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Best Case / Worst Cale / Prediction – 2016 Nebraska

‘What the hell was that?’ was the theme to Nebraska’s 2015 season, as in ‘what the hell was that Hail Mary BYU hit?’  Another one would be ‘what the hell was that 14-13 loss to Illinois?’  It wasn’t all bad though, like ‘what the hell was that win over Michigan State?’  In all Nebraska put together a woefully sloppy 5-7 regular season that was redeemed with a solid bowl win over UCLA.  The biggest ‘what the hell?’ has to be the 75th ranked defense that looked so out-of-place in too many games and reached the lowest of low in giving up 55 points in a loss to Purdue.  Among other questions, that defense is still by far the biggest for the Huskers as they enter year two of the Mike Riley experience.

On that D, Nate Gerry is a talent in the secondary but I’m at a loss for what the rest of the Husker bring.  The line was decimated by departures and generated almost no pass rush last year so the one thing the defense did do – rush D – will most likely take a step back.  In all honesty, the best hope for Nebraska is to just out score everyone but boy do they have the chops to do that because of the talent they return.

Nine – NINE (9)!!! – starters are back for an offense that was top 50 last year and extremely electric at times.  Not bad considering schematically Bo to Riley was a pretty big shift.  This talented group is keyed by Tommy Armstrong Jr, who had over 3,000 passing yards and 22 TDs as well as 400 rushing yards and 7 scores with his feet.  If he can cut his INTs down a touch (16) and keep or even improve his completion percentage a smidge (55.2) he could compete for league offensive honors, he is that good.

Helping the cause is a ton of receivers (I mean nine starters, honestly) returning led by Jordan Westerkamp, who has almost 1,700 yards over the last two seasons and “only” averaged 14.1 yards per a year ago en route to 7 TDs.  Another big piece is leading rusher Terrell Newby, who had an impressive 5.2 yards per pop last year.  He is also dangerous in the passing game, snagging 24 passes.  The only fly in the honey for this unit is replacing 3 starters on the OL.  Even with that concern, there is a lot to love about the Huskers’ ability to score this fall.

2016 Schedule

Fresno State

  • Best Case – For those of you that listen to a podcast I co-host, I have Fresno’s Tim DeRuyter as one of the first coaches fired this year.  1-0
  • Worst Case – The Bulldogs went an ugly 3-9 last year that included giving up 73 to Ole Miss.  1-0
  • Prediction – Fresno’s D last year no-showed and I’m pretty sure they will be MIA again this year.  Not a recipe for success against what is on paper one of the best offenses in the league.  W, 56-21, 1-0

Wyoming

  • BC – Two Mountain West teams?  Is Nebraska looking to leave the Big Ten?!  2-0
  • WC – Wyoming went 2-10 last year and lost to North Dakota.  Not the Bison who win the FCS title every year, but the hockey powerhouse.  Yikes.  2-0
  • P – Outside of a season changing injury, these first two games will be a cakewalk for the Cornhuskers.  W, 49-10, 2-0

Oregon

  • BC – Oregon is a high ceiling, low basement team this year because we have no idea how Dakota Prukop will do against FBS level athletes after a solid FCS career.  3-0
  • WC – UO was still a nine-win club who beat Stanford at the Farm in a “down” year for the Ducks.  2-1
  • P – This is a tough game for me because the Huskers have the edge under center and are at home – two things I love to go with in a toss-up game – but UO almost beat MSU in East Lansing last year and this Nebraska team isn’t as good as Sparty was a year ago (even if NU won the head to head) so I’ll take the team I feel is more talented even though I don’t love the pick.  L, 35-31, 2-1

At Northwestern

  • BC – NU (Purple) looks to have severe issues on offense so even NU (Red) should be able to stop them.  4-0
  • WC – The Cats won 10 games a year ago thanks to a statistically top defense so if that remains and the offense improves, Northwestern could be a tough out, maybe even contend for the Big Ten West.  2-2
  • P – Armstrong had a gem last year but the defense was terrible in a 30-28 loss.  Huskers step up and flip the script in another tight one between these two.  W, 28-24, 3-1 (1-0)

