Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2016 Michigan

Michigan welcomed Jim Harbaugh last year and by now all football fans know the rub on him – you get a ton of wins but the marriage might not be a long one.  In fact, when the Indianapolis Colts’ season took a turn last year, the rumor mill got churning with Harbaugh leaving Ann Arbor after just a year.  It’s not clear if there was any fire with the smoke but it is a reminder how popular the UM coach is and will have his pick of NFL gigs if he ever wants to bolt his alma mater.  But he’s still in town and based on his debut season, the rest of the league is looking at a Michigan program walking with a lot of swagger, something they haven’t had since the Lloyd Carr days.

Let’s pause for a moment and give Brady Hoke some love.  The coach built a fantastic defense and signed Jake Butt among other key players for Harbaugh’s brilliant debut season.  Football has always been a business and sometimes it can be cruel.  Hoke was a hard worker, skillful defensive mind, and in his dream job.  The stars just didn’t align for him but I think Oregon will love what he brings to their staff.

Last season opened with an extremely difficult game in Salt Lake City.  Many observers, self included (shameless!), felt a road trip to a rugged Utes club, in altitude, and a new coach with new players was a tall order.  Deep down I think even the most optimistic Wolverine fans felt the same.  After Utah spoiled the opener, Michigan got hot immediately.  They ripped off five straight wins – Oregon State, UNLV, BYU, at Maryland, and Northwestern.  They gave up a total of 14 points and the last three were shutouts.  You read that right, trust me.  All things were go against Michigan State to right the world and finally beat little brother…then it happened.

I’m not sure anyone will forget that play but in case you did feel free to YouTube the ending.  I’ll spare my Michigan friends from going into details but suffice it to say, Michigan State stunned the Wolverines in the big house.  UM survived a test from Minnesota, crushed Rutgers, knocked off Indiana in an overtime epic, and dominated Penn State to get to 9-2 (6-1) before The Game.  The wonderful season had a bit of a let down as Michigan’s defense collapsed and the offense struggled once Rudock got hurt but the romp of Florida in a New Year’s Day bowl let the season end on a high note with a 10-3 (6-2) final mark.

Harbaugh knew Hoke had the defense humming so that became the identity of this team as the Harbaugh mentored the offense, specifically grooming the quarterback which is his bread and butter.  Their 17.2 points per game allowed was 11th in the country as D.J. Durkin coordinated the D.  While Durkin is headed to Maryland to be the head coach, Michigan replaced him with Don Brown who was the Boston College DC last season.  BC was awful a year ago but that had nothing to do with the defense.  Brown’s side of the ball was the number one ranked D a year ago and was all the way down at 4th at points against average at a salty 15.3 paa.  All this despite facing ACC powers Clemson and Florida State as well as quasi ACC member Notre Dame.  As solid as Durkin is, there’s a chance Brown is even better calling defenses.

Brown inherits a pretty good unit.  Safety / LB(?) Jabrill Peppers is fantastic and the line is anchored by Chris Wormley but the riches don’t end there.  Jourdan Lewis is a solid corner and Rashan Gary is one of the top recruits in the nation might not even start for this experience-packed line.  Notice something though?  Yes, the linebacker position is breaking in all new players with each of them lacking consistency.  The issue has been so great that Peppers has been bounced around a bit in spring and summer to shake things up.  It is a concern but the talent everywhere else is so great, I don’t see the defense falling apart.  Maybe they won’t be as amazing as last year, but I’d be shocked if they aren’t still a  top-30 outfit.

The offense finished 54th in scoring with 31.0 ppg and the passing attack was 55th in the nation, both hovering around average.  The rushing attack struggled at times settling at 93rd in the country but a lot of promise was shown with individual talent, even if it didn’t fully click as a unit.  Harbaugh molded grad transfer Jake Rudock into a solid qb with over 3000 yards, 64 completion %, 20 TDs and 9 INTs but he has graduated so this creates one of the biggest questions about Michigan – who will be the starting QB?

Ignoring freshman Brandon Peters, who comes highly touted but too young, this race seems to be down to three people.  The least likely to win the job is Shane Morris.  Morris is a holdover from the Hoke regime which tried to use athletic QBs like Denard Robinson.  Word is he will be a receiving option and probably third on the depth chart at qb.  That leaves last year’s back up Wilton Speight and transfer John O’Korn.

