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Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2016 Northwestern

From 2008 to 2011 Pat Fitzgerald guided his alma mater to four straight bowls and a 30-22 (16-16) mark and this growth exploded in a 10-win 2012 that included the first bowl win for the Wildcats since 1948.  The season failed to spring load NU as they went 10-14 (4-12) after a pair of 5-7 seasons in 2013/2014.  The prospects looked slim for much improvement last year, in fact, I picked them to go 3-9 and winless in the Big Ten.  The biggest difference in predicting the season versus how it turned out was how well the defense played.  They finished 7th in scoring and were top 5 against both the rush and pass.  To have a prayer at making a bowl, this unit has to match those lofty numbers because this schedule is a doozy.  Hang on, I teased them winning just 3 games but what did they really do and why did I bring up their last 10 win team?  Hmm.

The season opened with hosting Stanford.  The Wildcats won by yielding just six points in a ten point victory.  The Cardinal really didn’t know what they had yet as Christian McCaffery touched the ball just 12 times as a rusher.  Not nearly enough.  NU then trashed FCS Eastern Illinois before an impressive road victory at Duke.  The Cats then slipped by Ball State in a narrow five point victory before their best game of the season, a 27-0 shutout of Minnesota.  5-0, hot damn things were all systems go.

The cracks showed in the next two games as Michigan dominated en route to a 38-0 romp.  A week later Iowa strolled into Ryan Field and won 40-10.  Credit the team, especially the defense, for rediscovering their footing and winning out in this order: at Nebraska (by 2), PSU (by 2), Purdue (by 3), at Wisconsin (13-7 in a game in which UW coughed the ball up 5 times), and Illinois (by 10).  10-2 and off to the Outback Bowl on January 1st where Tennessee promptly dropped them like third period French in a 45-6 blowout.

So the first question is – was this team as good as a 10 win club?  No.  They may have had 10 wins but how many 10 win teams are demolished 123-16 in their losses?  NU over achieved to get to ten wins.  That leads to the follow-up – was the defense as good as their numbers?  No again.  Take a look at these scoring offensive numbers NU went against in their wins:

  • 19th (Stanford)
  • 47th (Nebraska)
  • 55th (Duke)
  • 83rd (Wisconsin)
  • 95th (Purdue)
  • 98th (Illinois)
  • 100th (Minnesota)
  • 104th (Penn State)
  • 105th (Ball State)
  • EIU averaged 23.58 per game a year ago, that would have been 99th in FBS last year

There were 128 FCS teams last season, so upper half is 64th and better.  NU played exactly 3 clubs that fit that criteria and one was in the opening week and was played at 9 am body time for Stanford.  So to reiterate, Northwestern was statistically the 7th best defense but not when adjusted for their opponents.

The last question is how good is the offense?  Answer, not good.  Despite having the 38th best rushing game they were woefully imbalanced sitting at just 120th in passing and a paltry 108th in scoring.  Lastly the lack of talent you would expect with Northwestern’s recruiting difficulties reared its ugly head in the trio of blowouts they experienced.

Have I made the case they weren’t as good their 10 wins indicated?  Good!  Now, can they compete this year?  Well, their best player returns in RB Justin Jackson – a 1400 yard back last year.  They also have their starting QB back but I’m not convinced that’s a good thing.  Clayton Thorson had just 1500 yards, 50.8%, 5.16 yards per attempt, 7 TDs, and 9 INTs.  His best attribute are his feet as he finished second on the team in rushing.  Their WR group was so bad last year that a defensive back and RB are switching positions and expecting to start.  The OL showed some potential last year but outside Jackson, the skill positions are pretty slim.

Defensively they have a solid back line with corner Matthew Harris and safety Godwin Igwebuike.  LB Anthony Walker is the real deal so returning all three is encouraging.  The DL had some turnover but still returns a few starters so while it make take a few games to completely gel, the line shouldn’t be too bad, either.  If NU hopes to make a bowl game or even sniff 10 wins again, the defense can’t finish in the top ten statistically, they need to actually be one of the nation’s best defenses.

