We all know the rub on the Wildcats…only power conference team to never make the NCAAs. For whatever reason NU just has never been able to get over the hump. Third year coach Chris Collins is used to succeeding in academic environments. He played for and was on Coach K’s staff at Duke. He is an Illinois native and I think the right man for the job. His first two years have been almost identical going 14-19 (6-12) and 15-17 (6-12) but there have been flashes. After a disastrous 10 game losing streak to fall to 1-10 in league last year, the Cats got frisky and won five straight. This is one of the biggest building projects in all of power conference basketball so it will take time. The nice thing is Northwestern has no expectations so they give their coaches a long leash. This program gave Bill Carmody 13 years. Heck, they gave Bill Foster 7 years and he finished 10th every year but one and went 54-141 (13-113) in his career.
The best news for NU fans is the continuity of the pieces. The departing cast is a whose who of less than valuable players. JerShon Cobb (6.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.6 apg) showed promise in 2013-14 but injuries derailed him as he earned his diploma after last year. Dave Sobolewski (2.6 ppg) never really fit into Collins’ vision for the program or kept pace with the talent coming in. By far his best season was 2012-13 when he played almost 35 minutes a night. He too graduated. Deep bench players to also earn their degree were Nick Segura, Johnnie Vassar, and Jeremiah Kreisberg. So…8.7 points per game that needs to be replaced. I think the Cats can do that.
Leading scorer from last year’s team, Tre Demps (12.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.6 apg) has picked up right where he left off. The 6’3″ senior guard is off to a 16 points per average here in the early going. He has the ability to go off, highlighted by a 23 point explosion against Indiana last year during that fun run in league play. Joining Demps is reliable senior big man Alex Olah (11.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.8 bpg). Olah is a 7’0″ 270 pound behemoth down low providing reliable defense and a solid low-post option for scoring.
It isn’t just graybeards chipping in. Sophomore Bryant McIntosh (11.4 ppg, 4.7 apg, 2.5 rpg) was as electric a freshman as we have seen from this program in a while last year. The 6’3″ guard’s three point shooting has exploded so far in the young season, paving the way for a 17.6 ppg right now. It will surely dip a little (I think) but the promise is there for McIntosh to be a special player.
Other returning players are Scottie Lindsey (4.4 ppg, 2.3 rpg), a 6’5″ sophomore guard, Sanjay Lumpkin (4.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg), a 6’6″ guard with a great nose for rebounding, 6’7″ forward Nathan Taphorn (4.1 ppg, 1.1 rpg), and Gavin Skelly (1.4 ppg, 1.9 rpg), a 6’8″ forward.
Lindsey and Lumpkin may get more playing time than originally expected due to Vic Law (7.0 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.3 apg) requiring season-ending shoulder surgery. Law is a talented wing guard who showed some promise last year as a freshman. As Collins grows this program, Law’s return next year as well as some other players getting more game action this year could turn out to be a blessing in disguise.
Obviously a program like NU isn’t going to have the sexiest recruiting classes but that doesn’t mean they can’t develop useful players nor snag a few gems. This year’s class is highlighted by Aaron Falzon, a 6’7″ power forward. The four-star, 75th in ESPN’s top 100 prospect turned down several marquee programs, including Notre Dame, to head to Welsh-Ryan Arena. Falzon is already paying off averaging over eight points a night. One thing to keep an eye on is he is attempting 4.6 threes a night and hitting a respectable 37.5% from there. Cats could have a legit stretch four on their hands.
Also incoming is Jordan Ash, a three-star 6’2″ local shooting guard who turned down DePaul and Purdue to come. The word is his three point shooting ability could make him annoying player to face. Derek Pardon, another PF standing at 6’8″ 215 is only a three star kid but Pitt liked him enough to offer a scholarship. Between Olah, Taphorn, Skelly and Falzon it is hard to see Pardon getting too much playing time this year. Charlie Hall is a walk-on but considering he is the son of Seinfeld’s Julia Louis-Dreyfus, you figure he will be able to be the team clown to provide plenty of laughs during those winter road trips.
Graduate transfer Joey van Zegeren (9.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.4 bpg) banged bodies for 20 minutes a night last year in the ACC with Virginia Tech. He is Olah’s backup but still nice to have someone come off the bench with as much experience as he does. He is another reason Pardon will most likely use this year as a redshirt.
Best Case
Let’s be honest, the non-con for this team is really easy. They could start out 12-1. From there just 8-10 gets them to that magical 20 win mark. They won six league games a year ago so adding to that total isn’t a stretch, especially with the development of McIntosh pared with the veterans Olah and Demps. Best case in all honesty is 20+ wins and a trip to the NCAAs.
Worst Case
The Law injury proves costly as the back court becomes Demps, McIntosh and question mark. Falzon plays like a freshman too many times once league play hits and the Cats stumble to a third straight six-win mark in league play. They get left out of both the NIT and the NCAAs.
Prediction
One nice thing about wrapping up some of these previews after the ball has been tipped is we’ve seen this Northwestern team. They are 6-1 with a wins over Missouri, Virginia Tech and an okay showing against North Carolina. I don’t think the 12-1 non con mark is a stretch. Once in league they get Minnesota, Penn State and Nebraska twice. Ohio State has been up and down and they face them twice. Speaking of up and down, NU hosts Wisconsin. They host Illinois and Rutgers. All eleven of those games are ones NU can battle in…why? Because I love this back-court. Demps and McIntosh look like the real deal. I’m going to go way out on a limb and say NU can go 9-9, that is a 21-10 mark and that my friends, get the Cats in March and all the jokes will end.
Big Ten and Counting 