I AM BACK! The football season is rapidly approaching so it is time for my BC / WC / P columns and I thought I would kick it off with a bowl team from last year that was easily the most exciting 6-7 football team you will ever see. The 2015-16 Indiana football team got things started out the right way with a 4-0 non-conference slate. They nearly (and probably should have) upset Ohio State but the tough loss showed that these Hoosiers had some starch in them that we normally don’t associate with this football program. Unfortunately a dud against Penn State followed by a disappointing loss to hapless Rutgers dropped Indiana to 4-3. They collapsed against MSU and slim losses to Iowa and Michigan, the UM game going to overtime, brought Indiana all the way to 4-6 (0-6). Still, they rallied to win the last two games (Maryland and Purdue) to get to a bowl. Once there, controversy helped push Duke to the win.
Making a bowl probably saved Kevin Wilson’s job but I actually am one of the few people who really defend him. The offense he installed is great. Recruiting is clearly up and the eye-test shows Indiana is much more competitive under Wilson than they have been in a while. The problem has been his defense routinely struggles and last year was no different. They were 116th in points against nationally and dreadful in league. As a result IU has another new defensive coordinator, this time going to a 4-2-5 defense. That should help prevent the big play, but since pass rush was a major issue last year with just 13 sacks all season, the schematic change won’t be a cure-all. Fortunately 8 starters return and Jonathan Crawford (safety) had a really nice season as a freshman so while this unit probably won’t turn into the ’85 bears, do expect them to make some strides.
Offensively, quarterback Nate Sudfeld is now getting checks from the Redskins and running back Jordan Howard is with the Bears but this receiving corps is stacked and led by Simmie Cobbs Jr, a 1000 yard man a year ago. Devine Redding rushed for over a thousand yards as the 2 in the one-two punch of running backs. He should help make up for Howard’s departure if someone can step up to maintain the rotation.
As for who will replace Sudfeld, my pick for first team all Big Ten a year ago, hmm. We’d all like to know. Zander Diamont has had a fair amount of action when Sudfeld missed some time last year and even more time the previous season when Sudfeld had a lengthy injury. He also had a 79 yard touchdown run a year ago, showing he has some speed to keep defenses off-balance. On the other hand, transfer Richard Lagow is assumed to have the best arm. Also on the depth chart is Danny Cameron, who has had some reps this spring due to an injury to Diamont. Regardless of who Wilson goes with, there should be plenty of weapons with this team and the protection should be good as IU has done nothing but develop linemen at an impressive rate under this current staff.
2016 Schedule
At Florida International
- Best Case – Hoosiers won this game by 14 a year ago. Knowing how critical their non-con slate is, Hoosiers pound them. 1-0
- Worst Case – Alex McGough was a really solid quarterback last year for FIU. This team went 5-7 a season ago and knows they were a few plays away from breaking through to a bowl game. Maybe they will put it together this year. 0-1
- Prediction – FIU struggled mightily to run the ball last year, finishing 122nd in the nation. With emphasis placed on stopping the pass with the revamped 4-2-5 and four starters back for the secondary (8 overall defensively) I like Indiana’s chances to slow McGough down. Predictably, IU also has a size and skill advantage on FIU in the trenches. It might be a rocky start with a new starting QB but Indiana settles down and pulls away some in the second half. W, 34-17, 1-0
Ball State
- BC – The Cardinals were a punching bag for a lot of teams last year, even in the MAC going just 3-9 (2-6). 2-0
- WC – If Indiana does indeed gag in the opener at FIU, you better bet your butt they find a way to beat this middling in-state foe. 1-1
- P – Ball State struggled to run, pass, score, and defend last year. Then Pete Lembo left a head coaching gig for special teams coordinator (among other duties) at Maryland. That should tell you all you need to know about Ball State’s program about now. W, 42-14, 2-0
Wake Forest
- BC – Wake was one of the worst offensive teams in the nation a year ago. Indy scores at too high a rate for the Demon Deacons to hang. 3-0
- WC – Despite going 3-9 (1-7) a season ago, Wake only lost to Indiana by a touchdown. Without Sudfeld and Howard, Hoosiers take a step back. 1-2
- P – Wake’s three wins were FCS Elon, Army (by 3), and Boston College in a 3-0 thriller. This isn’t a strong team, Indiana is at home, and this is the type of game IU has to win. I think they get it done and put themselves in good shape for a possible bowl run for the second straight year. W, 28-24, 3-0
Michigan State
- BC – What was the MSU-Indiana score after three quarters last year? 26-28, MSU. The Spartans had a fourth quarter of the ages with 24 points to pull away from pesky Indiana. This time around, Indiana pulls the stunning upset over the Connor Cook-less Spartans. 4-0
- WC – Despite replacing Cook and other important pieces MSU has become a juggernaut program. They probably won’t make the CFB tournament again, but they feast on Indiana whose offense continues to struggle without Sudfeld. 1-3
- P – If Sudfeld was still suiting up for Indiana, I would have no hesitation picking the upset. Sadly he isn’t, so I’m going to take the safer pick. L, 31-17, 3-1 (0-1)
At Ohio State
- BC – Despite the upset and receiving 3 votes in the AP poll, Indiana comes back to Earth after the hot start. 4-1
- WC – Half a hundred dropped on Indiana…in the first half. 1-4
