Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2016 Michigan State

The experienced Spartans entered 2015 with one question: how far could they go?  After starting 8-0 with a win over Oregon, a team that had stung them in 2014, and a crazy victory at Michigan the playoffs looked like the ceiling.  A strange collapse against Nebraska gave Michigan an opening and made OSU the team to beat but the Spartans righted the ship and won out, including knocking off Ohio State in the Shoe.  They used an epic late drive to win a physical battle against Iowa in the Big Ten title game and then went off to the playoffs.  A championship seemed possible until……Alabama.

Facing former coach (and program ditcher) Nick Saban seemed too good to be true but the magic ran out.  They lost 38-0 to finish 12-2 (7-1) and while the sting has worn off – in fact, I remember MSU making the final four, not the score of the game so the incredible achievement of being in the playoffs will always be a point of pride – the loss highlighted that MSU still has another rung on the latter to climb as a program with national title aspirations.

2016 finds MSU with the question no one asks about Ohio State and that is: did they reload or are they rebuilding?  This is asked because Connor Cook has graduated and my god was he a winner.  This is asked because the fearsome Shilique Calhoun is in the NFL.  This is asked because leading receiver Aaron Burbridge graduated.  This is asked because outstanding  punter Mike Sadler, a true weapon for this defense, graduated (before passing away, tragically in the off-season).  If they can answers these questions and put it together, another run is doable but like always people outside of Spartan nation have their doubts.  So it goes when you are a top program but not a blue blood program.

The first answer to the reload question comes in the form of bruising running back Lj Scott.  He may have only had 700 yards with a 4.8 average but he led the team in rushing as a freshman and was huge in the title game with 22 carries.  Defensively Malik McDowell is back, Ed Davis returns from injury, and of course Riley Bullough will lay the lumber but let’s be honest, Mark Dantonio is a defensive whiz, he’d find a way to make me and 10 friends into a competent outfit.

The last piece of the puzzle is under center.  Tyler O’Connor played well in the rain against Ohio State but the defense that handcuffed the Buckeyes won that game as much, if not more, than O’Connor did.  Is he ready for his close up?  I think the reload/rebuild question has been answered but will this offense be multi-faceted enough to make the title run is a fair lingering doubt.

2016 Schedule

Furman

• Best Case – The FCS Paladins went just 4-7 a year ago.  Blow out!  1-0
• Worst Case – Other than QB play being downright awful or a catastrophic injury, there is no way this one will be noteworthy.  1-0
• Prediction – W, 42-7, 1-0

At Notre Dame

• BC – MSU gets to have camp, play a cupcake on 9/2 then have 2 weeks to prepare for Notre Dame.  The Irish have a game 9/4 at Texas, 9/10 against a pesky Nevada team and then bruising MSU.  The feels like an advantage for Green and White.  2-0
• WC – The Irish almost won this game a year ago and certainly have more experience at the qb position.  1-1
• P – I really think the Irish are a dark horse for the tournament but with corner Devin Butler suspended and safety Max Redfield kicked off the team I am starting to have my doubts that Kelly can hold this thing together.  Lots of headaches going into this fall all of a sudden in South Bend.  I’ll take the safe pick.  W, 21-17, 2-0

Wisconsin

• BC – The Badgers are eerily similar to MSU in terms of potential but questions at qb.  As of late August, Spartans are better suited to answer those quarterback concerns.  3-0
• WC – After a shaky Furman game and a loss to the Irish, both O’Connor and Damion Terry are struggling.  Not a good position to be in against one of the league’s best defenses.  1-2
• P – In addition to having a touch more faith in MSU’s qb situation they are also the home team.  Feels like a battle brewing early in the year though.  W, 17-10, 3-0 (1-0)

At Indiana

• BC – Hoosiers take a step back without Nate Sudfeld and the Spartan d handcuffs ’em all afternoon.  4-0
• WC – Before a fourth quarter flop, the Hoosiers were neck and neck with MSU in East Lansing.  Take away some real weapons, maybe MSU slides enough for Indiana to get them back in Bloomington.  1-3
• P – Indiana has questions at quarterback just like Dantonio’s club; however, MSU has much better answers regarding the defense.  Stick with the safer bet.  W, 31-17, 4-0 (2-0)

BYU

• BC – Cougar’s enter with a new coach after Bronco Mendenhall surprised many by taking the Virginia job.  He was a consistent winner and that is difficult to replace overnight.  5-0
• WC – After three consecutive losses, I don’t see Sparty dropping a winnable home game with the season starting to slip out of control.  2-3
• P – Never take BYU lightly, but this is a game MSU should win at least 7 or 8 times out of ten, especially at Spartan Stadium.  W, 28-17, 5-0 (2-0)

