Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2016 Minnesota

2015 was a bittersweet season for our Big Ten friends from up north.  Beloved coach Jerry Kill had a relapse of his epilepsy / seizure disorder and resigned mid-season.  Long time DC Tracy Claeys was promoted to interim coach for two games before having that tag removed for the final 3.  The season ended on a high note however with a bowl victory, the first postseason win for the Gophers since 2004 and snapping a 7 game bowl skid.  With some intriguing returning talent and a much easier schedule than the last few years (TCU in the non-con was both admirable and grueling) there are some observers going as far as to say that UM could pull an Iowa and make a run for Indy.

The season started with a hard fought game against TCU that the Frogs eventually won 23-17.  Goldy ripped off three straight tight wins over Colorado State (by 3, in OT), Kent State (by 3), and Ohio (by 3)* before dropping the league opener to Northwestern in a 27-0 rout.  UM crushed Purdue to bounce back and sitting pretty at 4-2 but that’s when things hit the skids.  Nebraska hung 48 points on them in a blowout loss and that would be the final game of Kill’s tenure.  The team rallied in a rivalry game against Michigan but lost by 3.  Next came losses to OSU and Iowa that were also competitive.  A ten point win over Illinois brought the mark to 5-6 before the big date with Wisconsin.  UW won that game 31-21 to claim the axe for the 12th straight year and pushes it 22-6 since the last good Gopher streak in the mid 1980s.  Thanks to there being a million bowls and not enough 6-6 teams this year, Minnesota joined Nebraska as a 5-7 bowl team.  Minnesota beat Central Michigan to wrap up the campaign at 6-7 (2-6).

*Ohio was in field goal range, just before the snap Minnesota called time out to ice the kicker, Ohio still snapped and the kicker still kicked.  Made it.  For some reason the ref called a delay of game penalty despite seeing every kicker do this in every game there is an icing moment.  The penalty took the Bobcats out of FG range so they tried a hail Mary.  God there was some bad officiating last year.

Kill / Claeys always had the reputation of gritty defenses and while this unit played well at times they ended up averaging 26.1 ppg which was only 59th in the nation – pretty average but the offense was even worse, ending as the 100th ranked scoring offense, 74th in passing, and 101st in rushing.  Those terrible numbers resulted in Clayes shaking up the offensive staff by dumping the OC and QB coach.  The move begs the question though, was it the staff or the talent?

Under center is Mitch Leidner, one of the more divisive players in the league.  One one hand he has improved his completion percentage 8 whole points between 2014 and 2015.  He is also a big frame, has some fleet of foot moments and a nose for the end zone with 6 rushing touchdowns.  On the flip side he had just 14 TD passes to 11 INTs and for his career he is up to 28 TDs to 20 INTs.  His adjusted qbr and yards per attempt also dipped.  Lastly he just doesn’t seem to have that consistency you look for.  For example against Ohio he was 22/31, 264 yards and the next game he turns around and goes for 10/21, 72 yards.  Yes, Northwestern’s defense was better than Ohio’s but really?  That is one hell of a swing.  To me Leidner a back up at almost any other Big Ten school and at the lower level group of 5 or FCS school would shred opponents up, but he is a marginal starter in this league and simply not good enough, enough of the time, to put the Gopher’s on his shoulders to take the program to the next level.

Still the Gophers have a pretty nice OL, a solid tight end in Brandon Lingen, a solid RB tandem led by Shannon Brooks with Rodney Smith being a nice complementary, and lastly Drew Wolitarsky at WR so if Leidner can cut down on the picks and be a little more consistent, one would think Minnesota’s meager offense can pack a little more punch this year.

As for the defense they should be pretty similar to last year.  The secondary has some new faces but the new cogs were well-regarded recruits.  The line needs to generate more of a pass rush but is healthier and a little deeper than last year.  The real strength of this unit is the linebacking corps led by All-league performer Jack Lynn.  The senior has the ability to stop the run, rush the quarterback, and cover in the open field.  He is a sure tackler and critical for this defense to maintain its current standing and hopefully improve on it if Minnesota wants to contend in the West.