- P – This was another could’ve, should’ve, would’ve game for Indiana a year ago and with Sudfeld, you could talk yourself into the ‘any given Saturday’ argument but the on-paper talent suggests a difficult path to victory for Indiana. L, 42-13, 3-2 (0-2)
Nebraska
- BC – Huskers remain a mess with Aww-Shucks Mike Riley. Plus NU lost to Purdue a year ago…bounce back! 5-1
- WC – Huskers rocky debut a year ago looked solved in their impressive bowl victory. They use that momentum to win the west and stomp teams like this. 1-5
- P – While this is another tempting upset pick because, let’s be honest, with Mike Riley they are all tempting upset picks, Nebraska looks to battle Iowa and Wisconsin for the western crown. To do so they need to win manageable road games and this is one of them. Plus Tommy Armstrong Jr remains one of the better quarterbacks in the league and I’m not sold on IU solving all their defensive woes. L, 35-24, 3-3 (0-3)
At Northwestern
- BC – Fun fact, NU was the worst 10 win team a year ago. Hoosiers lock down a bowl real quick. 6-1
- WC – Northwestern won 10 games a year ago by not losing any dumb ones and having a fantastic defense (statistically). 1-6
- P – Northwestern’s 10 wins were as followed. Stanford (before they realized they had Christian McCaffery), EIU, Duke, Ball State, Minnesota, Nebraska (by 2), Penn State (by 2), Purdue (by 7), Wisconsin (by six and forced 5 turnovers somehow), Illinois. In games against Michigan, Iowa, and Tennessee they were outscored 123-16. So, no, this wasn’t that good of a team. Indiana with a huge road victory! W, 31-28, 4-3 (1-3)
Maryland
- BC – Maryland was every bit as bad as their 3-9 (1-7) record indicates and they just hired D.J. Durkin who has coached exactly one game in his life as a head man when he was an interim at Florida. Don’t look now but Indiana is ranked! 7-1
- WC – Maryland remains a putrid mess and Indiana regains some pride with a home victory. Why not? 2-6
- P – I like the Durkin hire in the same way I like the Wilson hire several years ago. Get someone who knows a boat load about one side of the ball and can help you get competitive. Maryland’s defense should be vastly improved but don’t expect to see much in the way of their record yet. Indiana still has enough firepower with Cobbs Jr and Redding to be dangerous. Indiana gets in great position for a bowl. W, 35-24, 5-3 (2-3)
At Rutgers
- BC – The Cream and Crimson crusade continues to gather steam as they move up to 20th in the polls. 8-1
- WC – Indiana gives their fans some hope of an insane bowl run by ripping off back-to-back victories over the worst teams in the league. 3-6
- P – As much as I like the Durkin hire, I like Chris Ash even more for Rutgers. Unfortunately for RU, Maryland at least had Randy Edsall sign some good classes. The RU rebuild is going to be a long one. Indiana locks down a bowl by taking advantage of the middle part of the season and Redding is getting some buzz about an invite to New York as he is on pace for nearly 2000 yards. W, 38-21, 6-3 (3-3)
Penn State
- BC – I am one of James Franklin’s harshest critics so….of course I’m taking Indiana! 9-1
- WC – The bowl push is short lived as Indiana falls to the Lions. 3-7
- P – As much as I rag on Franklin, I’ll give him this: he seldom looses the fireable games – which is why he might see another year in Happy Valley even after this one. Also, he is a pretty good recruiter so even without Hackenburg (who this team ruined since they can’t coach) PSU should have more talent on the table. L, 27-24, 6-4 (3-4)
At Michigan
- BC – A narrow loss ends the dream of winning the east but Indiana remains ranked and having a magical season. 9-2
- WC – Even the Kevin Wilson fan club, chaired by me, is losing out of reasons to defend him with another blowout loss. 3-8
- P – Anyone else stunned Harbaugh is still around? I figured he would be on the Colts sideline by now. UM has some great returning players and a whole slew of incoming talent. Indiana may turn some heads but they struggle in the Big House. L, 31-17, 6-5 (3-5)
Purdue
- BC – Indiana surpasses their two Big Ten title years (1945 and 1967) with 10 wins, setting a new school record. They also get invited to a New Year’s day bowl in Florida and with such a young team, Wilson’s crew is a trendy pick entering next year. 10-2
- WC – A loss to arch-rival PU ends the season ending all the good will Wilson created with the bowl last year making 2017-18 a hot one for Wilson. 3-9
- P – Wilson has won three in a row against Purdue and seems to get the importance of this rivalry. This year is even more special as the Hoosiers already have a bowl locked down and claiming the Old Oaken Bucket for a fourth year in a row just improves their bowl standing and guarantees a winning record, something they haven’t done since 2007. W, 45-21, 7-5 (4-5)
Final Notes
Sometimes I surprise myself when I do a win total and 7 wins for Indiana before a down of football certainly qualifies as a surprise. All of this hinges on Indiana finding out their quarterback situation this summer and early in the non-conference as well as the defense taking a marginal step forward. They were in the 100s last year, if they can get to just the 50-75 range it will turn a lot of those goofy IU losses into wins. Assuming they do sort out the QB situation and improve a pinch on D, watch out because one of the biggest boosts for Indiana this year is a highly manageable schedule. While not everyone loves the nine-game league schedule, Indiana has to enjoy getting an extra crossover date with Northwestern, a team that seems poised for a big drop off. The only way this could have been sweeter for Indiana is if they got to play Illinois instead of Nebraska. Either way, I think they take full advantage of a soft non-conference, Purdue, and a juicy middle stretch that features Maryland and Rutgers.
Big Ten and Counting 