Richard Pitino is just 33 years old. When Minnesota took a gamble on him after the 2012-13 season it was seen as a move that could pay off with a guy coaching the next 20-30 season. A Coach K for a new era. That was the best case scenario. An NIT championship that debut season was impressive. 2014-15 started red hot with an 11-2 non conference slate. Unfortunately they took advantage of some soft foes and come league play fell back. An 0-5 start was ugly but there was promise with a 4-point loss, 2-point OT loss, 5-point loss and a 2-point loss. Those teams were @ Purdue, OSU, @ Michigan, Iowa.
They won five of the next seven to get back to 5-7 in the league but a sloppy finish and 1-1 in the Big Ten tournament resulted in a 18-15 (6-12) step back. So is Pitino on the hot seat? Well, it is a different era but Coach K’s first three years at Duke were 17, 10 and 11 win seasons with just 13 ACC wins over three years. Pitino has 25, 18 and unknown with 14 league wins to his credit. If the master plan was to have a young coach with a high ceiling and let him go about things, then no…his seat cannot be warm at all. If UM treats him like any other coach who fails to make the NCAAs or win regularly in the league, then sure…fire him and continue the spin cycle of coaches.
Any improvement for Minnesota will be without Andre Hollins (13.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.7 apg) leading the way in the back-court or Maurice Walker (11.8 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.3 bpg) owning the paint. It is never a great sign when your two of your three leading scorers have graduated but let’s be honest, 18 wins is not where the Gophers want to be and these were players recruited by the last regime. Who knows how well they fit in Pitino’s overall vision of this program.
Other departures are DeAndre Mathieu (8.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 4.3 apg) who was a spitfire of a player at just 5’9″. Daquein McNeil (3.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.5 apg), Elliott Eliason (3.0 ppg, 3.0 rpg), and Kendal Shell have graduated. Josh Martin who appeared in just 7 games last year has also left, transferring to Cal Poly.
For Minnesota to improve upon six league wins they will rely heavily on Carlos Morris. The senior guard averaged 11.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg, and 2.1 apg and at 6’5″ he is certainly big enough to scrap in such a physical league. Joey King (9.7ppg, 3.0 rpg, 1.5 apg) is another senior. The 6’9″ forward has already stepped up his game averaging a blistering 17 points per night so far on the young season. Nate Mason (9.8ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.8 apg) was a dependable freshman a season ago. The maturation of the 6’1″ guard will be key for the Gopher’s to climb up the league standings.
Other returning players are Charles Buggs (3.6 ppg, 2.0 rpg), Bakary Konate, a 6’11” project from Africa, Gaston Diedhiou, another big from Africa, Mike Lukashewich, a 6’3″ guard and Darin Haugh, a local kid and 5’10” guard. Buggs’ role on the team has already improved greatly with nearly 28 minutes a night and averaging 8.4 ppg and 4.4 rpg. The 6’9″ forward has really helped the front-court production along with King.
The Gopher recruiting class may not have made waves like some other conference foes but they certainly held their own. Kevin Dorsey, a 6’0 guard from Maryland was a 4-star kid who turned down an offer from the Terps to come to the Twin Cities. Jordan Murphy, a 6’7″ small forward from Texas may have only been a 3-star but he received offers from Baylor, Marquette, Maryland, Memphis, Oklahoma and others before picking the Gophers. Ahmad Gilbert, a 6’6″ SF and local kid turned down mid major power Wichita State. Lastly Dupree McBrayer, a 6’3″ shooting guard and 79 graded 3-star kid joins the club. Walk-on Stephon Sharp, a 6’4″ local kid from Hopkins, MN is also in the fold.
The disappointing thing about UM is their most prized recruit, Jarvis Johnson, a 6’1″, 4-star kid who turned down Iowa State and Michigan State among others, is sidelined for the foreseeable future with a heart condition. It is unclear if he will ever play the game again. He collapsed in a game as an 8th grader but had an outstanding prep career. Not being medically cleared at UM is both confusing and disappointing for everyone but the young man’s health is the top concern.
A pair of transfers will sit out this year per NCAA rules. 6’10 center Reggie Lynch joins from Illinois State and Davonte Freeman comes in from College Station and the TAMU program.
Best Case
UM is 3-2 but they shake that off and win out in the non con to start 10-2. From there they hang on for a 9-9 league mark and sit on the bubble for the NCAAs. A decent showing in the Big Ten tournament gets them in. Jarvis Johnson gets cleared to play in the off season and Nate Mason’s promising start to his career takes off.
Worst Case
The cracks shown in their two losses already continue in league play. They end up just 7-11 in the Big Ten and go under .500 overall. The pressure mounts and Pitino gets canned. After serving as an assistant for a couple seasons, he gets hired to replace Bo Ryan, has a 35 year coaching career and wins six national titles.
Jarvis Johnson, angered at not being medically cleared transfers to Iowa where the UIHC finds a way to make it safe for him to play. He averages 25 and 11 as the Hawks win a national title next year.
Williams arena somehow collapses in the off season and they hire Todd Lickliter to replace Pitino.
Prediction
The Gophers sit at 3-2 this young season with neutral site losses to Temple and Texas Tech. The Owls are a solid program and the game was a close 5-point loss but Tech is a lower level power five team and they took care of the Gophers pretty good. The rest of their non-con is manageable with just Clemson in the Big-Ten ACC challenge and Oklahoma State as tough ones. If they at least split those and go 6-1 in their remaining 7 non con that will be a 9-3 start.
In league they get two games against Illinois, Northwestern, Rutgers as well as Nebraska and Penn State. That is 8 games right there they have a decent shot in. If they can tread water and win 8 or 9 league games that is probably enough for another NIT. Remember, Pitino’s expectation for this season took a huge hit when Jarvis Johnson was taken off the board. Patience is the key for him and this team.
Big Ten and Counting 