2016 Schedule

Western Michigan

  • Best Case – Western was a five loss MAC team a year ago.  1-0
  • Worst Case – As I said in the Illinois preview, Western has a veteran qb and an up-tempo passing attack.  Seeing the Broncos in the MAC title game wouldn’t surprise anyone who follows that league so an upset is possible.  0-1
  • Prediction – Western has a lot of weapons that I outline in that UI preview but Northwestern is at home and 10-1 in openers under Fitz.  They keep that trend alive.  W, 21-17, 1-0

Illinois State

  • BC – A better version of this ISU team lost to the Hawkeyes last year and I don’t see any FCS team knocking off a Big Ten team this year.  2-0
  • WC – Redbirds went to the FCS title game in 2013 and won 10 games a year ago.  They aren’t your usual pushover FCS club and taking on an in-state foe always gives the smaller school an extra boost but Indiana transfer Tre Roberson graduated and I doubt they have enough qb play to get past NU’s defense.  1-1
  • P – W, 35-0, 2-0

Duke

  • BC – Duke started 6-1 last year.  That one?  Northwestern.  3-0
  • WC – Thomas Sirk is a solid QB and was the leading rusher.  He is also back for his senior year.  I realize he is hurt rehabbing right now but wouldn’t it be worse case for NU if he was healthy to go in this one?  Additionally, the Devils were pretty good overall winning 8 games, including a bowl.  1-2
  • P – This feels like a toss-up.  Personally, I would even say Duke is maybe a 51 or 52 to 49 or 48 percent odds favorite but that isn’t enough to sway me to pick against the home club.  Sirk is awesome but difficult to see a one-man show work against NU’s defense, even if he is 100% by this game.  W, 17-10, 3-0

Nebraska

  • BC – The defense maintains their top-10 standard and the offense takes an unforeseen step in the right direction, resulting in an unblemished opening month.  4-0
  • WC – The offense remains anemic and the close wins from last year are turning into close losses.  1-3
  • P – Tommy Armstrong Jr. shredded the strength of NU’s defense a year ago but the Husker defense completely crapped the sheets in the 30-28 loss.  Blackshirts won’t be vintage 90s style but they will be better than last year.  L, 28-24, 3-1 (0-1)

At Iowa

  • BC – Fitzy hates Iowa (or so the legend goes) but whatever the case, he does have a pretty good mark against the Hawks.  5-0
  • WC – A repeat of last year’s debacle.  1-4
  • P – Up 16-10 at the half, Iowa used a 24-0 second half to crush NU.  They held the Cats to 51 rushing yards and forced 3 turnovers.  A lot of key pieces from that Hawkeye defense are back and the Kinnick faithful push Iowa to the victory.  L, 28-14, 3-2 (0-2)

At Michigan State

  • BC – Difficult to know how good the Spartans will be without Connor Cook.  Perhaps a defensive gem allows NU to pick up a massive road victory, kicking off a run for Indy.  6-0
  • WC – Outside QB questions, Michigan State is better than Northwestern at almost every other position.  Plus they are at home.  Blowout!  1-5
  • P – The Dantonio era has become what Michigan was with Bo, OSU with Woody, Minnesota with Bernie, Penn State with Joe Pa, Iowa with Evy, and many other hot streaks for Big Ten clubs.  It is a program that has an identity (physical defense), sticks to that when times are rough, and reloads rather than rebuilds.  I don’t know if Michigan State can navigate their rivals or the Bucks again this season but they won’t go down without a fight and that means holding home serve against a team like Northwestern.  L, 21-10, 3-3 (0-3)

