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Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2016 Maryland

Randy Edsall is not a bad coach – but was a horrible fit for Maryland.  If you were to rank a coach on two 10 point scale of recruiting and Xs and Os he is probably a 7.5 or 8 as a recruiter and a 4.5 or so when coaching the actual game.  This yields slow results.  At Connecticut, it was fine.  The program was essentially starting from scratch.  At Maryland, a school hemorrhaging money, switching conferences, and close to fertile recruiting grounds in Virginia slow and steady by building the talent was not going to sell many fans.  Despite 2013 and 2014 resulting in winning seasons and bowl berths the 2-4 (0-2) start was not enough for Edsall to keep his job even with some of the better recruiting classes UM has enjoyed.

The Edsall 2-4 start had wins over FCS Richmond and USF but were humiliated by Bowling Green (lost by 21, 48 points allowed), West Virginia (lost by 39, 45 points allowed), Michigan (lost by 28, shutout), and Ohio State (lost by 21, 49 points allowed).  See the trend?  That defense was awful.  It ended the year 103rd in the nation with 34.4 points allowed per.  After Edsall was canned, UM put up a valiant effort against Penn State, losing 31-30.  That was followed by losses to Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Indiana.  Sitting at 2-9 (0-7) the boys from the Chesapeake avoided a winless league slate by taking down Rutgers in the finale to end 3-9 (1-7).

The coaching search resulted in a lot of smoke (Under Armor money!) but very little fire.  Eventually D.J. Durkin was hired off the Michigan staff.  Durkin has coached some really strong defenses in his tenure but is also a highly regarded recruiter.  In 2012 he was Rivals’ recruiter of the year but a devil’s advocate would argue shouldn’t you be able to recruit well to Florida?  Either way Durkin is an upgrade on Edsall and with his defensive credentials that awful unit should improve soon.  Boosting this theory is former Virginia head coach Mike London coaching the DL.  The brain trust was looking great with former Syracuse head man Scott Shafer coordinating the entire defense but he resigned for personal reasons in an odd twist.  Still, Durkin and London makes quite a lot of knowledge for just one side of the ball.  Having outstanding corner Will Likely back also helps.  Expect Maryland’s defense to improve this season.  Going from the 100s to top 20 is silly to think about but even just entering the 50s-60s range is not only realistic but will improve the win-loss.

Offensively Maryland was 33rd in rushing but 74th in scoring.  A lot of that falls on the 109th ranked passing unit that threw…wait for it…29 interceptions to just 15 TDs.  Both Perry Hills and Caleb Rowe are back.  Hills had better numbers than Rowe and ended as the second leading rusher for the team.  Still, at a 50% completion rate and 8 TDs to 13 INTs it’s possible for Rowe to reclaim the job.  Rowe ended with 6 TDs and 15 INTs.  Daxx Garman, started his career at Okie State, went to Arizona, and then joined UM a season ago has had buzz since his prep days but failed to deliver.  At Maryland he is just 6/18, 115 yards, 1 td and of course 1 interception while playing sparingly last year.  He is an intriguing third option if Hills and Rowe stink.  Normally I would talk about other skill players here but it really doesn’t matter.  If the qb position continues to be a turnover machine it won’t matter what the running backs or wideouts do because it will be all for naught.

2016 Schedule

Howard

  • Best Case – Howard was 1-10 a year ago in the FCS which might explain why Rutgers and Maryland want to play them.  1-0
  • Worst Case – Almost impossible to see such a bad MEAC team taking on and beating one of these Big Ten squads.  1-0
  • Prediction – An ideal start would be to have Hills (or possibly Rowe, but I think Hills is better) dominate, the defense gets off to a good start and the issues plaguing UM a year ago are mostly put to bed in a soft open.  W, 42-14, 1-0

At Florida International

  • BC – Wait, FIU hosts two Big Ten schools?  Is the league expanding to south beach?  2-0
  • WC – Plagiarizing myself but this is what I wrote in the IU preview: Alex McGough was a really solid quarterback last year for FIU.  This team went 5-7 a season ago and knows they were a few plays away from breaking through to a bowl game.  Maybe they will put it together this year.  1-1
  • P – FIU’s running game was 122nd in the nation a year ago.  I don’t see how a staff this good on defense struggles with a one-dimensional team like FIU.  W, 31-14, 2-0

At Central Florida

  • BC – All these games in Florida, it’s almost like that state produces a lot of recruits.  3-0
  • WC – UCF went 0-12 a year ago.  You don’t magically improve overnight, Maryland’s rebuild is ahead of Central Florida’s without question.  2-1
  • P – To put UCF’s record in context of how jarring it was to see George O’Leary flame out with the Knights look at their 2012-2014 run.  After a losing season in 2011 (5-7), UCF went 10-4 with a bowl win, 12-1 and won the Fiesta Bowl, and 9-4.  That is 31-9 with 2 league titles and a massive bowl victory.  The drop off was staggering.  UCF is a place you can win, but it will take some time.  W, 35-17, 3-0

