Well folks, here we are…the Big Ten title game in Indianapolis. The winner is about a 99.9% lock for the College Football Playoffs and the loser will head to a decent bowl game – but perhaps not the Rose (more about that below).
Michigan State Will Win If…
The defense continues like it has the last three weeks. The loss in Lincoln shook this team to its core and it has responded incredibly well. Through their first nine games the defense gave up 24 points per. Not horrible but against their toughest tasks – Oregon, Nebraska, Indiana and Michigan that ballooned to 29 points per game. In their 3-0 finish after the loss they are allowing just 12.3 ppg. All year they have been getting takeaways but even that has jumped since the loss.
Why bring up the defense? Well we know Connor Cook can move the ball and MSU will generate points. Iowa’s defense is a classic bend but don’t break unit. They utilize takeaways and field goals to limit opponents so for MSU to win, they need to post a number that the defense can keep the Hawks away from matching, which is obviously the point of the sport.
Iowa Will Win If…
They get a career day from C.J. Beathard and the defense gets to Connor Cook. MSU’s front is probably the best in the league but when the secondary gets torched, MSU can give up some points. Beathard got through a grueling stretch midway through the year when he was banged up but now that he is healthy / healthier the weather has shifted and he hasn’t had to pass as much. That changes with the dome. He has hit the 200 mark six times this year and the 250 mark twice. I think he needs at least 250 but more likely 300 to get Iowa on the board enough times to win.
The Iowa defense was stout to start the year but as injuries mounted on the line the pass rush started to lose steam. In Iowa’s best defensive performances, Wisconsin and Northwestern, the rush bullied Stave and Thorson. Obviously Cook is light-years ahead of either in both talent and reading the field so to give the secondary any hope, the pass rush has to get home. With Cook’s shoulder still not a hundred percent, any hits he takes really helps Iowa’s chances.
Position Breakdown
Iowa OL versus MSU DL
This ragtag offensive line has been up to every task this year and exceeded every expectation but we just saw Michigan State bulldoze Ohio State’s OL. Advantage – Michigan State.
Iowa Running Game versus MSU Rush Defense
Hawks have the 31st running attack on total yards with 2,444 on 506 carries for a decent 4.8 yards per carry. They also have 35 touchdowns. What makes Iowa’s game unique is they do it with three different backs. Jordan Canzeri is a reliable senior who seldom fumbles. He has decent speed and vision but isn’t particularly powerful. LeShun Daniels is the more powerful back but fumbled against Nebraska (a Kirk no-no) and has been dealing with a high ankle sprain the second half of the season. Potential x-factor is Akrum Wadley. In his young career he has had some fumble issues that have put him in Ferentz’s doghouse but he is by far the fastest running back on the team and has big play potential.
MSU’s rush defense is 17th in the nation, allowing just 3.6 yards per pop. Iowa just dominated Nebraska’s rush defense (10th) so despite having an advantage along the lines, I think there is a slight edge to the Hawks with this. Advantage – Iowa.
Iowa Passing Game versus MSU Pass Defense
Iowa is 89th in the nation with 20 sacks allowed – neither great. Michigan State has the 77th ranked pass defense but boasts a whopping 32 sacks on the season. This is where MSU’s advantage along the line comes into play. If they can get to Beathard, the odds of him having that career day and allowing Iowa to win are practically zero. Advantage – Michigan State.
Special Teams
Iowa has a 47% special teams efficiency rating. If that doesn’t sound very good it is because it isn’t. Iowa is 37th in punt return yards with zero TDs, 104th in kick return yards with zero TDs, 51st in net punting average, has missed five extra points for the 119th extra point percentage on the year and is 13/17 from field goals.
Sounds like MSU has this then, right? Michigan State is inexplicably worse, sitting at 104th in then nation with a 40.3% efficiency. They have 28 punt return yards. You read that right, 28. That is 123rd in the nation. Kick return yardage is 122nd nationally. Sparty has missed 2 extra points and is just 9/14 on kicks.