O’Korn was masterful in 2013 with Houston when he tossed 28 TDs to 10 picks and over 3100 yards.  He struggled in 2014 before losing his job to Greg Ward Jr.  I think we know how that panned out for Houston so he transferred to Michigan and sat out last year.  Looking back on his 2013 season you do see a few issues.  Houston lost 5 games and in four of them they were held to under 24 points.  A lot goes into offense obviously but O’Korn was under 60% as a passer for the year and when you put 62 on Southern, 59 on UTSA, 49 on Rutgers, and 46 on BYU in a losing effort, it begins to look like O’Korn is a compiler against bad teams.  Naturally that leads to a valid concern: is he able to hack it against Big Ten level defenses.

Speight played sparingly last year with 14 of his 25 attempts coming in relief of an injured Rudock against Ohio State.  He completed just 9 of his passes for the season and six of those were in that OSU game.  Sure he looked a little lost but it was against the Buckeyes in a blowout.  He looked crisp in the spring game and should be the opening day starter.  That doesn’t mean he will keep his job though.  There are very real concerns about both of these quarterbacks and the answer that Harbaugh is a QB whisperer is all well and good but let’s give some credit to Jake Rudock.  He was a two year starter at Iowa so had the chops to be a Big Ten quarterback until C.J. Beathard, one of the best signal callers in the league, beat him out.  His pre-UM resume was a lot better than O’Korn’s and obviously he won the job over Speight in camp last year.  To automatically assume Michigan will be humming at quarterback is silly.  They can certainly get there, but to just pencil Michigan into the college football playoff without examining their qb issues is blind faith.

Helping matters is one of the best receiving corps in the entire nation.  Leading receivers Jehu Chesson, Amara Darboh, and TE Jake Butt are all back.  De’Veon Smith, the leading rusher, is also back and proved helpful in the passing attack.  The OL was good at keeping Rudock clean a year ago and should be solid in pass protection again but let’s circle back to the ground game.  93rd in the nation won’t cut it.  Smith showed potential last year but averaged just 4.2 yards per last year and held under 100 in the final 7 regular season games of the year.  Of those 7, four were under 50 yard days!  Again, not going to cut it.  Michigan’s ceiling is intoxicating but there are enough questions.  Without finding answers for those questions, they won’t make Indianapolis.  It’s that simple.

2016 Schedule

Hawai’i

• Best Case – Rainbow Warriors went 3-9 and winless in the Mountain West last year.  1-0
• Worst Case – They were also shutout 3 times.  Defense will feast.  1-0
• Prediction – W, 38-0 (yup, same score as the OSU game last year for UH, why not?), 1-0

Central Florida

• BC – UCF has two Big Ten teams on their schedule?  Are we sure the league isn’t expanding to Orlando?  2-0
• WC – UCF went 0-12 a year ago, Michigan will romp.  2-0
• P – W, 35-3, 2-0

Colorado

• BC – The Buffs were just 4-9 a season ago and lost to Hawai’i.  3-0
• WC – UC was improved a season ago with some close calls in league and were robbed by an officiating gaffe against Hawai’i but even if they make a bowl game this year they aren’t up to the task of this road trip.  3-0
• P – Just as Big Ten teams struggle when going west, Pac 12 teams struggle when coming east.  W, 35-7, 3-0

Penn State

• BC – UM’s defense handcuffed the Nittany Lions last year.  The defense repeats that performance.  4-0
• WC – PSU had solid defense last year, too and several top 25 recruiting classes means this is a dangerous team.  Facing their first real defense all year, the qb concerns cause an early loss.  3-1
• P – The only thing these teams have in common is some question about who will take the reins as the quarterback because everything else seems to favor the Wolverines, including having home field.  W, 28-10, 4-0 (1-0)

Wisconsin

• BC – Stop me if you have heard this before, a Big Ten team with quarterback play questions!  5-0
• WC – Badgers return some key pieces on defense and are an OL farm.  Possibly, just possibly they stun Michigan.  3-2
• P – Badgers have a nightmare schedule during this part of the season and they have the talent to steal one or two but I think the odds of them nabbing this one are no better than 35%.  Michigan just has too much talent and is the home club.  W, 24-10, 5-0 (2-0)