Purdue

  • BC – Purdue remains as awful as ever and Maryland coasts to an undefeated opening month.  4-0
  • WC – We all assume UM’s defense will improve and we all assume they can’t possibly throw as many picks as last year but what if our assumptions prove faulty?  Uh-oh.  2-2
  • P – This is sort of a toss-up game without seeing a down of football here in late July but when a game feels like that, the smart thing is to take the home club.  W, 28-20, 4-0 (1-0)

At Penn State

  • BC – This was a one point game a year ago!  5-0
  • WC – Happy Valley is one of the toughest environments no matter how shaky a season PSU has.  2-3
  • P – What did I just say about the Purdue game?  PSU by a nose.  L, 24-17, 4-1 (1-1)

Minnesota

  • BC – Did you know Minnesota’s offense stunk last year?  Did you also know their high 50s defense wasn’t enough to prevent a back slide under Kill and Clayes?  6-0
  • WC – There’s a headline I saw that argued Minnesota could be this year’s Iowa.  If they are, they will steal this road game.  2-4
  • P – Outside a running back I really like, I’m not sure the Gopher’s are skilled enough to produce reliable offensive numbers which makes this a toss-up and since Maryland is hosting a toss-up game…W, 24-21, 5-1 (2-1)

Michigan State

  • BC – I think the Spartans have gotten to the point where their program is reloading instead of rebuilding.  6-1
  • WC – Please for the love of god be patient with Durkin, Van Pelt.  2-5
  • P – Graduating Conner Cook is difficult but Mr. Scowls, aka, coach Dantonio runs a machine now in East Lansing.  L, 21-10, 5-2 (2-2)

At Indiana

  • BC – Tough, tough road game.  If Indiana’s qb position becomes clear, the Hoosiers could have the best offense in the league.  The rest of their skill positions are that good.  6-2
  • WC – Baby steps, baby steps.  2-6
  • P – Even with a vastly improved defense, I think the Hoosiers put up enough points to win this.  The WR corps and rushing attack are so impressive on paper.  L, 35-24, 5-3 (2-3)

At Michigan

  • BC – Struggling to find a rationale to pick Maryland in an upset.  I realize I picked Illinois in their best case preview, but Illinois has a proven qb who doesn’t throw a billion picks and a defense I trust.  Maryland doesn’t have either luxury.  6-3
  • WC – Well since they were shutout a year ago, I’m not sure how things could get worse in this match-up.  2-7
  • P – Even with the question mark that is currently Michigan’s qb situation, they are much better everywhere else on the field AND the game is in Ann Arbor.  L, 28-14, 5-4 (2-4)

Ohio State

  • BC – Mr. Moral, please meet Ms. Victory.  6-4
  • WC – Buckeyes are a freaking machine right now with Urban.  2-8
  • P – Picking Maryland to pull this upset is like picking Missouri to beat Alabama.  Yes, Mizzou has potential but until the Terps actually string some success together it is just theoretical.  L, 42-17, 5-5 (2-5)

At Nebraska

  • BC – After a horrible rough stretch, UM gets a Nebraska team that went just 5-7 a season ago and had just as many defensive issues as the Terps.  Big road win.  7-4
  • WC – Nebraska is a trendy pick to improve after their 2-1 finish and winning a bowl game to go a ridiculous 6-7.  2-9
  • P – Well I have to be consistent.  As much as I see this one as yet another toss-up, playing in Lincoln is never easy.  Also Nebraska has a more proven commodity under center with Tommy Armstrong Jr.  L, 28-24, 5-6 (2-6)

Rutgers

  • BC – Rutgers is the worst team in the East and battling Purdue for worst in the entire league.  A lot of the stench comes from poor recruiting, something Maryland is ahead of the game with since Edsall really didn’t struggle on that front.  8-4
  • WC – Ash does wonders with the RU defense in a way Durkin fails to do with Maryland’s.  2-10
  • P – Maryland nabs a bowl berth thanks to their defense shutting down Rutgers in the finale.  Great debut season.  W, 24-21, 6-6 (3-6)

Final Notes

An important thing to remember is that recruiting isn’t just compiling talent but having those pieces fit together.  That was one of Maryland’s many issues last year.  Their talent was always greater than the sum of the parts which is of course opposite of what coaches strive for.  Even if Durkin and gang get this team playing better, there still are undoubtedly chemistry issues and no clue what the quarterback play will be like.  Those personnel issues, combined with road trips to State College, Ann Arbor, and Lincoln as well as MSU and OSU means the losses will mount.  Expect Maryland to be better, but don’t expect them to contend for a division title yet.

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