The 2011-12 to 2013-14 run was spectacular. Michigan went a combined 83-27 (40-14) with two regular season league championships and a trip to the NCAA title game and to the Elite Eight. So why did the team fall off the cliff and go 16-16 (8-10) a year ago? Well roster attrition is a good place to start. With so much success a lot of kids bolted early. Injuries also came into play as Caris LaVert and Derrick Walton Jr missed significant playing time a year ago. Lastly, just some bad luck. Six losses were by one or two possessions and several of those came after the injuries mounted. So no, last year was not indicative of Michigan coming back to the pack. It was a awful luck season on a lot of fronts and expect big blue to be dancing again this year.
The silver lining from LaVert and Walton Jr getting banged up is neither left for the pros. In fact the player departures from Michigan are minuscule. 6’8″ Max Bielfeldt (5.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg) used his graduate transfer ability to head to Indiana. Austin Hatch, Jon Rubenstein, and Ryan Kapustka were all buried on the bench and have all departed the team.
The only player of note no longer on the team is a melancholy one to bring up. 5’11” sharp-shooter Spike Albrecht (7.5 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 3.9 apg) had developed more than just the goofy freshman who singlehandedly kept Michigan in the title game against Louisville. He was becoming quite the player but persistent back pain and injury led him to retire last month. He always seemed like a smart kid and a hard working player and those attributes mean one thing post playing – someone is going to get a great young assistant coach if Spike chooses to remain a part of the game.
So this is the scary part…the returning cast at Michigan. 6’7″ guard Caris LeVert (14.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.8 spg) is an all Big Ten talent when healthy. No ifs ands or buts about that statement. Already a gifted shooter, he is scoring more, shooting a better percentage AND averaging 1.5 assists more per game so far this year. Scary stuff, indeed.
The other injury victim last year, 6’1″ guard Derrick Walton Jr (10.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.2 spg) is kind of like a poor man’s LeVert, although shorter. That’s terrifying to know you are going against two Swiss army guards who can ball handle, shoot, pass, rebound and play pretty solid defense. Normally one guard is a defensive specialist or a scorer. With Michigan they have a true two-headed monster.
Oh wait, no, it is a three-headed monster. Another silver lining with the injuries last year was more playing time for 6’6″ guard Zak Irvin (14.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.0 spg). Irvin was thrust into the spotlight last year. If he can mesh well with the previous two, especially LeVert, then Michigan’s back-court could emerge as the best in the league.
Also returning is 6’6″ guard Aubrey Dawkins (7.0 ppg, 2.1 rpg) who had a pretty solid freshman year last year. If his name sounds familiar, it should. His dad is former Duke star and current Stanford coach Johnny Dawkins. 6’9″ forward Ricky Doyle (6.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg) was also thrust into more action as the roster got thinned out during his freshman season last year. 6’4″ guard Muhammed-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (4.5 ppg, 1.7 rpg) was, you guessed it, a freshman last year who probably saw more time than expected.
Deeper on the bench is 6’8″ guard (that’s how he’s listed folks) Kameron Chatman (3.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg), 6’9″ forward Mark Donnal (3.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg), 6’2″ guard Andrew Dakich, and 6’5″ forward (that’s how he’s listed…I know, I know) Sean Lonergan.
That’s a pretty full sounding roster right there but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any new faces. 6’8″ forward D.J. Wilson is a 3-star California kid who had offers from multiple Pac 12 schools and rising Mountain West program Boise State. 6’10” German Moritz Wagner is a big body for a team severely lacking size and preferred walk on Brent Hibbitts is also on the club.
The strangest new face is 6’8″ guard Duncan Robinson. Robinson was playing D-three hoops this time last year but his coach convinced him to aim higher. He has been an instant impact player for Michigan, averaging 11.9 ppg and having a blistering three point percentage right now. He is hitting 56.5% from beyond the arc while attempting 6.1 a game! If he keeps this up, John Beilein may have pulled off the steal of the century.
Best Case
With a lot of players listed as guards and not a lot of size Michigan remains a bit of a work in progress and takes some lumps early but once all the kinks are worked out, LaVert leads this team to 22+ wins and the NCAAs. Second weekend in play, folks.
Worst Case
Obscured in UM’s 10-3 start are blow out losses to Xavier, UConn, and SMU. Those are Big Ten caliber teams. If they can’t compete with them there must be something wrong, right? Well this team is small. The best returning player is 6’6″ LeVert. The tallest player who is actually good is 6’8″ Robinson but he is a three point shooter. How will this team fare against Purdue or Iowa who has size? How will this team do against a club like Maryland that can shutdown their guards? To quote Star Wars (mostly), “it is possible, however unlikely, they have found a weakness and will exploit it.” That was said a few minutes before the Death Star exploded. It is possible that Michigan’s lack of size will be a season long bugaboo and result in a 9 or 10 win Big Ten season and put them squarely on the bubble.
Prediction
Can you say easy schedule? Penn State twice, Minnesota twice, Indiana and Northwestern at home, road trips to Illinois (already won), Nebraska, and Wisconsin. For the sake of argument let’s say they totally duff the Iowa series, Maryland series, Purdue series, and the home game to MSU. That is 7 losses. It is totally feasible to run the table in the other eleven. Make no mistake about it, this team is going to have well over 20 wins and make the NCAAs.
Now, can they make a run at the league title? I’m not sure. Their lack of size is a concern. We saw injuries derail this team a year ago so I’m not totally sold on their depth and what happens if Robinson cools off? I would be surprised if this team can crack the MSU and Maryland level or the surging Hawks. Expect them to battle with Purdue for about 4th or so in the league.
Big Ten and Counting 