At Rutgers

• BC – Michigan steamrolled Rutgers last year.  Rinse, wash, repeat.  6-0
• WC – Even if Michigan’s qb situation never sorts itself out, the ground game struggles again, and the defense takes a step back I really don’t see any path to victory for the Scarlet Knights in this one.  4-2
• P – Michigan knows that to make Indy they cannot afford an upset in the stacked East.  They remain focus and drill the worst club in the division.  W, 45-14, 6-0 (3-0)

Illinois

• BC – UI’s offensive line was a cause for concern last year, UM’s defense is expected to blitz a lot with Don Brown’s aggressive style.  Uh-oh.  7-0
• WC – Illinois’s defense wasn’t a joke and Lovie Smith and gang should improve this side of the ball even more.  Perhaps an insane defensive effort against a struggling O’Korn / Speight allows for a jaw-dropper.  4-3
• P – Pretty simple recipe, better talent plus home field is almost always a victory.  W, 31-13, 7-0 (4-0)

At Michigan State

• BC – Revenge!  All is right in the mitten as big brother wins the rivalry.  8-0
• WC – MSU’s rebuilt OL and DL hold up and the Spartan’s also win the battle of new gunslingers.  4-4
• P – Michigan nearly won this game a year ago when the Spartan’s had outstanding line play.  With so many new faces in the trenches and a new quarterback, I have concerns about Michigan State repeating last year’s title run.  This was one of the hardest games for me to pick but my questions about State, I’m leaning 51% to 49% towards UM.  Should be tight, could even be an OT thriller.  W, 24-21, 8-0 (5-0)

Maryland

• BC – Four more quarters of shutout ball for the Wolverines.  9-0
• WC – Very difficult to see an over achieving Terps club winning in Ann Arbor even if everything goes wrong for Michigan.  5-4
• P – Improved Maryland defense slows Michigan a little bit, but in the end Michigan wins by two touchdowns thanks to their defense locking down the turtles.  W, 28-14, 9-0 (6-0)

At Iowa

• BC – Thanks to some upsets, Michigan is now the #1 ranked team in the land.  10-0
• WC – With so much returning defensive talent, Iowa is the real deal and looking at a second straight undefeated regular season.  5-5
• P – Iowa is more set at qb, boasts a lot of defensive skill players, and is at home.  The fact that I’m also an Iowa fan makes me want to see an upset, but Michigan’s talent is scary.  Iowa certainly can win, but it is really hard to envision it here in August when all we have to go on is recruiting and depth chart talent.  W, 28-21, 10-0 (7-0)

Indiana

• BC – The starters are pulled in the third during a rout that acts as a nice tune up before The Game.  11-0
• WC – I know this was an overtime thriller last year but the Hoosiers had arguably the league’s best quarterback last season.  IU doesn’t have that luxury this year.  6-5
• P – Even without Sudfeld, I still kind of like this Indiana team.  They have the horses to hang around for a half, maybe even three quarters, but in the end the home advantage and edge in talent results in another victory.  W, 31-17, 11-0 (8-0)

At Ohio State

• BC – MSU, check.  OSU, check.  B1G title, check.  CFP, check.  National title, hmmm.  12-0
• WC – Season long struggles at linebacker and quarterback with another 90s ranked rushing attack result in a bowl, but a big step back from last year’s double-digit win club.  6-6
• P – Ohio State only returns a handful of starters but they have the most sure thing at quarterback with J.T. Barrett back.  The best time to knock off Ohio State is early and at home or a neutral site.  Michigan catches Ohio State right when they should be rounding into form and at the shoe.  I don’t see another stomping like last year, but UM waits at least one more agonizing year before finally knocking the Bucks off.  L, 28-24, 11-1 (8-1)

 

Final Notes

The bottom line about Michigan is really quite simple.  They appear to have a conference championship level defense and conference championship level skill position set.  All that stands in their way is if they can find some championship level quarterback play and a stronger run game to keep defenses honest.  If they can check those two boxes, we will see this club in Indy and possibly beyond.