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Josh’s Week 15 Top 25

Outside of Navy’s game with Army, the regular season is done, the championship games are done and we know where everyone is going for bowls.  Barring a stunning Army upset or the Middies doing something insane like dropping a hundred on their rival, these rankings should be pretty set until after the bowl season and CFP.

Real AP Poll:

  1. Clemson (51) – This team is pretty tough to beat when they have the refs helping too.  Not that I think there is a conspiracy but the optics for the ACC having awful officiating all year and then a horrible missed call helping out their number one team and only lock for the CFP looks dreadful.
  2. Alabama (9)
  3. Michigan State (1)
  4. Oklahoma – I’m surprised this team couldn’t get a single first place vote.
  5. Stanford
  6. Iowa
  7. Ohio State
  8. Notre Dame
  9. Florida State
  10. North Carolina – A pissed off bunch of Tar Heels wanting to show the world they belong.  I sort of remember TCU in a similar situation last year.  How did the Frog’s bowl game turn out?  Oh yeah, 42-3 over Ole Miss.
  11. TCU
  12. Northwestern
  13. Oklahoma State
  14. Houston
  15. Oregon
  16. Ole Miss
  17. Michigan
  18. Baylor – Yikes, guess once they couldn’t win a league title they decide not to try.  Who is Baylor playing in their bowl game?  That North Carolina team?!  Uh-oh.
  19. Florida
  20. Utah
  21. Navy
  22. LSU
  23. Wisconsin
  24. Temple
  25. Western Kentucky – Welcome to the party, AP.  Been rocking the Hilltoppers for a couple weeks now!

My Top 25:

  1. Oklahoma
  2. Clemson – That defense got shredded and they needed some help to survive.  I wondered if they were starting to wear down and/or get exposed or were just disinterested the last few weeks.  I think UNC’s performance in three of the four quarters show there is something about this Tigers team that can be exploited.
  3. Alabama
  4. Michigan State
  5. Stanford – Yeah, I flipped them.  Why?  Well gutting out a victory over 12-0 Iowa to win the best conference in the nation is more impressive then waxing an 8-4 USC team for the second time on the year.  Still think Stanford is worthy of the tournament and another fine example of why this thing needs to be eight teams.
  6. Iowa
  7. Ohio State – I had my Hawks ranked above OSU last week, too.  Rankings reflect your record and your team, not your potential.  If it were based on potential, OSU would be undisputedly number one.  Their roster is fantastic but they nearly lost to Indiana and Northern Illinois and lost at home to MSU with the Spartans relying on their backup quarterback.  Iowa went toe to toe with a full strength MSU team and came up just seconds and inches shy of beating them.  OSU’s points were all created off turnovers and short fields.  In fact, without the gaffes, MSU would most likely have won that game in a shutout.
  8. Notre Dame
  9. TCU
  10. Houston
  11. Florida State
  12. North Carolina – Bumped them up one spot because of how fierce they played Clemson.
  13. Michigan
  14. Oklahoma State
  15. Navy
  16. Northwestern
  17. Oregon
  18. Ole Miss
  19. Baylor
  20. Western Kentucky
  21. Memphis
  22. Wisconsin
  23. Florida
  24. Temple
  25. SEE BELOW – Final Verdict

See Below – What the hell is that?

Who will be the last team to get into the most prestigious rankings on the internet?  Well, I see 12 teams all with some intriguing arguments.  As always, the conferences with multiple teams get weeded out first.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Pitt went 8-4 (6-2) in a surprisingly good season for first year coach Pat Narduzzi, who had a team go through some incredible adversity.  They had close calls against Iowa, UNC, and Miami.  They took down 4 bowl-bound clubs, three of them on the road.  Miami also went 8-4 (5-3) but has taken down three traditional bowl-bound teams and a fourth in Nebraska *sigh*.  As much as I prefer Pitt’s resume, Miami has the head-to-head win.

ACC Nominee: Miami

Pacific 12 Conference

Remember Washington State?  They went 8-4 (6-3) with wins over four bowl-bound teams, three of those coming on the road.  Utah narrowly missed winning the south and is 9-3 (6-3).  They also have wins over four clubs heading to bowls but only two of them on the road.  Worse, they went 1-2 down the stretch while WSU’s only loss in the final month came against arch rival Washington when the starting quarterback was out with injury.

Pac 12 Nominee: Washington State

Southeastern Conference

A three-way of southern clubs with Georgia 9-3 (5-3), LSU 8-3 (5-3) and Tennessee 8-4 (5-3).  LSU went 1-3 the final month while UGA hasn’t lost since November first.  Tennessee can do better, they haven’t lost since October 24th and knocked off this Dawgs team.

SEC Nominee: Tennessee

Elimination Time

Miami, Wazzu and the Vols join pesky USF, independent stalwart BYU, MAC champ Bowling Green, Mountain West champ SDSU, and Sun Belt champ Arkansas State as the official eight teams vying for one last spot.

FCS Much?…Annoyingly this criteria isn’t too helpful with this group of teams as all but Bowling Green played FCS schools.

Bad Game(s)…USF may have come on strong after an opening month from hell but losing to Maryland has to take the cake.  Sorry Bulls.  Miami had 58 and 59 points dropped on them as well as a loss to Cincy.  The turnaround post firing Golden was nice (4-1) but I don’t rank on nice.  I really want to rank Arkansas State but getting drubbed by USC and Toledo as well as a loss to sub-par Missouri cannot be defended.  Washington State may not have had their starting quarterback against Washington but he didn’t play defense and so that doesn’t defend them giving up 45 points…or the loss to FCS Portland State in the opener.

Final Four

You cannot run, you cannot hide, your highlights and lowlights will now be exposed in Best Win / Worst Win, Best Loss / Worst Loss.

  • Tennessee
    • Best Win: Georgia
    • Worst Win: FCS
    • Best Loss: @ Florida (by 1, when UF had Will Grier)
    • Worst Loss: Oklahoma (by 7, choking the game)
  • San Diego State
    • Best Win: Air Force (MTW title game)
    • Worst Win: FCS
    • Best Loss: @ PSU (by 16)
    • Worst Loss: South Alabama (by 7)
  • Bowling Green
    • Best Win: Ohio, Maryland, or NIU (MAC title game)
    • Worst Win: Massachusetts
    • Best Loss: Memphis (by 3)
    • Worst Loss: Tennessee (by 29)
  • BYU
    • Best Win: Boise State
    • Worst Win: FCS
    • Best Loss: @ UCLA (by 1)
    • Worst Loss: @ Michigan (by 31, shutout)

First reaction, Bowling Green’s awful loss in the opener to a fellow contender doesn’t look too hot.  You can make the argument that they improved and came on strong, but their record over the final stretch isn’t as good as Tennessee’s or SDSU’s.  Falcons, out.

Second reaction is BYU getting shutout is ghastly.  Factoring in the loss to a bad Missouri team (albeit the Tigers were emotionally charged in that one) doesn’t look good, either.  Bon voyage, BYU.

I love this SDSU team and ripping off nine straight victories is damn impressive.  Winning a league is never easy and winning that game against AF was tougher once Maxwell Smith went down with a torn ACL in the regular season finale…but…Tennessee is also quite hot and their four losses are by a combined 17 points – almost as much as SDSU’s margin in Happy Valley.

Final Verdict:

25. Tennessee

League Breakdown:

6 – Big Ten

4 – American, Big 12, SEC

3 – ACC

2 – Pac 12

1 – C-USA, Independent

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