Josh’s Week 14 Top 25

It was rivalry week so as you would expect, tight games ruled the college football landscape.  While there weren’t any major upsets, Florida and Notre Dame both went down, eliminating their CFP chances.  Florida can still muck up the works with a major upset of Alabama next week though – wouldn’t that fun?

Real AP Poll:

  1. Clemson (53) – I said they would cream North Carolina just a few weeks ago but after some close games, I’m not so sure.  I think the Tigers are just disinterested and now have a major target on their back, but we’ll find out in the ACC title game.
  2. Alabama (8)
  3. Oklahoma
  4. Iowa
  5. Michigan State
  6. Ohio State – Can the Big Ten get two teams in?  I think to have any shot, Florida has to pull the massive stunner first because I’m not convinced a UNC win knocks Clemson all the way out, as crazy as that sounds.
  7. Stanford
  8. North Carolina
  9. Notre Dame
  10. Florida State
  11. TCU
  12. Baylor
  13. Northwestern – Fourth ten-win team in school history and just the third to hit that mark in the regular season.  Based on how awful (and young) the offense is, you can make a compelling case for NU to be the western division favorites next spring.
  14. Oklahoma State – This wasn’t supposed to be a great OSU team yet they won 10 games, well done Gundy.  A potential team for the future like NU.
  15. Oregon
  16. Ole Miss
  17. Houston
  18. Florida
  19. Michigan
  20. Temple
  21. Utah – Really?  A shaky victory over Colorado gets them re-ranked?  Hmmmmm.
  22. Navy
  23. LSU
  24. USC
  25. Wisconsin – Fun fact, Badgers have beaten zero bowl eligible teams yet are considered one of the 25 best teams in the nation.  That warrants a major hmmmmmmmmmm.

My Top 25:

  1. Clemson
  2. Oklahoma
  3. Alabama – Don’t trust Coker as much as I did a few weeks ago.  Really need to see a strong performance against anemic Florida to become a believer again.
  4. Stanford
  5. Michigan State
  6. Iowa – I love my Hawkeyes as much as the next Iowan but I think Standford is a better version of Iowa and MSU’s best beats Iowa’s best.  The good thing is…these rankings are pointless for the Big Ten teams.  Whoever wins in Indianapolis is in because they will have fewer losses than Stanford and Stanford won’t get as good a bump due to the Pac 12 South beating up on each other.
  7. Ohio State
  8. Notre Dame
  9. TCU
  10. Houston – They would be undefeated had Greg Ward Jr. not missed a game due to injury.  Still love this Cougar club.
  11. Florida State
  12. Michigan
  13. North Carolina
  14. Baylor
  15. Oklahoma State
  16. Florida
  17. Navy
  18. Northwestern
  19. Oregon
  20. Ole Miss
  21. Temple
  22. Western Kentucky
  23. SEE BELOW – Jump to Final Verdict
  24. SEE BELOW – Jump to Final Verdict
  25. SEE BELOW – Jump to Final Verdict

See Below?  What the hell is that?

Three spots and by my count fifteen clubs with logical arguments.  As always I’ll dump teams from conferences with several nominees first:

American

Memphis (9-3, 5-3) lost three late while USF (8-4, 6-2) lost three early.  Thankfully these two teams played each other and the Tigers came out ahead.

AAC Nominee: Memphis

Pacific 12 Conference

Washington State (8-4, 6-3) just lost to rival Washington but had to go without their starting quarterback.  Do you hold that against them?  USC (8-4, 6-3) just won the south thanks to knocking off UCLA but lost to Oregon, a team both WSU and Utah (9-3, 6-3) beat.  The fact that USC has a head-to-head victory over Utah and going 1-2 down the final three has me bouncing the Utes.  I’ll keep the other two around…for now.

PAC 12 Nominees: Washington State, USC

Southeastern Conference

Georgia (9-3, 5-3) may have fired their coach but they haven’t lost in a month.  Tennessee (8-4, 5-3) has won five straight, gave Alabama fits and beat Georgia.  LSU (8-3, 5-3) just knocked off a decent Texas A&M team (who I had ranked) but is that enough to overcome a late three game slid?  I don’t think it does.  Thanks to the head to head win, I’m surprising even myself and going with the Vols.

SEC Nominee: Tennessee

Elimination Time

Memphis, WSU, USC and Tennessee join Wisconsin, Southern Miss, BYU, Bowling Green, SDSU and Arkansas State as the official ten to pair down.

First Cut – FCS Much?…Tennessee and Arkansas State have 8 wins, the fewest of this group yet both played FCS teams.  If you toss that out does a 7-3 Sun Belt team and a 7-4 SEC team sound worthy of ranking?  They don’t to me.

Second Cut – Bad Game(s)…Between their first and last game WSU went 8-2, unfortunately they opened with a loss to an FCS team and were smoked by Washington.  I can make excuses about their starting quarterback being out, but it will fall on deaf ears.  BYU was shut out by Michigan – bad.  But they also lost to a struggling Missouri team and their Boise/Nebraska wins don’t look as impressive now.  Speaking of Nebraska, Southern Miss lost to them and lost by 21 to Marshall.  Cougars x 2 and Golden Eagles are out.

Final Five

The Trojans, the Aztecs, the Falcons, the Badgers, and the Tigers now face my favorite test…the Best Win/Worst Win, Best Loss/Worst Loss:

Bowling Green

  • Best Win: Ohio
  • Worst Win: UMass
  • Best Loss: Memphis (by 3)
  • Worst Loss: Tennessee (by 29)

Memphis

  • BW: Ole Miss
  • WW: FCS
  • BL: @ Houston (by 1)
  • WL: Navy (by 25)

SDSU

  • BW: Colorado State
  • WW: Hawai’i/Wyoming
  • BL: @ Penn State (by 16)
  • WL: South Alabama (by 7)

USC

  • BW: UCLA
  • WW: Idaho
  • BL: @ Notre Dame (by 10)
  • WL: Washington (by 5, held to 12 points)

Wisconsin

  • BW: Nebraska
  • WW: Miami (OH)
  • BL: Iowa (by 4)
  • WL: Northwestern (by 6, held to 7 points)

First thing that catches my eye is that Bowling Green has the worst loss and a head-to-head loss of a team from this group.  They’re gone.  The second thing that catches my eye is that South Alabama game.  I really want to reward SDSU for running off eight straight and going undefeated in the Mountain West but the Jags are under .500 in the Sun Belt.  They’re getting closer though.  I usually knock out the Aztecs before this stage.

Final Verdict:

23. Memphis

24. USC

25. Wisconsin

League Breakdown:

6 – Big Ten

4 – American, Big 12

3 – ACC, SEC, Pac 12

1 – C-USA, Independent

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