In 2013-14, Nebraska ripped off five straight wins as part of an impressive 11-3 finish in Big Ten play to get them to the NCAAs. With much of the cast back, the Huskers were seen as a threat in league and a team that could make some NCAA noise. Instead the Huskers resorted to form, They won on February third and sat at 13-9 (5-5). From there they did not win again. Falling all the way to 13-18 (5-13).
What went wrong? Their best players played the whole season so it wasn’t injuries. Was it the Huskers having a target on their back for one of the few times in program history? Was the Big Ten improved just that much? Did Tim Miles forget how to coach? Is Tim Miles in over his head? The collapse was jarring so the questions are flying. Entering his fourth year and two sub .500 seasons to his name, this year is a big one for Miles. I don’t think he has to make the NCAAs to keep his job, but I do think a jump in league wins and/or consistency is needed for him to feel much safer about seeing a fifth season in Lincoln.
The improvement will come without one of Nebraska’s most electric players, Terran Petteway (18.2 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.1 spg). He really did it all for Nebraska during the last two years, leading the team in scoring last year and the year before. Perhaps NU’s slide can be attributed to his his worse shooting and rise in turnovers. While his 2013-14 year was brilliant, his numbers were still good in 2014-15 and I don’t think any player can ruin a team singlehandedly.
Other key players to depart the program are a sturdy forward in Walter Pitchford (7.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg) and Tarin Smith (4.5 ppg, 1.6 rpg). Smith was a 6’2″ freshman guard last season who averaged nearly 18 minutes a night as a reserve. His transfer to Duquesne removes an experienced player from a woefully young team.
Deeper on the bench, David Rivers (4.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg), Moses Abraham (1.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg), Trevor Menke, and Kye Kurkowski all graduated. Another graduated senior, Leslee Smith (3.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg), ended his Husker career on a bittersweet note. Smith was an athletic player who had flashes but was plagued by injuries. An ACL tear seemed to doom his final season but he rehabbed from it and remarkably saw the court for the second half of the year.
Other than Petteway and maybe Pitchford down low, the losses aren’t insurmountable for this Husker team. Helping the cause is Shavon Shields (15.4 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.1 spg). Shields is a gifted but aggravating player to watch. His three point shooting as a freshman and sophomore was respectable but last year it fell to 19.5% while taking nearly three a night from beyond the arc. His free-throw shooting was a strength last year but so far it has dipped 15 percentage points. At 6’7″ and listed as a forward, Shields’ perimeter shooting has to at least be a threat to keep defenses honest. It wasn’t last year and that undoubtedly contributed to the slide a little bit.
Benny Parker (4.2 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.7 apg) may only stand 5’9″ but the guard has shown enough for Miles to give him solid minutes off the bench. Tai Webster (3.9 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.2 apg) showed flashes as a freshman and sophomore. Now as a junior his game has matured and as a 6’4″ guard, his size gives him a better chance at scoring than Parker. Forwards Nick Fuller and Jake Hammond dealt with rocky freshman seasons but they provide some depth. Hammond at 6’10” is by far the tallest Husker and will be called upon to help anchor things in the paint.
Despite an erratic season last year, Miles assembled a very intriguing group of new faces. The most impactful is Kansas transfer Andrew White. Two years ago White barely played and quickly bolted the blue blood program. What people forget is when he was being recruited he was a 4-star, 94 grade, 48th in ESPN top 100, 11th best small forward nationally and the number one prospect in the state of Virginia. He has been a game changer already averaging 14.6 ppg and 4.6 boards in the early going. At 6’6″ Miles has shifted him more from a 3 to a guard. His three point shooting so far this season has been blistering.
Fellow 4-star recruits, Ed Morrow Jr, 53rd in ESPN’s top 100 and Glynn Watson Jr, 73rd in ESPN’s top 100 round out a pretty impressive collection of new faces. Morrow is a 6’7″ forward prospect but will probably need to develop more of a parameter game due to being undersized for his PF position as a prep star. Watson is a 5’11” point guard who is already contributing nicely. The biggest surprise in the early going is Australian import Jack McVeigh. Clearly an unknown to US recruiting circles the 6’7″ forward has been getting 18 minutes a night and not afraid to launch threes. Michael Jacobson, a 6’8″ forward prospect comes to Lincoln as a three-star kid.
Rounding out the incoming class is Johnny Trueblood, a 6’4″ guard, Bakari Evelyn, a 6’2″ guard, Malcolm Laws, a 6’1″ guard, and Tanner Borchardt, a 6’8″ forward. BJ Day still appears on rosters but the red-shirt freshman is retiring as a player due to a series of injuries. Anton Gill, a 6’3″ guard will sit out the year per NCAA transfer rules. He comes over from Louisville.
Best Case
Shields returns to his Sophomore year form and Andrew White dominates. The other four-star freshman also pan out. Despite not being the biggest team in the world, the post-game by committee works just well enough and the three point shooting of everyone else sinks enough shots to win nine or ten non-con games. Once in league they avoid a collapse like last year, hang around .500 and get to the NIT, setting things up nicely for next year as Miles continues to crush it on the recruiting trail.
Worst Case
Shields continues to slide and the undersized Huskers can’t maintain offensive balance, becoming almost exclusively a jump shooting team. Their difficult non conference slate hurts them more then toughens them up for league play. Another five-win league mark, which would be Miles’ third in four years gets him canned. Nebraska starts all over again, failing to capitalize on the surprise NCAA trip two years ago.
Prediction
I don’t like this team. I love the pieces, don’t get me wrong. I think anyone in the league would love to have Shields, White or those two stud freshman. The problem is there are too many overlapping pieces. How many times did I say someone was an undersized forward and needed to have a good jump shot to stretch the defense? Shields, Morrow and Borchardt are all tweeners. Not big enough for a 4 but not fast enough or reliable shooters to be 3s. McVeigh is facing the same thing as a 3 versus a 2. It is a conundrum.
I love Miles’ fiery nature and his work at Colorado State and making the NCAAs in year two at Nebraska make me believe he is still the right man for the job but between being young and undersized, I don’t know if this team can compete nightly in the Big Ten.
At 5-3 in the non-con they still have always pesky Creighton left. I think they will be 9-4 coming into league play. Even sniffing .500 seems like a miracle right now for this club. I expect another 5 to 7 win campaign resulting in about a 15-win year. Despite that, I would keep Miles, let him continue to nab good recruits and lure transfers as well as develop Morrow, Watson and McVeigh. Remember, this is Nebraska – one of only two power conference teams to never win a NCAA tournament game. They can afford to be patient with Miles and let him really grow this thing organically. A long leash could pay major dividends down the road.
Big Ten and Counting 