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Josh’s Week 13 Top 25

Holy upset Saturday!  Okie State goes down, Utah goes down, Ohio State goes down, Florida/Oklahoma/Notre Dame all survive and advance.  With so much carnage, it isn’t surprising the AP poll looks radically different.

Real AP Poll:

  1. Clemson (55)
  2. Alabama (6)
  3. Iowa
  4. Notre Dame
  5. Oklahoma
  6. Michigan State
  7. Baylor
  8. Ohio State – does this feel like enough of a drop?  I’d be tempted to go lower based on their resume and performance at home against a depleted MSU team.
  9. Oklahoma State – Told ya (smiley face).
  10. Florida – At least they won (looking at you So Car).
  11. North Carolina
  12. Michigan
  13. Stanford
  14. Florida State
  15. TCU – Down four spots for a one-point road loss without any players…hmm.  I hope they beat Baylor just to prove a point now.  Wait, musn’t take sides.
  16. Navy
  17. Northwestern/Referee Hybrid Team
  18. Oregon
  19. Ole Miss
  20. Washington State
  21. Houston
  22. Random Pac 12 team that won (UCLA)
  23. Random SEC team that won (Mississippi State)
  24. Toledo
  25. Temple

My Top 25:

  1. Clemson – The way they took care of Wake Forest as a disinterested team going through the motions before the ACC title game was impressive and when compared to some other team’s lackluster efforts, not too shabby.
  2. Alabama – Honestly the stock is starting to dip.  Their marquee win (LSU) doesn’t look to hot right now, does it?
  3. Michigan – Yes, two losses but @ Utah to open the season isn’t horrible and the MSU game was chaotic, to say the least.
  4. Notre Dame
  5. Florida – Was it disinterest or a sign of things to come?  Looking forward to the FSU game to know for sure.
  6. Oklahoma
  7. Iowa
  8. Stanford
  9. Michigan State
  10. Baylor
  11. Oklahoma State – Look, I’m not going to bash Okie State for losing to a good Baylor team.  The problem I have with the Pokes is a fundamental belief in football.  I think defense and rushing is more portable in road games and more reliable come winter.  Seeing teams like Oregon and like this OSU team fall doesn’t make me feel smarter, it just tends to point to my belief about being football correct.  On the flip side, BYU winning a title with a run and shoot WAC offense in the 1980s proves the passing attack right.  It is just a different approach to the game.
  12. Ohio State
  13. TCU
  14. Houston
  15. Navy
  16. North Carolina
  17. Washington State
  18. Toledo
  19. Northwestern – Here’s the rub, yes it is easy to make a joke about the refs helping NU out but at the end of the day turnovers are a fundamental aspect of the game.  Wisconsin had five of them.  You don’t deserve to win being that careless with the rock.  Hats off to the Wildcats at finding a way to steal a road game.
  20. Oregon
  21. Ole Miss
  22. SEE BELOW – Jump to Final Verdict
  23. SEE BELOW – Jump to Final Verdict
  24. SEE BELOW – Jump to Final Verdict
  25. SEE BELOW – Jump to Final Verdict

See Below, what the hell is that?

So by my estimation there are 20 teams all with legit arguments to grab a part of this poll.  I’ll cut down the multiple conference contenders:

American

Temple (9-2, 6-1), USF (7-4, 5-2), and Memphis (8-3, 4-3) all can make claims.  Memphis is the weakest having lost three straight, including a head to head against Temple.  They may have a strong win (Ole Miss) but they no longer look worthy to me.  The Bulls owned Temple, 44-23 and are peaking but they lost to this Memphis team and Maryland.  Their FCS win also makes their overall a lot less impressive.

AAC Nominee: Temple

Conference USA

The top four from this league all can make interesting case studies.  Western Kentucky (9-2, 7-0) and Marshall (9-2, 6-1) have appeared in this for weeks but Louisiana Tech (8-3, 6-1) and Southern Miss (8-3, 6-1) now also look worthy of mention.  I’m booting to two teams from the west because Tech lost to WKU and played an FCS team.  So. Miss lost to Marshall and played an FCS team.  WKU crushed the conference foe that beat Marshall and played a harder schedule but has the same overall record.