2016 Schedule

Oregon State

• Best Case – The Beavers were an unmitigated disaster in Gary Andersen’s first year going 2-10, failed to win a league game, posted the 114th scoring offense, and the 115th scoring defense.  1-0
• Worst Case – OSU actually got worse as the season went on, their final three games they gave up half a hundred in each and in their fourth to last were shutout 41-0.  They also played an FCS school to pad the mark.  Oh yeah, the history of Pac 12 teams making the trip east is as bad as Big Ten clubs heading west.  1-0
• Prediction – I’ve always had a soft spot in my heart for Oregon State.  Love the colors, love their upsets of USC, and love how scrappy they are in the face of Oregon’s Nike money but Mike Riley drove that ship right into an iceberg and Gary Andersen is being asked to lead the evacuation.  They were one of the worst power league teams a year ago and will battle for the honor again this season.  W, 38-7, 1-0

Indiana State

• BC – The Sycamores went just 5-6 (3-5) in the Missouri Valley Football Conference, aka the FCS’s SEC.  2-0
• WC – Purdue beat this team by 24 last year so I like Minnesota’s chances.  2-0
• P – When FCS schools beat FBS teams it falls under the category of a) chip on the shoulder for an in-state club (i.e. James Madison over Virginia Tech) b) The FBS team is truly awful (i.e. Kansas) and c) the FCS team is extremely talented but the FBS team is too cocky (i.e. App State over Michigan).  Does this game fit into any of these categories?  First one obviously doesn’t apply.  Neither do the other two because Minnesota isn’t awful and ISU isn’t anything special.  W, 42-14, 2-0

Colorado State

• BC – Minnesota survived the Rams in OT last year on the road, this time they perform a little better in the bank.  3-0
• WC – Rams won 7 games a year ago and made a bowl.  They also finished strong with winning their final 4 regular season games.  The fightin’ Mike Bobos are well positioned to contend in the Mountain West and an upset isn’t impossible.  2-1
• P – Nick Stevens is coming off a pretty solid first season as the starter tossing 21 TDs to 12 picks, 2679 yards, 60.8%, and 7.72 yards per attempt.  His favorite target, Rashard Higgins is now in the Browns organization, but the top three running backs  (all with 590+ yards) are back.  Also returning is Wyatt Bryan who had a fantastic freshman season as a kicker.  I could see him progressing over his career and being a Groza finalist before he leaves Fort Collins.  All this talent certainly makes an upset possible, in fact I’d put a good 40% chance on it.  The Rams are good but Minnesota is just a pinch better and at home.  Gophers win, but it will be a battle.  W, 28-24, 3-0

At Penn State

• BC – Penn State’s OL was about as useful as a screen door on a submarine last year.  If that unit doesn’t improve, PSU is beatable for any opponent.  4-0
• WC – PSU’s recruiting classes have been solid the last few years so they win the talent edge.  Plus I understand Beaver Stadium can get a little loud.  2-2
• P – I’m not convinced Minnesota’s offense will be improved enough, especially against a defense like Penn State’s that was top 30 nationally a season ago.  Home field advantage also kicks in to make me more confident in this pick.  L, 28-17, 3-1 (0-1)

Iowa

• BC – Gophers had a furious rally in Iowa City to lose by 5.  A few more plays (or a 65 minute game instead of 60) they could have won it.  5-0
• WC – Iowa returns some key pieces from a club that went 12-0 in the regular season.  Despite last year’s tight game, what if Iowa is simply better?  2-3
• P – TCF Bank has been a house of horrors for Iowa but most of those games have been very late in the year when the weather really kicks in.  Oddly this one is October 8th, insanely early for what has historically been a late-season game and before Nebraska joined, was the finale for both teams.  I like Iowa’s advantage between signal callers and the 15th ranked defense returns quite a bit of talent.  Iowa survives another battle between these rivals.  L, 31-28, 3-2 (0-2)

At Maryland

• BC – An improved Leidner leads the Gophers to 15th in the nation and are undefeated at the halfway point.  6-0
• WC – Terps use a beefed up defense to slow a Minnesota team that continues to struggle to score.  2-4
• P – This game feels like a toss-up and Maryland is the home team.  We know what that means.  L, 24-21, 3-3 (0-3)

Rutgers

• BC – A soft way to start the second half of the season has Ski-U-Mah inching closer to Indianapolis.  7-0
• WC – The offense sputters and the defense gets worse translating to a huge road victory for the new staff in New Jersey.  2-5
• P – Shannon Brooks has a big day to stop the slide as Minnesota enjoys some home cooking against the worst team in the East.  W, 28-24, 4-3 (1-3)

