Remember when Matt Painter could do no wrong with the Baby Boilers? Well the 2008-09 tournament champs and 2009-10 regular season chip are, well, a thing of the past. Since then the returns have diminished with win totals of 26, 22, 16, and 15 before last year. His seat had clearly become warm. A three game skid to end non-con play dropped the Boilers to 8-5 and a 3-3 league start didn’t end the whispers. Purdue found themselves though, finishing 9-3 in league play for a solid 12-6 Big Ten mark. They won a game in the Big Ten tournament to finish with 21 wins and solidify their NCAA positioning. An overtime loss to Cincy in the big dance ended the year. It wasn’t a massive turnaround but the product was better and led to some lofty expectations for this year.
The source for hope comes from that 9-3 run being a learning experience with very little roster turnover. Jon Octeus (9.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.0 spg) is the biggest loss. The CSU transfer really helped the backcourt in his final year of eligibility. In his lone year at Purdue he contributed nearly 28 minutes a night and as you can tell from that stat line, impacted the game in a variety of ways.
Also gone is Bryson Scott (3.8 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 1.2 apg) who transferred to IPFW. He had a decent freshman season but all of his numbers dipped last year. Clearly his confidence was impacted as he went from a respectable 38.5% three point shooter to just 12.5%. Hopefully he regains his swagger at his new school and can finish his career in style. Anfernee Brown (1.7 ppg, 1.7 rpg), Neal Beshears and John Mckeeman have also moved on in their careers.
Leading the way for the optimistic Purdue fans is seven foot senior A.J. Hammons (11.9 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 2.8 bpg). The big man is obviously a defensive keystone but his shooting percentages and points per game have improved with each season, culminating in leading the team in scoring last year. He’s even a solid free throw shooter despite being so big. His senior season has started well, nearly averaging a double-double and still sniffing three blocks a night.
Also back is Raphael Davis (10.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 2.6 apg). The 6’5″ senior guard isn’t the greatest shooter in the world, under 50% every season and just a 30% triple shooter, but he does so much else that it is easy to overlook that. Young gun forward Vince Edwards (8.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.7 apg) had solid freshman debut. At 6’7″ he is big enough to go against most fours but we already have seen him attempting (and making) more three’s this year to help improve his game.
A guard, a forward, and a center. Nice start. The rich get richer though. 6’6″ guard Kendall Stephens (8.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.6 apg) may have been behind Davis and Octeus a year ago but he has been solid as a freshman and sophomore. Expect the same this year. His three point shooting has struggled at times this year, but he has the track record to indicate that figure should come up. 7’2″ Issac Haas (7.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg) is only a sophomore but by learning from Hammons he is already becoming a force.
Rounding out the returning pieces are 6’4″ guard Dakota Mathias (4.8 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.4 apg), 6’6″ forward Basil Smotherman (5.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg), 5’10” guard P.J. Thompson (2.4 ppg, 1.1 apg), 6’9″ forward Jacquil Taylor (2.2 ppg, 2.0 rpg), and Stephen Toyra. Of this group Mathias gets the most playing time with 19 minutes a night. Expect him to inherit the guard time opened up when Davis graduates.
One of the reasons Purdue gave Painter a healthy leash even with those back-to-back sub .500 years is his recruiting prowess. He was at it again this off season. 6’9″ C/F Caleb Swanigan highlights this class. He was 9th in ESPN’s top 100. The 5-star recruit turned down Kentucky, Duke, MSU, and Arizona to stay in-state. Not surprisingly he is already averaging 10.2 ppg and nearly 9 boards a night. Combined with Hammons give Purdue an elite front court and if those are paired with Edwards as a flex 3/4 extra big, this team can go huge on anybody in the nation.
6’5″ guard Ryan Cline has also decided to stay in-state. The 4 star kid has a lot of experienced players ahead of him right now but look out for him in the future. A third Indiana native was also scooped up by the Boilers. 6’2″ guard Grant Weatherford, a 3-star player. Like Cline, he is more a future prospect than an impact player for this year’s squad. Preferred walk on Grady Eifert is also in the fold. Adding some back-court experience is transfer guard Johnny Hill. Hill is on his third team of his career but showed some flashes with both Illinois State and UTA. Expect him to help guide the second unit and step in if foul trouble hits either Davis or Stephens.
Best Case
Thanks to traveling so much for the holidays and going out to the Rose Bowl I am well behind on these previews, no? I would say Purdue has already started their best case, going 11-1 in the non-con. With MSU and the always well-coached OSU appearing just once, anything less than 10 league wins would be stunning for Purdue. If they can catch a few breaks (i.e. split with Maryland), they could even win the league. From there a solid seed and a trip to the second weekend of the Dance – maybe more.
Worst Case
They remain in neutral. They have already started 1-1 in league with a lackluster win over Wisconsin and a home collapse to Iowa. The ease of the schedule keeps them from completely tanking but a disappointing 9-9 finish in the Big Ten puts them on the bubble as well as raise concerns about Painter again.
Prediction
Painter’s recruiting has always been envied and when his clubs play defense, they are formidable but I’m not as sold on his offensive Xs and Os. We’ve seen that cost them already against Butler and Iowa – and nearly bite them against Wisconsin. I know this team is talented enough to win 10 league games and make the dance. I’m not as confident they get up to the 13 or 14 win mark to really push MSU, Maryland or surging Iowa for a league crown.
The scary thing is that once in the tournament, they might be the best equipped team in the Big Ten. I know the NCAAs are all about guard play but for the first two or three rounds it is more about match-ups and Purdue’s size with two 7 footers and a probable one-and-done in Swanigan make them a towering team. Assuming they get a top 5 seed, what is a club like Rhode Island (current A-10 leader, tallest player is 6’9″) going to do? With that in mind, a run to the second weekend seems probably. The Elite Eight possible and the Final Four not a fantasy. Painter has himself a solid squad.
Big Ten and Counting 