Northwestern

• BC – Michigan State enjoys a rather large talent gap at every position and is the home team.  That usually adds up to a lopsided victory.  6-0
• WC – Riding one of the nation’s best defenses, NU uses the Wisconsin blueprint to steal a game at the expense of State.  Forget the title game, panic of missing a bowl starts to creep into a fan base not used to losing lately.  2-4
• P – I don’t see how Northwestern’s offense, which appears to lack much pop, can get going against this rugged defense.  W, 21-10, 6-0 (3-0)

At Maryland

• BC – Gee, another top-5 ranking.  They’re kind of getting used to this along the banks of the Cedar.  7-0
• WC – Gut check game just like BYU but the Spartans rally, thanks to the defense getting some takeaways on a team that was turnover prone a year ago.  3-4
• P – It won’t be flashy but much like the Northwestern game, the defense ties the Terps in knots and the offense takes advantage on a few drives thanks to Lj Scott.  W, 21-10, 7-0 (4-0)

Michigan

• BC – I got into Michigan’s own qb issues in their preview but there is no guarantee the Wolverine’s will be all systems go like the hype machine says.  8-0
• WC – While both teams have concerns under center, Michigan is a little more proven in the trenches.  Michigan finally gets a win in this rivalry.  3-5
• P – This was one of the hardest games to write about because both teams have aspects to love.  I would even say it was a 51-49 type percentage of waffling.  But as I said above, there are a few factors nudging me towards the Maize and Blue, even on the road.  L, 24-21, 7-1 (4-1)

At Illinois

• BC – UI had major issues on the O-line last year.  That doesn’t bode well against clubs like MSU.  9-0
• WC – I picked UI stunning UM in Illinois’ best case and Michigan’s worst case but I’m not doing that here.  Why?  Because of the position in the season.  If State really does start with 5 losses in their first eight, they need to rally to make a bowl.  This team is too prideful to collapse.  4-5
• P – I sort of like this Illinois team and I have them making a bowl, but the talent gap in many key areas goes towards the boys from East Lansing.  W, 28-17, 8-1 (5-1)

Rutgers

• BC – Always nice to have a glorified scrimmage before the Buckeyes come calling.  10-0
• WC – Climb into the bowl hunt with back-to-back victories.  5-5
• P – There were times last year where MSU had some ho-hum wins that looked close in the final score for a variety of reasons.  An improved Rutgers defense could produce one of those type games for State.  W, 28-14, 9-1 (6-1)

Ohio State

• BC – Tyler O’Connor is the Buckeye whisperer with a 2-0 start against Urban’s team.  11-0
• WC – Replacing a record-setting QB is never easy.  Doing so without his best WR and other key pieces missing can result in a transition year.  Plenty of solid programs and great coaches have had that gap year between titles.  5-6
• P – Ohio State looks like the type of team you want to play early since they are so young.  This late in the year, I expect all systems go and only one of these two teams has a Heisman candidate on the field and that is OSU with J.T. Barrett.  L, 28-24, 9-2 (6-2)

At Penn State

• BC – PSU’s OL gave up 38 sacks a year ago.  Yikes!  Indy bound and #1 in the nation, baby!  12-0
• WC – Dantonio hasn’t had a losing season since 2009 but when Kirk Cousins left, MSU did slip to 7-6 in 2012 and that was with a much easier schedule than they have this go around without their stud qb.  5-7
• P – I love what I wrote in previewing this game on PSU’s BC/WC/P post so much that I decided to do the old copy and paste: Dantonio is a chip on the shoulder guy.  Born and raised in El Paso (chip versus San Antonio, Houston, and Dallas) he played at South Carolina (chip versus Clemson, ACC and SEC schools as an independent back then), worked at Youngstown State (huge chip as a rust belt city), worked at Kansas (yeah, they’re a little envious), worked at MSU and when jilted by Saban he stayed loyal to Bobby Williams.  Later he was reunited with Jim Tressel at OSU and then finally got to be a head man!….at Cincy (OSU doesn’t even bother to play them).  That attitude has made him build a machine at MSU.  I don’t see this program really rebuilding nowadays but simply reloading or doing minor tweaks with new guys.  Besides, 55-16 is a whole lot of points to swing just by playing the game in Beaver Stadium.  W, 28-21, 10-2 (7-2)

Final Notes

Michigan State is a bonafide contender, especially with both Michigan and Ohio State traveling to their house.  Picking them to lose both is the exact thing that could make me look like an idiot by the end of the year.  So why did I fall into such an obvious trap?  Well, simply put OSU has the better qb situation in August and Michigan has a little bit better talent in the trenches to me sitting here in August.  Still, the margins feel razor-thin and I expect 10 to 12 wins for this team and a season long top 15 ranking because this program has entered “machine mode” where I never expect a step back.