Purdue was a mess last year, finishing just 1-7 in the league and 2-10 overall. The mark pushed Darrell Hazell to just 6-30 (2-22) at the school but instead of the axe falling on him, he released both coordinators in a staff shake-up. Considering PU finished 95th in scoring offense and 112th in scoring defense, firing the assistants isn’t a horrible place to start.
The season opened with a hard-fought loss to Marshall, a win over Indiana State, and close losses to Bowling Green (lost by 7) and Michigan State (lost by 3). Still the club was 1-6 (0-3) when they delivered their stunning 55-45 win over Nebraska. The upturn was short-lived as PU lost out to end another long season.
The offense packed very little punch. The rushing game was 111th nationally and the passing game was a bad mix of dink and dunk combined with too many interceptions. With the grad transfer of Austin Appleby, David Blough will be the unquestioned starter from the get-go. His freshman campaign wasn’t the greatest with 10 TDs to 8 INTs, a sub 60 completion percentage, just 5.37 yards per attempt and a low 56.6 adjusted qbr. In his defense, zero running game and 19 sacks show that while he wasn’t setting the world on fire, no one on this team was. Markell Jones was okay as a freshman running back and DeAngelo Yancey would probably start for any other Big Ten team. Assuming Blough progresses and has time to find Yancey the Boilermaker offense will improve some. Of course based on their numbers last year, it would be hard to get any worse.
The defense is a bit more of a puzzle. Jake Replogle is one of the better defensive linemen in the league and Ja’Whaun Bentley is a solid linebacker but these individual stars couldn’t elevate the defense into a reliable unit. They held Northwestern to 21 and the pair of Wisconsin and MSU to 24. But these efforts were not consistent enough and since defense often times is fueled by results, continually watching the offense be the keystone cops probably caused some complacency to slip in.
2016 Schedule
Eastern Kentucky
- Best Case – The Colonels! One of the best logos in sports, seriously, look it up. Sadly, EKU went just 6-5 in the FCS a season ago. 1-0
- Worst Case – This team took Kentucky to overtime…0-1
- Prediction – Yes, EKU nearly stunned the Wildcats and yes this is Purdue we are talking about but even Hazell hasn’t lost to an FCS team. W, 31-10, 1-0
Cincinnati
- BC – Bearcats went 7-6 last year with no real bad losses. The USF game was ugly but the Bulls made a bowl. With such an up-and-down team, it is possible for Purdue to pick them off at home. 2-0
- WC – UC has a really good (presumably) quarterback in Gunner Kiel. His career has had injuries, a high-profile huh? moment just before the bowl, and a transfer but if he is right – he is the best player on the field in this game. 0-2
- P – The Kiel front has been quiet since he rejoined the team in January. Plus, Tommy Tuberville is a much better coach than Hazell. L, 42-21, 1-1
Nevada
- BC – Wolfpack were just 6-6 last year before winning a bowl but one of their wins was over an FCS team. Much like UC they are up-and-down but unlike UC they don’t have as strong a qb or coach. 3-0
- WC – Nevada had a pair of 1000 backs last year as a really strong running team. One is gone to the NFL but leading rusher James Butler is back and Tyler Stewart is an experienced starting quarterback. 0-3
- P – Nevada isn’t a bad team and Purdue isn’t a good one but in a battle of middle of the road Mountain West team versus this Purdue team I’m leaning towards the Train. This is similar to the Marshall opener which, although losing, Purdue actually had a good game until collapsing late. I think they can pull it off. W, 31-28, 2-1
At Maryland
- BC – Hot damn, Boilermakers undefeated through the opening month! 4-0
- WC – And business as usual, Boilermakers winless through the opening month! 0-4
- P – You know my rule, when a game is a toss-up go with the home team. I follow it most of the time and this is one of them. Randy Edsall may have struggled with the Xs and Os but he was an above average recruiter and the Terps are more talented still than this Purdue club. L, 28-20, 2-2 (0-1)
At Illinois
- BC – The streak ends due to Illinois’s solid defense and edge at the skill positions, chiefly QB. 4-1