This is basically a wash in terms of the return game. Marshall Koehn does have a 57 yard game winner under his belt while Michael Geiger, seemingly dealing with the yips, buried that kick in Columbus so who the hell knows with these kickers. They’re so strange. Advantage – Even.
MSU OL versus Iowa DL
As stated Iowa is frighteningly thin on their defensive line, even before Drew Ott went down with injury. Big advantage for Michigan State.
MSU Running Game versus Iowa Rush Defense
Very quietly, MSU’s rushing attack has been pretty pedestrian for such a highly ranked team. They are just 80th in the nation with a pretty sour 4.0 yards per. Freshman LJ Scott is the team leader with only 618 yards on the season.
Despite the DL issues, the linebackers have read running plays well all year and come up with some great support, especially Josey Jewell. As a result the Hawks are 7th nationally against the rush in total yards and holding teams to just 3.4 yards per. Advantage – Iowa.
MSU Passing Game versus Iowa Pass Defense
The Spartans may only sit at 46th nationally – a solid, but not outstanding number – but it comes with an disclaimer since Connor Cook was out, bringing the team’s numbers down a tad. When he is healthy, he is the best quarterback in the league. The line has also yielded just 15 sacks on the year.
Iowa’s pass defense is feast or famine. Yes they have 8 interceptions from Desmond King and nabbed 4 against Tommy Armstrong Jr but overall they are just 65th. They have taken down the quarterback 27 times which is tied for 47th nationally, but the vast majority of those came in the first half of the season. Advantage – Michigan State.
MSU Advantages – 4
Iowa Advantages – 2
Even Aspects – 1
So the loser is going to Pasadena, right???
A recent story made it sound like the Rose Bowl was not going to automatically take the loser but was going to look at the rankings and make a judgement. It seems like that is setting the stage for taking Ohio State, no?
I read it the other way, honestly. The way the committee member made it sound, they value ticket sales and merchandise sales. Iowa has a long history of traveling to any bowl game and buying any shirt. The fact that Iowa hasn’t been out there since 1991 makes the fan base very hungry. I could see Iowa losing, falling behind Ohio State but the committee still taking them.
For Michigan State, that is where the fan fatigue might come in. In his quote he said you see a lot of excitement the first time a team is out there, less the second and a significant drop off on the third visit. Despite the obvious dig at Wisconsin, it is wroth keeping in mind that MSU was Cali-bound in 2014 and Ohio State was out there in 2010. I think if MSU loses, the Bucks will probably get the nod.
Now does any of this matter? So there are six New Years bowls. Two tournament games (Orange and Cotton this year), Rose, Sugar, Fiesta, and Peach. That means the top 11 all make bowls (plus the highest group of 5). I don’t see either Iowa or MSU falling out of the top 11, unless the game is grossly lopsided. Even if Ohio State gets to go to the granddaddy of ’em all, the Big Ten runner up will still get an excellent bowl to go to.
I’ve been to the Rose Bowl. It is fun, but I’ve also been to the Orange Bowl and that is just as fun but different. I know there is a large section of MSU and Iowa fans who will be sick if they get left out of Pasadena but to be honest, it isn’t the 1950s anymore.
As a matter of principle though, I don’t get the point of rewarding Ohio State which didn’t get to the title game. Deserve ain’t got nothing to do with it, you should earn the trip. We’ll see how it all shakes out.
Gambling Preview:
Iowa vs Michigan State
MSU -3.5, Over/Under 51
I think what makes MSU so scary is that they take advantage of any little mistake you make. They have a knack of turning short fields into seven. You can’t take any plays off with them. The good thing is, Iowa’s greatest strength is they don’t beat themselves. They handle the ball and play fundamental football, that’s why they can keep it closer than the casual fan is guessing or even pull an upset. The score that popped into my head was MSU 28-20 (a missed point after, naturally) and I’m sticking with that. MSU covers and under.
Lightning Round:
Iowa / Michigan State – MSU, Under
Big Ten and Counting 