are all solid in that front seven. That front by the way, could be the best in the entire Big Ten. The secondary has some new starters but they aren’t young pups. Many have experience from packages and being second on the depth chart and the best player, Sojourn Shelton, is back.
The real concern comes from the offense. The line should be vastly improved now that four sophomore starters have had the bumpy year behind them. One unknown issue is how the retirement of senior center Dan Voltz will impact how this unit operates. Corey Clement is also healthy but thanks to Dare Ogunbowale and Taiwan Deal stepping up, there is a lot of depth now at running back. These positives are offset by who will step up and be the quarterback. Bart Houston is the veteran but can’t seem to pin down the job. Whoever does win the starting gig has few weapons to throw to. Leading receiver Alex Erickson graduated so Robert Wheelwright (32 catches last year) and TE Tony Fumagalli (28 receptions last year) will need to up their game. Oh, by the way, the fourth leading receiver last year in terms of yards but second most in catches, was Dare Ogunbowale. When your back up RB is incorporated that much into the passing attack, you got some issues.
I lied actually. The real concern is the schedule. Even with a proven QB or a game changing wide out, there are plenty of losses out there based purely on the 12 grinding weeks in store for Wisconsin. Check this out:
2016 Schedule
LSU (at Lambeau Field)
- Best Case – Leonard Fournette was in a boot recently for a tweaked ankle. Plus, you know Green Bay will be going crazy for the Badgers. Maybe, just maybe, the tundra can be frozen in week one. 1-0
- Worst Case – LSU has a very talented defense and Wisconsin is going into battle with a massive question mark at QB. 0-1
- Prediction – I have no doubt that the Badgers will make this a game. They were even competitive with Alabama at times a year ago but I just don’t see Houston or Alex Hornibrook being able to win this tough a debut. L, 21-13, 0-1
Akron
- BC – Akron used a team full of seniors to win the program’s first bowl a year ago. The problem with that type of roster is all the new faces the next season. 2-0
- WC – Outside an injury, UW should outclass the young Zips. 1-1
- P – W, 28-0, 1-1
Georgia State
- BC – Georgia State made a bowl last year, but their game-changing QB Nick Arbuckle graduated. 3-0
- WC – Even with Arbuckle, the Panthers would struggle against this front seven. 2-1
- P – W, 28-3, 2-1
At Michigan State
- BC – Much like UW, State enters with some questions about their QB but they also have a few issues along both lines. If Wisconsin finds a way to keep MSU off-balance with a passing game, they can win. 4-0
- WC – Despite the similarities, Tyler O’Connor for the Spartans does have a win over Ohio State under his belt. Can’t ignore that. 2-2
- P – Sitting here in late August, MSU has a touch of an edge at QB and is the home team. I still expect a brutally physical tilt though. L, 17-10, 2-2 (0-1)
At Michigan
- BC – The theme for several of this year’s contenders is questions at quarterback. Michigan is in that group. 5-0
- WC – The defense can only do so much, damn it! 2-3
- P – Michigan looks like the more talented team on paper and are at home. Wisconsin is talented enough to win every game this year, but it is so tough to make that upset call week after week. L, 24-10, 2-3 (0-2)
Ohio State
- BC – The Buckeyes are the opposite, they return a stud QB in J.T. Barrett but are young everywhere else. The midpoint of the season isn’t exactly early, but I do think the earlier you play Ohio State the better chance you have at pulling the upset (see UM and MSU). 6-0
- WC – Did you know there is yet another Bosa in Columbus? 2-4
- P – Until I see a pass from a Badger quarterback, I am going to assume that the most critical position is a black hole. L, 28-7, 2-4 (0-3)
At Iowa
- BC – Somehow, inexplicably, the nation’s best defense allows Wisconsin to survive this trial by fire to open league play. Thanks to all the impressive wins, UW is ranked in the top 5. Clement getting Heisman pub and the playoffs look like a certainty if they can keep it up. 7-0
- WC – Iowa has a great defense and a lot of starters back, too. Houston has 2 picks and 2 fumbles. 2-5
- P – Iowa has a more sure bet under center, a ton of talent back on that defense, and is playing at home. The smart pick, yet again, is to go against UW. L, 17-10, 2-5 (0-4)
Nebraska
- BC – NU’s defense was awful last year. Wisconsin finally enjoys a blowout. 8-0
- WC – Of course Nebraska returns 9 starters on offense including yet another QB better than what Wisconsin is looking at this fall. 2-6
- P – UW won last year, has the better defense, won’t have the same issues in the running game, and are playing at the Camp. It’ll be a grinder, but they finally get a league win. W, 24-17, 3-5 (1-4)
At Northwestern
- BC – The Wildcat offense looks to be one of the worst in the league. Another lopsided Big Ten win. 9-0
- WC – Of course NU had a nice defense a year ago and used 5 takeaways to steal the game last year. Uh-oh. 2-7
- P – Talent favors Wisconsin. I’m sure NU will be their usual scrappy selves and that defense can keep things interesting but Badger’s still pull out a league road victory. W, 24-21, 4-5 (2-4)
Illinois
- BC – While not as bad as Penn State’s, this OL was a mess last year. Sack city for Wisconsin. 10-0
- WC – Without a bowl to play for, Badgers kind of pack it in. Plus Illinois looks to be improved in many ways from last year. 2-8
- P – Sometimes you say it best the first time around. Copying from my preview of Illinois: Wisconsin isn’t going to have a very good record because their schedule is an absolute nightmare, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t a well coached outfit or lacking talent. Wisconsin will hold their own against teams like Illinois, especially at home. W, 28-10, 5-5 (3-4)
At Purdue
- BC – Purdue stinks. The end. 11-0
- WC – Despite a nightmare, Badgers refuse to go winless in league and step up to maintain some dignity. 3-8
- P – Purdue is a train wreck (ug, they haven’t heard that before) and Wisconsin gets going late in the season but are finally clicking. W, 35-14, 6-5 (4-4)
Minnesota
- BC – I wonder how the #1 party school would celebrate a flawless regular season? 12-0
- WC – No, no, no!!! The Axe is finally in Minneapolis. 3-9
- P – Badgers still outclass Minnesota in the trenches. That matters in any level of football and in any weather but seems even more important late in the season when the cold and snow is in play. Make it number thirteen. W, 31-10, 7-5 (5-4)
Final Notes
Sometimes the rules of how I do these posts result in a wrong number. I have every team’s worst case correspond to the opposing team’s best case. So no, Wisconsin isn’t going 3-9. Likewise, the odds of them going 12-0 are terribly low. So I should like my 7-5 mark then, right? Well, not really. Because I pick each game in the off-season without a lot to go on, I don’t factor in injuries, etc. I find it difficult to see UW not winning ANY of those brutal early Big Ten games. MSU and Michigan have real issues at QB. Ohio State is very young. Iowa was a “could have, should have” on for UW last year and can certainly win in Kinnick. Even LSU is a game that Wisconsin can battle in. Honestly, it isn’t like the Tigers are the Bush-era Trojans or one of those late 90s / early 2000s Miami teams.
Moral of the story is this preview is one of the rare times where the numbers just don’t line up since I think Wisconsin will probably be an 8 or even 9 win team….if they can get a QB to match the meager numbers of Stave since the defense is that good. So basically, I wasted your time. Whelp! Sorry, it happens. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Big Ten and Counting 