Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2016 Illinois

It has been a strange year for Fighting Illini fans as one of the strangest turnover of coaches in league history ended with a fantastic hiring.  Let’s rewind.  Tim Beckman went to a bowl in 2014 which allowed him to keep his job, despite not receiving a contract extension, there was maybe a chance that the embattled Beckman had turned the corner, especially if 2015 turned out to be a solid year.  Then, an investigation into mistreatment of player injuries resulted in Illinois firing Beckman late in summer.  Offensive coordinator, Bill Cubit, who was not a part of the mistreatment due to being new to the staff was made interim coach.

Illinois’s issues were not just with Beckman but the athletic director position and chancellorship were also up in the air.  Because of this, Cubit was given an extension because it is hard to clean house as an interim AD.  Once this seat was filled, the axe fell on Cubit and he was fired after every other job was filled.  My reaction at the time was as painful as it could set up 2016, the worst case would be if Cubit gets them to a bowl and shows promise because as nice as Cubit is, his resume was not strong enough to have ever gotten an interview for the head job in the first place.  The difficult drawn out decline that West Virginia experienced by having a good guy, Bill Stewart, hang around did more harm than good.  Machiavellian?  Sure, but let’s be frank – college football is all about dollars.  Money for the university, money for other athletic programs, money for the city, and money for the state.

So here we go, Illinois has removed two coaches in less than a year who the hell will they find?  How about former NFL defensive guru Lovie Smith.  That’s right, the beloved Bears coach is back to the area and fans of the Orange crush are psyched.  But should they be?

Well, 2015 wasn’t a disaster like most teams have when they fire a coach.  Cubit guided this team to a surprising 5-7 (2-6) mark.  They started 4-1 thanks to wins over awful Kent State, FCS Western Illinois, surviving pesky WKU and stunning Nebraska.  The 1-6 finish was difficult to stomach because it included a loss to rival Northwestern and closer-than-expected games with Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.  Flipping any of them would have pushed this club to a bowl.  Ironically, making a bowl might have meant no Lovie Smith.

On the offensive side of things, Wes Lunt was a highly touted qb when Oklahoma State nabbed him a few years ago.  Much like the last few years of Illinois football, Lunt’s path has been a roundabout one but one thing is clear – he is an above average starter.  One thing that impresses me about him is ball control.  34 TDs to just 16 INTs for his career, with 7 of those picks back in 2012.  He has a 28 to 9 split since that rocky debut season.  Ke’Shawn Vaughn was a delight last year as a freshman running the ball and although Geronimo Allison is now with the Packers, Malik Turner is a solid wide receiver to replace Allison’s numbers as Lunt’s number-one target.

Sounds like a good group and Cubit was the OC so Illinois was awesome on offense, right?  Nope.  Another plot twist!  UI was 98th in scoring last year with just 24.7 ppg.  Boosting that average were the Kent and WIU games.  In fact, UI never even got to 24 points in a league game.  The reason was the OL was a mess.  Lunt was sacked 18 times and Vaughn couldn’t average 5.0 yards per carry.  Austin Schmidt is a solid tackle but the rest of the line needs to plug their holes for Illinois to improve on last year’s struggles with this unit.

Defensively Illinois was – you guessed it, plot twist time – pretty good!  Tied at 41st in the nation at just 23.3 per, their saltiest effort coming against Nebraska in the 14-13 upset win.  Between Lovie Smith knowing a thing or two about defense, new DC Hardy Nickerson, and Nickerson’s son Hardy Jr. grad transferring to play for his dad this already good unit, could emerge as one of the best in the league.  If it does, Illinois could be your sleeper in the west.

2016 Schedule

Murray State

• Best Case – The FCS club went just 3-8 (2-6) a season ago and was creamed by a pair of MAC clubs.  1-0
• Worst Case – The Racers of the Ohio Valley are a pretty good basketball school but they padded their football win total by taking on Kentucky Wesleyan last year.  1-0
• Prediction – Lovie wants to set the tone early, the defense listens, and Lunt shines.  W, 42-0, 1-0

North Carolina

• BC – UNC smoked Illinois a season ago and based on having Elijah Hood back in the backfield and Larry Fedora’s proven offense it seems like a long shot for Illinois to win but do-it-all QB Marquise Williams is in the pros now so there’s always a shot this early in the season when the favorite doesn’t have their big gun back.  2-0
• WC – 48-14 isn’t all on the QB the heels had last year.  1-1
• P – Losing Williams can’t be discounted and UNC has the tougher opener with Georgia so if the Tar Heels win that one, a let down is possible and if UGA beats them up, they could be ripe for the picking but I think the talent on North Carolina is just better, especially with Hood.  That kid is a beast.  L, 28-17, 1-1

Western Michigan

• BC – Row that boat!  The Broncos are vastly improved but they lost five games last year.  3-0
• WC – Western did win a bowl game and Zach Terrell is coming off a 29 TD, 9 INT season (31 sacks though, pass much?) and Jamauri Bogan was a 1000 yard back on a pass-heavy team.  An upset is possible.  1-2
• P – It wouldn’t surprise me to see WMU in the MAC title game, they really are that good but we’ve seen plenty of MAC champs still lose to middle of the road Big Ten teams.  I give WMU a solid 30% chance at pulling off the upset but that means the smart pick is with Illinois.  W, 24-14, 2-1

At Nebraska

• BC – Illinois won last year by only scoring 14 points.  If the offense improves at all and that defense takes the leap we all expect, Illinois can win this game.  4-0
• WC – Huskers have received plenty of pub about competing with Iowa and Wisconsin to win the west.  The reasoning is Tommy Armstrong Jr. is a solid quarterback and the way NU came on at the end winning 2 of 3 and dominating UCLA in a bowl shows the potential of this club.  1-3
• P – I’m not as high on Nebraska as some are but my gut feeling is when games are toss-ups, go with the home team.  L, 28-21, 2-2 (0-1)

