Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2016 Penn State

He’s baaaaack!  And by he, I mean James Franklin – the man who ruined Christian Hackenberg and is trying to do the same to Penn State.  Okay, that second part might be hyperbole but the first part isn’t.  Entering his third year, Franklin is 14-12 (6-10) with the Nittany Lions but has failed to deliver a marquee win and worse, his club fell apart down the stretch last season.

Things started ominously with a loss to Temple, tho Owls first win over PSU since 1941.  Part of the problem was the whopping 10 sacks allowed on the blue chip quarterback.  The Lions rebounded though with 5 straight wins – Buffalo, Rutgers, SDSU, Army, and Indiana – although it wasn’t too polished.  The Army game for example was a 20-14 grind.  The streak was halted by a four touchdown loss at Ohio State.  Still, PSU was 7-2 (4-1) after back-to-back victories over Maryland and Illinois.  If they took care of business there was a shot at Indy.  Instead Penn State nose-dived.  They would not win again.  Northwestern slipped by them in a 2 point win, Michigan suffocated PSU by holding them to just 207 yards, and MSU creamed them 55-16.  The time off for a bowl didn’t matter as Georgia knocked them off to result in a 7-6 (4-4) final tally.

Despite the flat finish and 55 dropped on them, PSU’s defense was 30th nationally, allowing just 21.7 ppg.  Unfortunately, it is hard to see this unit being as good.  For starters, DC Bob Shoop took the same position at Tennessee.  Secondly, the outstanding defensive line saw a lot of turnover, including Ryan Nassib.  Although Nassib’s numbers dipped as the season went on a lot of that has to do with how insane his numbers were to start the year and he faced more and more double teams and backs chipping.  Regardless of how his season played out, 15.5 sacks is outstanding and led the nation.  While the DL may be a work in progress the linebacking group, albeit thin, and the secondary should still be solid – but I’m not sold that is going to be enough to make up for Shoop’s departure and the new-look front.

Offensively Penn State stunk.  They were just 104th in scoring, 106th in rushing and a whopping 82nd in passing.  All of this has to do with the worst offensive line in the league last year.  Hackenberg was sacked 38 times.  Even without the 10 Temple laid on him, 28 is a staggering number.  In comparison, Illinois which had a pretty smelly OL only gave up 19 sacks.  What is scary is that in 2013, Hackenberg was sacked 44 times so Frnaklin knew protection was an issue and yet nothing changed.  As a result the highly regarded qb left his senior year on the table to become a second round pick.  Bottom line is it doesn’t matter that Saquon Barkley looks like the real deal if the OL plays like a cullender again.  New OC, Joe Moorhead, hopes to bring a no-huddle look to PSU to speed things up.  That can be a rocky transition and if the already terrible line is fatigued, then how will it help?  Color me unimpressed.

2016 Schedule

Kent State

• Best Case – The Golden Flashes were 3-9 a year ago and played a FCS school to pad that meager total.  1-0
• Worst Case – Illinois dropped 52 on this team last year.  1-0
• Prediction – Kent State is a soft game for their own conference.  Penn State has no excuses for this one even being close.  W, 38-6, 1-0

At Pittsburgh

• BC – Pitt wasn’t flawless last year dropping five games, including one to Miami who of course fired their coach mid-season!  2-0
• WC – That’s a little misleading with Miami because they rallied after Golden was fired to win 8 games.  In fact, the 5 teams that beat Pitt last year were a combined 52-15 and none of the 5 were like the Sun Belt champ or something with an inflated record.  The five teams were Iowa, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Navy, as as mentioned Miami.  All totally legit teams.  Are we sure Penn State is legit?  1-1
• P – Predictably, Narduzzi set the tone with the 49th ranked defense last season but the eight wins were quite the surprise for the debut coach.  Pitt is a challenger in the ACC with that D, QB Nathan Peterman who had 20 TDs to just 8 picks, RB Qadree Ollison and a cancer free James Conner.  Losing wideout Tyler Boyd and TE J.P. Holtz  is rough but Dontez Ford was a nice second option to Boyd last year and should continue to rise.  I love this Pitt team and them getting PSU at home should give the Panthers a rare packed crowd at Heinz Field.  L, 24-20, 1-1

Temple

• BC – Tyler Matakevich, the insanely good Temple LB who had quite the hand in the 10 sacks last year is now getting paid for his tackling ability in the NFL.  3-0
• WC – P.J. Walker tossed 19 TDs to 8 picks last year and is up to 52 finding the end zone to 31 interceptions in his solid career so far.  He also has some pep in his step, finishing second to Jahad Thomas in rushing last year.  Thomas was a 1200 yard back and, oh yeah, both players are back for one of the American conference favorites.  1-2
• P – Matt Rhule as created quite the little team over in Philly and even without Matakevich, I expect the 16th ranked defense from a year ago to still be a pretty salty outfit.  The problem is this game has the feeling of a toss-up and when I get that feeling, I usually take the home team.  PSU escapes, possibly even in OT.  W, 27-24, 2-1

At Michigan

• BC – Penn State has had 3 straight top 25 recruiting classes.  At some point they put everything together and maybe, just maybe, this is the year it all clicks.  4-0
• WC – Of course there is a reason all that talent has paid off yet and that problem is James Franklin.  1-3
• P – Both teams have questions at quarterback but that is about the only thing these two clubs have in common.  Oh, UM is also the home team.  Done and done.  L, 28-10, 2-2 (0-1)

