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Josh’s Week 12 Top 25

Washington State, Oregon and USC all enter the polls.  Despite losing Utah and Stanford remain ranked giving the Pac 12 five teams in the real AP but none higher than 15th.  I think the Pac 12 is deep, but not elite.  Seems like there are lot of B+ to B- rated teams and then Oregon State chilling as a D- team.  It is interesting and raises the old question of do they beat themselves up because of depth, or are they deep because there is no elite team?  If Utah or Stanford win out and go 11-2 with the conference championship, their final CFP standing will go a long way in telling us if the committee thinks the Pac 12 is or is not elite.  Fun times out west.

Lastly, on the pod cast I have a different top-10.  I know, what can I say?  First, the show was an off the cuff question that I didn’t have time to fully flush out all my thoughts.  Second of all, the top 4 is identical.  No team has too much of a swing from where I said they should be last night to this column.  It not like I said Clemson was #1 last night to then rank them 15th.  I am also fully aware excuses are like assholes – we all have one and they all stink.  So yup, my bad for not having my standings match perfectly.

Real AP Poll:

  1. Clemson (34)
  2. Ohio State (23)
  3. Alabama (4)
  4. Oklahoma State – Oh boy…this is the team that beat Texas by 3, Kansas State by 2 and West Virginia by 7.  When they get creamed in Bedlam, don’t worry, I’ll tell ya so.
  5. Notre Dame
  6. Iowa
  7. Oklahoma
  8. Florida
  9. Michigan State – And just like that, they are back in the hunt.  If they win out, I think they will get in the CFP.  Ohio State made it from the Big Ten with a loss last year.  Winning out would get them wins over Ohio State and Iowa (most likely, still a slim chance Wisconsin wins the West), taking out two teams ahead of them.  The Oklahoma schools face each other and Notre Dame still has Stanford left and Alabama has the SEC title game.  Lots of football left.
  10. Baylor
  11. TCU
  12. North Carolina – Is there a hotter team in America?  Oklahoma, maybe but what a rise for the Fightin’ Fedoras.
  13. Houston
  14. Michigan
  15. Stanford
  16. Florida State
  17. LSU
  18. Utah
  19. Navy
  20. Northwestern
  21. Wisconsin
  22. USC
  23. Oregon
  24. Washington State – Very, very happy for the Cougs.  It’s a shame they lost to Portland State to start the year, otherwise they would probably be top 20 right now.
  25. Ole Miss – No.

My Top 25:

  1. Ohio State
  2. Alabama – The Ole Miss loss is troubling, I’ll admit.  If Alabama struggles in their rivalry game at Auburn or to Florida, I won’t hesitate to drop them but the eye test tells me this is the SEC’s best team and that defense is scary.
  3. Clemson
  4. Notre Dame
  5. Florida – If that defense can make Alabama one-dimensional, we will finally get to see if Jake Coker has the game to put the team on his shoulders.
  6. Michigan
  7. Oklahoma State
  8. Houston
  9. Oklahoma
  10. Iowa
  11. Stanford
  12. Florida State
  13. Baylor
  14. TCU
  15. Michigan State
  16. Bowling Green
  17. Navy
  18. Wisconsin
  19. Northwestern
  20. North Carolina
  21. Utah – Woah, 11 spots.  Yeah, I’ve just never been too high on Utah.  Their great defensive identity has sort of faded the last few weeks and I’m not sure they can beat too many of the teams I have ranked around  them.
  22. SEE BELOW – Jump to Final Verdict
  23. SEE BELOW – Jump to Final Verdict
  24. SEE BELOW – Jump to Final Verdict
  25. SEE BELOW – Jump to Final Verdict

See Below?  What the hell is that?

So the real poll likes USC, Oregon, Wazzu and Ole Miss in those last few spots.  I loved USC a week ago but they struggled with Colorado.  The other three obviously have some flaws and I’m not ready to dump Temple or Memphis just yet so I need to work through this.

Nominees:

  • Temple
  • Memphis
  • Pitt
  • Penn State
  • WKU
  • Marshall
  • BYU
  • Toledo
  • SDSU
  • WSU
  • Oregon
  • USC
  • Georgia
  • LSU
  • Ole Miss
  • Arkansas State

Whew, 16 teams for four spots.  I think the first thing is to compare teams head-to-head from the same conferences because obviously they don’t all deserve to be in (although the Pac 12 is for the real poll).