At Illinois

• BC – Gophers won by 9 a year ago and thanks to a more reliable veteran leader in Leidner, the vastly improved Golden Gophers steamroll Illinois.  8-0
• WC – Illinois was actually kind of competent last year despite having Bill Cubit as coach.  With Lovie, UI could really be a a factor.  2-6
• P – I like this Illinois team.  I think Lunt is a really underrated quarterback and the defense was 18 spots ahead of Minnesota’s!  Between Lovie’s mind some solid players incoming and returning, the Illini defense could be fierce.  They use that to defend home field in this toss-up game.  L, 21-17, 4-4 (1-4)

Purdue

• BC – Top Ten!  9-0
• WC – Just like Rutgers, Purdue steals a game in Minneapolis thanks to some sloppy turnovers and a defense that isn’t consistent enough.  2-7
• P – Gophers have the better quarterback and are the home team.  Most of the time that translates to a victory.  W, 28-21, 5-4 (2-4)

At Nebraska

• BC – This was possibly Minnesota’s worst game a year ago but since it was Jerry Kill’s last, who knows what was going on behind the scenes.  This year with a clear head, a much improved offense and Lynn putting up Butkus Award worthy numbers, Minnesota pushes the flawless start to double digits.  10-0
• WC – The learning curve for first time head coaches can sometimes be a long one.  For Minnesota it gets a little longer in a blowout loss in Lincoln.  2-8
• P – These teams feel very similar on paper – defenses that we aren’t 100% sure are going to show up every week and coaches we aren’t 100% sure are long-term solutions.  Very toss-uppy as a result.  I’m picking the Huskers because they are of course the home team but also Tommy Armstrong Jr. is probably the best player on the field.  L, 31-28, 5-5 (2-5)

Northwestern

• BC – Indy is locked up thanks to Iowa, NU, and Wisconsin all having 2+ league losses and Minnesota clinches at home on senior day.  They also enter the top 10 after enduring weeks of doubt.  11-0
• WC – Wildcats won 10 games a year ago thanks to a lot of luck and grit and an easy schedule.  This year their slate is much tougher meaning to make a bowl they have to knock off the Illinois, Purdues, and Minnesotas of the world.  2-9
• P – Without spoiling my Northwestern preview, I expect NU to slide…a lot.  I don’t think they were ever as good as those 10 wins would indicate and now their schedule is brutal.  Sort of feels like the loser of this game won’t be bowling.  Unfortunately for the Cats, you know my policy on toss-up games and home field advantage.  Leidner and the other seniors dig deep in their final game at the bank.  W, 17-14, 6-5 (3-5)

At Wisconsin

• BC – In a year of reversals for Minnesota, they finally get a massive monkey off their back, take down the rival, get the axe and are just one win away from the playoffs.  12-0
• WC – While the 10 point margin looks okay, this game was actual a Badger beat down in the stats.  It was 28-14 at half, UW forced 5 turnovers, held UM to just 53 rushing yards, and dominated time of possession 40:35 to 19:25.  Make it 13 in a row.  2-10
• P – At some point Minnesota will win this game.  Even the Washington Generals stole a few from the Globetrotters.  The problem is Wisconsin returns some solid defensive talent, a good group of running backs and knows how to develop NFL caliber offensive linemen.  Minnesota may be getting closer in the skill positions but I still think Wisconsin has a solid edge in the trenches.  L, 31-10, 6-6 (3-6)

Final Notes

The assumption that avoiding MSU, Michigan, and Ohio State means the Gophers have a clear path but the schedule isn’t a cakewalk.  Roadies to Lincoln, Madison, and western PA are all difficult.  From there Illinois and Maryland should also be improved and are, you guessed it, road trips.  Lastly Iowa, Northwestern, and Colorado State are no gimmies.  So there are plenty of traps for the Gophers but the biggest trap of all is, they weren’t amazing last year.  This notion that an average defense will be top 20 overnight is possible but how likely is it?  The idea that Leidner will progress into the West’s best quarterback is possible but again, how likely is it?  Minnesota will be a tough out because that is what Kill and now Clayes has instilled but this program won’t get over the hump and be contenders this year.  They are no doubt developing but pieces aren’t there yet.