Minnesota

• BC – With all due respect to the Gophers, Penn State is the more talented team.  Plus they are at home.  5-0
• WC – There’s a feeling that Minnesota could be boom or bust this year.  If it is boom for the kids in maroon and PSU struggles up front again, anything is possible.  1-4
• P – Minnesota has a pretty good running back and an above average defense.  For those that love QB Mitch Leidner, they are talking UM up as much as a sleeper pick to win the West.  For the rest of us, we have UM losing games like this.  W, 28-17, 3-2 (1-1)

Maryland

• BC – Regardless of how improved Maryland is – and they could be defensively – PSU should still win this game.  6-0
• WC – Did you know that PSU beat Maryland 31-30 last year?  Terps have a slim shot, especially if the Lion OL is terrible again.  1-5
• P – Game has a little bit of a toss-up feel to it so I’ll defer to the home team.  Making this pick a little easier are those 3 straight top 25 recruiting classes telling me the talent also favors PSU.  W, 24-17, 4-2 (2-1)

Ohio State

• BC – Two years ago PSU took the Bucks into overtime.  Happy Valley is never, ever fun to go to.  PSU is up to 10th.  7-0
• WC – The trajectory of those two teams since that OT battle has been staggering.  Buckeyes are one of the machines in college football.  1-6
• P – This was a 28 point game a year ago, PSU was awful on third down, struggled to get to 300 yards and was thoroughly outclassed.  I don’t see home field shifting things dramatically enough for Franklin’s squad to compete in this one.  L, 35-14, 4-3 (2-2)

At Purdue

• BC – You can’t ask for an easier road trip than this one.  8-0
• WC – Up to this point Franklin has avoided the morale-killing loss that turns his seat up to red-hot.  He continues that trend, avoiding the always disastrous 7th loss for another week.  2-6
• P – The Lion defense turns in a gem against one of the weakest team’s in the league.  W, 21-3, 5-3 (3-2)

Iowa

• BC – OSU, MSU, Iowa all at home with road trips to Rutgers, Purdue and Indiana?  If there is ever a time to put it all together, this is the year.  9-0
• WC – Iowa had the 15th ranked defense a season ago.  If PSU’s OL is a mess again, Hawks could rack up the sacks.  2-7
• P – Can I recuse myself?  This is such a tough game to pick.  One one hand I am an Iowa fan so that comes with certain biases.  On the other hand I really dislike how Franklin coaches this team so that creates other biases.  I’ll try to be objective as hard as that is.  Iowa has a better OL, better QB situation, and a lot of key pieces back on defense.  PSU is rebuilding their DL, lost their DC, and has questions at QB.  I also believe Ferentz is a better coach and has a chip on his shoulder about being a Pennsylvania boy who never got the call from PSU.  Hawks in a nail-biter.  L, 28-24, 5-4 (3-3)

At Indiana

• BC – Lions are now top 5!  10-0
• WC – I sort of have the feeling that when it goes, it is going to be a full-blown Hindenburg for PSU.  A loss in Bloomington would be an 8.5 of the zeppelin-disaster scale.  2-8
• P – Franklin has avoided the super-duper hot seat so far by avoiding a Big Ten no-no (i.e. losing to Purdue) and will continue to do so.  W, 27-24, 6-4 (4-3)

At Rutgers

• BC – An easy tune-up road trip before a massive showdown in their finale.  11-0
• WC – With nothing to play for, a coach about to be fired, and Rutgers playing with an edge against one of their geographic rivals the Scarlet Knights stun PSU.  2-9
• P – Rutgers will be improved, especially defensively, but still won’t have the horses to pull this one-off.  Another ho-hum PSU shoulder shrug of a win.  W, 21-17, 7-4 (5-3)

Michigan State

• BC – Last year MSU clinched a trip to Indy by embarrassing the Lions at home.  PSU returns the favor on their senior night and head to Lucas Oil a win away from the playoffs.  12-0
• WC – With Franklin’s firing announced before the game, the classy PSU fans give him a hardy round of applause and thank the seniors before MSU walks all over them again.  2-10
• P – Dantonio is a chip on the shoulder guy.  Born and raised in El Paso (chip versus San Antonio, Houston, and Dallas) he played at South Carolina (chip versus Clemson, ACC and SEC schools as an independent back then), worked at Youngstown State (huge chip as a rust belt city), worked at Kansas (yeah, they’re a little envious), worked at MSU and when jilted by Saban and stayed loyal to Bobby Williams.  Later he was reunited with Jim Tressel at OSU and then finally got to be a head man!….at Cincy (OSU doesn’t even bother to play them).  That attitude has made him build a machine at MSU.  I don’t see this program really rebuilding nowadays but simply reloading or doing minor tweaks with new guys.  Besides, 55-16 is a whole lot of points to swing just by playing the game in Beaver Stadium.  L, 28-21, 7-5 (5-4)

Final Notes

At no point in the last two years has Franklin looked like the right man for the job of taking PSU over the hump to be a legit threat to MSU or OSU (and now Michigan).  He is a masterful recruiter but at some point you have to win.  While the talent is there for a 12-0 season, the fact of the matter is this team will stumble along the way to settle for 7 or 8 wins.  Is that enough for Franklin to keep his job?  Probably.  Does it mean this program is any closer to recapturing its glory of multiple national titles in the 80s?  Nope.