C-USA Nominee: Western Kentucky

Mid American Conference

We all know how much I love Bowling Green (8-3, 6-1) but they lost at home to Toledo putting their rank in doubt and bringing Northern Illinois (8-3,6-1) into this conversation.  BGSU’s losses are better (Tennessee, Memphis, Toledo) and knocked off two Big Ten teams while not scheduling an FCS team.  Northern’s losses (Ohio State, Boston College, Central Michigan) don’t stack up but NIU did beat the Toledo team that took down the Falcons.  I still like BG for not playing an FCS team (NIU did) and beating a pair of Big Ten clubs.

MAC Nominee: Bowling Green

Mountain West

Air Force (8-3, 6-1) and San Diego State (8-3, 6-1) are the division leaders in this conference.  They both played FCS teams, Big Ten teams and an extra bowl-bound team.  Unfortunately the Falcons lost to Colorado State, a team SDSU killed so in the universe of common opponents, that is a nice tiebreaker.

MTW Nominee: SDSU

Pacific 12 Conference

UCLA (8-3, 5-3) just got a monster head-to-head against Utah (8-3, 5-3) but the Utes beat Oregon, Michigan, and Arizona State – a team the Bruins lost too.  UCLA’s best win is Cal and beat Arizona – a team Utah beat.  Honestly neither of these teams is going too far regardless but Utah also beat that Cal team and has way more signature victories, despite the head-to-head loss.

Pac 12 Nominee: Utah

Southeast Conference

Miss State (8-3, 4-3) and Texas A&M (8-3, 4-3) magically jump back into discussion.  MSU just beat Arkansas so they are hot(?)…but, they lost to TAMU and were smoked by Alabama.  Oh yeah, they lost to LSU, too.  A&M beat ASU, Arkansas, MSU, and just throttled Vandy.

SEC Nominee: Texas A&M

Elimination Time

Okay so Temple, WKU, BGSU, SDSU, Utah and TAMU join Pitt, Wisconsin, BYU, and Arkansas State as our nine for final four spots.

First Cut – Bad Game(s)…oh the category that kills San Diego State.  SDSU has three losses, one of which to South Alabama.  Sorry Rocky Long, see you next week.  Utah was blown out by USC, lost to a sub par Arizona team and just put up 9 points in a stinker to UCLA.  See ya.  BYU was shut out by Michigan and lost to a struggling Missouri team.  So long.

Second Cut – FCS Much?…Arkansas State has to be commended for a 7-0 start in Sun Belt play but at just 7-3 overall, their 0-3 FBS mark in non-con looks bad and then you throw in a FCS win.  6-3 in the FBS is not worthy of getting ranked.  Damn, I was hoping to justify slipping the Red Wolves in some how.

Final Six

We are down to just six teams for four spots so I will bring out the best tool in my chest and that is the Best Win / Worst Win, Best Loss / Worst Loss resume breakdown.

  • Temple
    • Best Win: Penn State / Memphis
    • Worst Win: Central Florida
    • Best Loss: Notre Dame (by 4)
    • Worst Loss: @ South Florida (by 21)
  • Western Kentucky
    • Best Win: Louisiana Tech / Vanderbilt
    • Worst Win: North Texas
    • Best Loss: @ Indiana (by 3)
    • Worst Loss: @ LSU (by 28)
  • Bowling Green
    • Best Win: Ohio
    • Worst Win: UMass
    • Best Loss: Memphis (by 3)
    • Worst Loss: Tennessee (by 29)
  • Texas A&M
    • Best Win: Mississippi State
    • Worst Win: FCS
    • Best Loss: Alabama (18)
    • Worst Loss: Auburn (16)
  • Pittsburgh
    • Best Win: @ Duke
    • Worst Win: FCS
    • Best Loss: @ Iowa (by 3)
    • Worst Loss: Notre Dame (by 12)
  • Wisconsin
    • Best Win: @ Illinois
    • Worst Win: Hawaii
    • Best Loss: Iowa (by 4)
    • Worst Loss: Northwestern (by 3)

Immediate reaction…when Bowling Green was ripping off win after win, the UT loss didn’t look as bad but now that they are really being vetted having the worst loss in this bunch doesn’t look good.  Plus their Maryland and Purdue wins are great compared to other MAC schools but doesn’t even make this list as their best wins.  Sorry Falcons.

Other reaction, UW has yet to beat a team that will make a bowl game.  That does not look good compared to these teams.  Even BGSU has done that, as Ohio is a bowl team for sure.  Bucky, out.

Final Verdict:

22. Temple

23. Pittsburgh

24. Texas A&M

25. Western Kentucky

League Breakdown:

5 – Big Ten

4 – Big 12, SEC

3 – American, ACC, Pac 12

1 – C-USA, Independent, MAC

 

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