Indiana

  • BC – One of the ways NU won 10 games last season was by not losing any of the dumb ones (i.e. Purdue).  No matter how improved the Hoosiers get, they will always be perceived as a dumb one to lose.  7-0
  • WC – Indiana’s offense has the potential to pace the league if they have a quarterback be in the neighborhood of Sudfeld’s production, the skill position groups are that strong around whoever wins the job.  1-6
  • P – I have the Hoosiers sort of being like this year’s Northwestern in respects of a team that wins a lot more than they should and maybe steals a game they wouldn’t most years.  This is one of those games.  Hoosiers pick up a critical road victory for their bowl plans.  L, 31-28, 3-4 (0-4)

At Ohio State

  • BC – The defense could be the best in the nation and I still don’t think Northwestern has enough playmakers to win this game in the shoe.  7-1
  • WC – Bowl hopes dashed as OSU hangs half a hundred on Fitz’s crew.  1-7
  • P – OSU has the talent to put 8 men in the box and go with single coverage with their corners to shut down everything NU wants to do.  Could be a sub 200 yard day for the Purple players from Paulina (Chicago street) – that nickname sort of works.  Not great, gimme time.  L, 45-6, 3-5 (0-5)

Wisconsin

  • BC – After their first league loss, NU gets back on track with another defensive gem  against Bucky.  8-1
  • WC – Northwestern scored 13 points in a game that they had 5 takeaways.  I don’t believe for a second NU was better than UW last year no matter the results.  1-8
  • P – Wisconsin is a notch below MSU but they are similar in that they are more talented than NU and pretty much plug and play with new pieces all the time.  Plus 5 turnovers is pretty silly, I don’t see that happening again.  L, 24-21, 3-6 (0-6)

At Purdue

  • BC – Thanks to tiebreakers over UW, Iowa, and Nebraska the soft landing in the final three games puts Northwestern in fantastic shape for their first title game trip.  9-1
  • WC – The offense is dead last in the league and with no bowl to play for complacency slips in to that defense.  The result is a staggering loss at Ross Aide.  1-9
  • P – I think you can tell by now that I’m not expecting NU’s offense to make the steps required to navigate such a difficult schedule but for the most part the defense is keeping their opponent in the 20s.  Thankfully Purdue is exactly what the doctor ordered.  W, 21-10, 4-6 (1-6)

At Minnesota

  • BC – UM is similar to NU – questionable quarterback play, nice running back, a lot of pressure on the defense.  If Minnesota’s season looks like the worst case I have NU in right now, the Cats can take a step closer to clinching Indy up in the twin cities.  10-1
  • WC – Of course just like NU’s best case, Minnesota’s best case is also a trip to Indianapolis if the stars align.  1-10
  • P – I have a sneaking suspicion the loser of this game fails to reach a bowl.  Unfortunately for Northwestern they come out on the wrong end of my usual toss-up game and pick the home team.  I take solace in knowing the for as much as I rip Leidner, he is still better than Thorson so UM has the edge under center.  L, 17-14, 4-7 (1-7)

Illinois

  • BC – Illinois’s OL is a mystery right now.  Sometimes that translates to a long season.  NU clinches Indianapolis and hold a top-10 ranking as they head to the big one.  11-1
  • WC – Illinois uses NU’s template last year with a fantastic defense and just enough offense to pick up some wins and heads to a pretty good bowl.  1-11
  • P – With a bowl off the tables and Illinois in contention for one, the Fighting Illini come to the game with something to play for and responds.  UI takes a defensive battle.  L, 24-14, 4-8 (1-8)

Final Notes

Northwestern lacks the quarterback or receiving corps to improve their offense much more than the weak output they had a year ago.  Defensively they should still be good but this schedule is much, much more difficult than the one they had to navigate a year ago.  Cross-over games with MSU and OSU are bad enough but to have both on the road?  That’s a killer.  Throw in games in Iowa City and Minneapolis and you can see how much of a ringer this schedule really is.  Illinois, and Indiana could be flipped but I like Lunt at Illinois and Indiana’s skill positions better than what the ‘Cats are bringing to the game.  No matter how you slice it, getting to a bowl would make this season a success but I’m prepared for a losing record.

 

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