Purdue

• BC – To put PU’s troubles last year in perspective, look no farther than their game against Illinois.  UI ended 1-6 and the one was Purdue.  The score was 48-14.  5-0
• WC – Any given Saturday something strange can happen, for example Purdue beat Nebraska last year…but these posts are about sound judgement.  I just don’t see Illinois losing this game at home no matter how bad I can think in a ‘worst case’ projection.  2-3
• P – When Lunt and Vaughn are given time to throw or see a hole they are solid players but that requires the line winning up front.  Against a team like Purdue, the line will win up front and the skill players will be given the time they need.  W, 35-17, 3-2 (1-1)

At Rutgers

• BC – Rutgers looks like the worst team in the east and could wind up being the worst in the entire league.  Ranked!  6-0
• WC – Road games can be tricky for up and down teams and while Rutgers and Purdue are well behind the pack, RU has just enough on offense to pull an upset at home.  2-4
• P – Remember when I said in toss-ups pick the home team?  Well I am violating that because this doesn’t feel like a true toss-up.  I think the odds are 55-45 or 60-40 in favor of Illinois.  Won’t be a cakewalk but the Illini pick up a tricky road victory.  W, 24-21, 4-2 (2-1)

At Michigan

• BC – Doubting Illinois’s defense would be silly.  They held OSU to 28, UW and NU (purple) to 24, and NU (red) to 14.  Michigan hasn’t settled on a quarterback yet.  Maybe, just maybe, some Lovie magic and a defensive gem steal a massive road game and put Illinois in the driver’s seat for Indy.  7-0
• WC – Unfortunately, Illinois lost all but that Nebraska game in the examples above of this defense performing well in league.  2-5
• P – Outside the question at qb, Michigan is a strong contender for Indy, a trendy pick in Vegas for the title, and at home.  Better talent + home field advantage = win.  L, 31-13, 4-3 (2-2)

Minnesota

• BC – Riding the league’s best defense, Illinois climbs to 10th in the polls.  Lovie and Lunt is being pitched as a sitcom by the on-campus student media.  8-0
• WC – If you live by a shaky OL you can also die by it.  There’s a chance that this team repeats as last year’s good D, inconsistent O manifestation and just plods along.  2-6
• P – I think Lunt is better than UM’s Mitch Leidner.  I also think that the Illinois defense will end up better than the Gopher’s (not much of a bet, UI was 41st, UM’s was 59th last season).  Feel like another toss-up, but I’ll give the nod to the home team.  W, 21-17, 5-3 (3-2)

Michigan State

• BC – Look, Illinois isn’t going to sweep the two Michigan schools no matter how dreamy their best case projection could become.  8-1
• WC – Lovie is currently recruiting offensive lineman like mad.  2-7
• P – Just like their in-state rival, MSU also has questions at QB but still has better talent across the field than Illinois.  L, 28-17, 5-4 (3-3)

At Wisconsin

• BC – UW wasn’t immune to baffling losses against good defenses last year.  Just look at the Iowa and Northwestern games for proof.  9-1
• WC – The already questionable OL becomes demoralized after the Big Ten grind and no longer playing for a bowl.  Lunt starts taking more and more hits.  2-8
• P – Wisconsin isn’t going to have a very good record because their schedule is an absolute nightmare, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t a well coached outfit or a lacking talent.  Wisconsin will hold their own against teams like Illinois, especially at home.  L, 28-10, 5-5 (3-4)

Iowa

• BC – Illinois lost this one 29-20 a year ago.  A pinch better O and a pinch better D…they could win it.  Illinois fans are booking hotels in Indy.  10-1
• WC – Iowa is in another undefeated run much to the annoyance of Cowherd and just like last year, the Hawks enjoy a ho-hum win.  2-9
• P – Iowa has a slight edge at quarterback and returns a lot on defense.  I like this Iowa team to win but I don’t love them, Hawks escape with a little luck.  L, 30-27 on a last second field goal, 5-6 (3-5)

At Northwestern

• BC – NU is awful and so Illinois enjoys a victory lap for Indy in a laugher over their in-state rival.  Lovie wraps up league COY honors, on the short list for COY nationally, and Illinois heads to the title game ranked 7th in the nation.  11-1
• WC – Never fun being a broken record but the fact is if the OL improves, this team is dangerous, if they stay the same this club could be tossed around.  2-10
• P – I had Northwestern winning 3 or 4 games a year ago.  They stunned me by winning 10 but I don’t love their quarterback and there were cracks seen last year in lopsided losses to Michigan, Iowa, and Tennessee in the bowl.  They didn’t look like a 10 win team in some of their wins, too.  I expect them to regress and one of the beneficiaries of a slide will be Illinois.  W, 24-14, 6-6 (4-5)

Final Note

11 wins as a best case, 2 as a worst case, and I pick 6-6?  That looks a lot like a cop-out push.  Maybe, but I think Illinois has closer to 8 or 9 win talent with a difficult schedule.  Nine of their opponents were in bowls last year.  They get both B1G title team reps and one of the two teams to play in the ACC title game.  Lastly, roadies to Lincoln and Madison are all tall orders for any team.  When one has as many questions down in the trenches like Illinois, the smart thing is to pick against them in all those games.  As a result, I think calling for six wins is actually pretty generous.  I have them beating Minnesota and Northwestern – selections I assume are counter to what most would predict.  So while 6-6 on the surface looks like I played it safe, I’m willing to bet I’m in the minority of people who are ending the Illini’s season with a bowl.