- WC – Can they leave Hazell in Champaign? 0-5
- P – UI’s biggest cause for concern is their OL but this unit held up well against Purdue last year in a blowout win. Illini win again. L, 35-17, 2-3 (0-2)
Iowa
- BC – Another ‘moral victory’ that plays out similar to the Illinois game. 4-2
- WC – All 500 fans in attendance gives quite the “Fire Darrell” chant. 0-6
- P – Iowa cruised to a 20 point victory last year in this one and with the talent they have coming back, there is no reason to expect Iowa to duff this game. L, 42-24, 2-4 (0-3)
At Nebraska
- BC – Any given Saturday, right? I don’t see Purdue pulling off a stunner two years in a row over the Huskers. 4-3
- WC – Things are getting ugly on the PU message boards! 0-7
- P – Better qb – Neb. Home field – Neb. Better coach – okay, well, maybe there’s a chance but NU can ride the other two to victory. L, 45-21, 2-5 (0-4)
Penn State
- BC – I’ve said it in some other posts, I am one of the biggest Franklin critics around but throughout his career in State College, he has avoided the unforgivable loss. It is among several factors allowing him to keep his job. PSU will avoid this unforgivable loss. 4-4
- WC – Is a meme of Nero watching Rome burn dank enough to use with Hazell? 0-8
- P – PSU’s defense was a rugged unit a year ago and I expect that side to push the Nittany Lions to most of their victories again this season. L, 21-3, 2-6 (0-5)
At Minnesota
- BC – UM’s offense struggles like last year, meanwhile Purdue improves marginally in all aspects of the game to steal a marquee road victory as they make a late season push for a bowl. 5-4
- WC – Prince passed away this season and he always struck me as one of the best showmen since Freddie Mercury of Queen. One of Queen’s hits? Another One Bites the Dust. 0-9
- P – Re-read my comment about Nebraska and it applies here. L, 28-21, 2-7 (0-6)
Northwestern
- BC – Bowl bound! 6-4
- WC – Another band I love is the Who. One of their hits? Won’t Get Fooled Again which includes the phrase “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.” 0-10
- P – I’m down on Northwestern for several reasons but their defense is still good enough to rough up Purdue. L, 21-10, 2-8 (0-7)
Wisconsin
- BC – Badgers have a nightmare schedule and needs to take advantage of their games against the weaker teams. Even a bowl-bound Purdue team qualifies as a weaker opponent. 6-5
- WC – Speaking of music, remember the hit song Closing Time by Semisonic? Hazell’s tenure at Purdue is reaching its closing time. 0-11
- P – Wisconsin’s defense has a pretty high ceiling of potential and if they can figure out their quarterback situation, the offense should be alright. Their schedule is a beast with LSU in the non-con and several difficult cross-over games but they’ll feast on lower end clubs. L, 35-14, 2-9 (0-8)
At Indiana
- BC – Already with a bowl in hand, the Boilermakers improve their bowl standing by knocking-off arch rival Indiana and claim the Old Oaken Bucket for the first time in Hazell’s tenure. 7-5
- WC – “Purdue University has announced a press conference regarding the football program for Monday morning at 10 am.” 0-12
- P – Indiana has won 3 in a row over their rivals and with one of the league’s best receiving groups, a talented running back, and a coach who always finds good quarterbacks, their offense should hum again. L, 45-21, 2-10 (0-9)
Final Notes
Generally speaking the last act of a desperate coach is to can his coordinators. It seldom works. First of all, any good coordinator already has a steady job. Any coordinator who is out of work or looking to jump to a new program is generally trying to find something more steady. As a coordinator, when you take a job at a program like Purdue, you are hoping for a hail Mary because odds are everyone is getting fired at the end of the season which should happen with this club. The fact is Purdue is the least talented team in the west by a wide mark and probably worse off than Rutgers overall. The coordinators will have just one camp to implement their system and pray to the football gods that the defense can somehow improve. Without that unit coming together, I don’t see Purdue scoring reliably enough to get to a bowl. Without a bowl, Hazell will not keep his job.
Big Ten and Counting 