Illinois

  • BC – Nebraska manages to score more than 13 points…oh, and they win.  5-0
  • WC – Illinois had a really salty defense a year ago and looks to improve on it.  I have them as a bowl club for a reason.  2-3
  • P – The offense bails out another sloppy defensive game with some nice ball control offense led by Newby late.  W, 28-21, 4-1 (2-0)

At Indiana

  • BC – Hoosiers take a step back without incredible QB Nate Sudfeld.  Top 15 now baby.  6-0
  • WC – Nebraska’s defense takes another day off – sort of like the 55 point Purdue game – and the Hoosiers’ offense remains strong despite the new face under center.  2-4
  • P – The only team with as many defensive questions as Nebraska is this Hoosier team.  Armstrong puts together a gem en route to a victory.  W, 35-24, 5-1 (3-0)

Purdue

  • BC – Without question, Purdue is the worst team in the league.  Great tune up before a difficult two-week road trip.  7-0
  • WC – Despite the upset last year, the talent still favors Nebraska.  I don’t see lightning striking twice.  3-4
  • P – Pretty big advantage under center and the game is in Lincoln.  That is a recipe for a win almost every time.  W, 45-21, 6-1 (4-0)

At Wisconsin

  • BC – Guess who has a complete unknown at quarterback coming into this year?  You guessed it!  8-0
  • WC – Wisconsin’s stout defense locks down NU and scores just enough to come away with a squeaker.  3-5
  • P – UW won this game last year 23-21 and that was in spite of one of their worst rushing years in recent memory.  With a healthy Corey Clement and that defense, I’ll take the Badgers in an old school Big Ten grinder.  L, 24-17, 6-2 (4-1)

At Ohio State

  • BC – OSU is one of the youngest team’s in the league.  Riley’s stock is rising almost as quickly as his team’s ranking.  9-0
  • WC – Despite the youth, this is still one of the most talented teams in the entire nation and playing at home.  3-6
  • P – Heisman caliber player J.T. Barrett going against that defense?  Woof.  L, 38-14, 6-3 (4-2)

Minnesota

  • BC – One of NU’s best games a year ago was their 48-25 thrashing of the Gophers.  Welcome to the top 5, Lincoln.  10-0
  • WC – In the same blueprint as the other defensive teams, UM gets just enough stops to slow Armstrong and then with the ball take advantage of another terrible Nebraska defense.  3-7
  • P – This is lazy but I love what I wrote in Minnesota’s preview so I’ll just do the old copy and paste here: These teams feel very similar on paper – defenses that we aren’t 100% sure are going to show up every week and coaches we aren’t 100% sure are long-term solutions.  Very toss-uppy as a result.  I’m picking the Huskers because they are of course the home team but also Tommy Armstrong Jr. is probably the best player on the field.  W, 31-28, 7-3 (5-2)

Maryland

  • BC – Indianapolis is locked up but the playoff’s aren’t so NU keeps the pedal to the metal.  11-0
  • WC – Maryland had some good recruiting classes but just horrible coaching.  D.J. Durkin should improve that defense and once NU is no longer playing for a bowl, will they really care?  Feels like when the Riley train goes off the rails, it won’t be pretty.  3-8
  • P – I think Maryland can be a bowl team and even improved enough to put this into the neighborhood of toss-up but that means I look at home field (NU) and qb advantage (NU).  Translation: W, 28-24, 8-3 (6-2)

At Iowa

  • BC – Hawks give it a go to upset the march to Indy but Nebraska survives a late road test to keep the CFP in play.  12-0
  • WC – Iowa is the one with Indy (maybe more) in play and NU just goes through the motions.  3-9
  • P – Iowa returns a lot of talent on defense and looks to have the advantage on both lines.  They win a grinder in a holiday snowstorm.  L, 17-14, 8-4 (6-3)

Final Notes

Offense, love it.  Championship caliber defense, not in a million years.  Nebraska could get to Indy with some bounces, but I don’t see that unit holding up against MSU, Michigan, or Ohio State once inside Lucas Oil.  Eight wins feels like a good number for such a questionable unit.  Now, as for the worst case.  Riley isn’t the most popular so if he starts 9-16 over two seasons, that could be enough to get him fired; however, he has the support of the AD Shawn Eichorst so unless NU is up for a massive overhaul in their athletic department, I think Riley sees a third year regardless.  The good news is even with Oregon and three tough league road trips, this team won’t fall apart.  That offense is just too dang good.