Thirteen teams in action over six league games and Rutgers heading off to West Point. Nebraska gets the extra week to prepare for Iowa. A downright scary notion for all Iowa fans. Three big games, two of which feature Michigan schools take center stage this week. This is crunch time in the league and the picture for Indianapolis will get that much clearer after Saturday. All times central.
Game of the Week:
Michigan State at Ohio State
Two top-ten teams battle it out. A OSU win makes the season finale against Michigan a play-in game for Indy (assuming UM beats PSU). A MSU win not only impacts the CFP but puts the Spartans back in the sweepstakes for Indianapolis (assuming they beat PSU next week). Whew, that’s a lot of math.
MSU has the best quarterback in the league, Connor Cook, but he got hurt last week. Uncharacteristically, the MSU defense has struggled all season. Ohio State’s greatest strength was their quarterback depth but the soap opera has negatively impacted both players’ performances. Despite ups and downs this year, these are still the most talented rosters in the league.
- Saturday, 2:30pm, ABC
Sleeper:
Daaaaamnnn, those are some good looking helmets! This is a big game in Happy Valley. Michigan winning out along with an MSU stumble at any point puts the Wolverines in Indianapolis. Even more confusing, let’s look at Penn State…
This Week:
- Penn State beats Michigan
- MSU beats OSU
- Result:
- PSU 2 league losses
- Michigan 2 league losses
- Michigan State 1 league loss
- Ohio State 1 league loss
Final Week:
- PSU beats MSU
- Michigan beats OSU
- Result:
- PSU 2 league losses, tie breaker over Michigan and MSU
- OSU 2 league losses, tie breaker over PSU
- Michigan 2 league losses, tie breaker over OSU
- MSU 2 league losses, tie breaker over Michigan and OSU
Your eastern division champ would then be……No clue. I think aggregate goals is then used, right?
As crazy as it sounds, Penn State still has plenty to play for. Even though there are a ton of moving parts for them, they can dramatically improve their bowl standing and finish the season strong. Holy crap, there has been a ton of math in this preview so far!
- Saturday, 11am, ABC
Don’t Forget:
Okay the math is much simpler in this one…Wisconsin makes Indy if they win out and Iowa loses out. An Iowa win or Wisconsin loss on Saturday wraps up the west. For Northwestern they have a shot at something that has been just twice in school history (1995 and 1903) and that is a ten-win regular season. Hell, if you extend to bowls for double digit win seasons they go all the way up to…three. So winning out and getting ten victories would be a historically great season for NU.
- Saturday, 2:30 pm, BTN
Snoozer:
By law if you have a game where the combined win-loss is 5-15, you have to be the snoozer game. Considering this is a non-con game in November, I have no other choice. I will say this though, of Army’s 8 losses, six are by a single score. They might give a disinterested RU team a run.
- Saturday, 11am, CBSSN…not that I am supposed to play favorites as a league blogger but, Go Knights! Unless they are playing Iowa or Wisconsin, I pull for the men and women in uniform. Knocking off a Big Ten school would be a great accomplishment and get Army psyched up for their massive tilt coming up against the Middies.
Upset Watch:
Right End – After all the turmoil of a narrow (some might say cheap) victory over Michigan and then stubbing their toe against Nebraska, taking down the Bucks would be about as right an upset scenario as possible.
Wrong End – Michigan is a road favorite at Penn State for a reason. PSU has struggled against good defensive teams (losses to Temple, OSU and Northwestern) and Wolverines have everything to play for in this one since logically Ohio State should knock off Michigan State. For them to tumble against Penn State would leave a sour taste in their mouths without question.
Elsewhere (Alphabetically):
Illinois at Minnesota – pits a 5 win team (UI) trying to get a bowl versus a 4 win team needing to win out. Illinois finishes with Northwestern so based on record, this is the easier game. Minnesota has rival Wisconsin next but has been playing some good ball despite the losses. Interestingly, Illinois’ road performances have been pretty brutal. That should give the Gophers confidence.
- Saturday, 11am, ESPNN
Indiana at Maryland – Hoosiers have to win out to make a bowl. Considering they have Purdue next, I think they have a shot. Maryland has nothing to play for in this one and we know how good the Hoosiers can look, especially offensively. I think Wilson’s squad gets it done in College Park.
- Saturday, 11am, no tv listed – might be able to get it on the BTN 2 Go app; otherwise radio.
Iowa vs Purdue – The 5th ranked Hawks can clinch Indianapolis with a win on senior day. Purdue showed some friskiness against Northwestern but I still like the odds of that Iowa defense taking on a freshman quarterback. Weather might be interesting in this on. Iowa City is expected to get 4 to 7 inches of snow starting Friday night or Saturday morning.
- Saturday, 11am, ESPN2
Random Musing:
The Wisconsin-Northwestern history is a lot closer than I think most casual fans would think. UW leads the all time mark 57-34-5 but since the dark ages of NU football and Bucky ripped off 13 straight (’72-’84), the series is deadlocked at 12 apiece. Most of the time the home team wins, in fact NU’s last win in Madison was 2000 while the Badgers haven’t won along the North Shore since 1999. The nice thing about divisions is these teams will play every year for the foreseeable future, giving this game a little more intrigue – especially if a division title is in play like it is this season.
All stats of course from the awesome team over at winsipedia.
Big Ten and Counting 