American

Temple 8-2 (5-1) boasts wins over PSU, Cincy, and played Notre Dame tight before a 21 point loss at USF.  Memphis 8-2 (4-2) beat that same Cincy team, Ole Miss and USF but was shelled by Navy and choked against Houston.  They also beat Bowling Green, a team I am extremely high on.  PSU and Ole Miss are both 7-3 so they cancel out.  They both beat Cincy so that cancels out.  That leaves tight losses to Notre Dame and Houston.  Well those tend to cancel out since they are both solid teams.  That leaves USF as one argument and since Temple lost to them and Memphis beat them, Memphis gets the nod for now.  The Tigers’ win over BG is the clincher for any remaining doubt.

AAC Nominee: Memphis

Conference USA

WKU 8-2 (6-0) has played three power conference teams and went 1-2 in those games.  Could have gone 2-1 but a bitter loss at Indiana flips that mark.  They also beat Louisiana Tech, the current division leader in the other side of the league.  Marshall 9-2 (6-1) played one power conference team and beat them (Purdue).  They also lost to Ohio – a middling MAC team and Middle Tennessee State, a team WKU destroyed.  Also Marshall played FCS Norfolk, the Hilltoppers did not sink the lower division.  WKU and it isn’t even close.

C-USA Nominee: Western Kentucky

Pacific 12 Conference

All three teams are 7-3 and 5-2 in league so there will be a lot of hair splitting.  Oregon has the most eyebrow raising win, taking down Stanford but is that enough to get into the rankings?  After all they gave up 60 points to Utah, a team USC beat easily.  Oregon also lost to Washington State.  Lastly, the Ducks played an FCS team and Georgia State – one of the newest FBS teams.  They do not stack up right now to the Cougs or the Trojans.

Pac 12 Nominees: Wazzu, USC

Southeastern Conference

Don’t look now but Georgia is 7-3 (5-3) while LSU 7-2 (4-2) and Ole Miss 7-3 (4-2) are trending down, the Dawgs seem to be regaining confidence.  Ole Miss’ resume comes down to beating Alabama.  They were smoked by Florida and Memphis.  Their other wins include an FCS team, Fresno and New Mexico State – two of the worst FBS teams possible.  One bright week does not make a ranked team.  The Dawgs lack a signature win like Ole Miss.  They were also smoked by Florida.  Lastly, they were roughed up by Alabama so if Ole Miss is out with beating Alabama, then UGA has to be out.  That leaves an ugly looking LSU team left.

SEC Nominee: LSU

Elimination Time

So by dumping some of the teams from conferences with multiple nominees we are down to Memphis, Pitt, PSU, WKU, BYU, Toledo, SDSU, WSU, USC, LSU and Arkansas State.  11 teams for four spots.

First Cut – Bad Game(s)…Penn State gave up 10 sacks to Temple, lost by 28 to Ohio State and lost at a good but not great Northwestern team.  That doesn’t sound like top-25 material.  BYU may have an impressive 7-3 record but they were shutout by Michigan and their five game winning streak was snapped by a bad Missouri team.  See ya.  SDSU remains a mystery as they have gone 6-0 in the Mountain West but started 1-3.  Of those three losses, two weren’t close and a third was to South Alabama.  Adios Aztecs.  Arkansas State may be owning the Sun Belt right now but they were smoked by USC and Toledo.  For good measure they also lost to that Mizzou team.  So long RedWolves.

Second Cut – FCS Much?…By no means is Pitt the only team to play FCS schools but it does ding them here in the chance to make my top-25.  They are 7-3 so by removing that win over Youngstown State, they are just 6-3 against equal competition.  Sorry boys, you remain out.

Final Six

Memphis, Western Kentucky, Toledo, Washington State, Southern Cal and Louisiana State all get to the harshest level of criteria.  The dreaded Best Win / Worst Win and Best Loss / Worst Loss segment.  Take a look:

  • Memphis 8-2 (4-2)
    • Best Win: Bowling Green (or Ole Miss)
    • Worst Win: FCS
    • Best Loss: @ Houston (1 point)
    • Worst Loss: Navy (25)
  • Western Kentucky 8-2 (6-0)
    • BW: @ Vanderbilt
    • WW: @ North Texas
    • BL: @ Indiana (3 points)
    • WL: @ LSU (28 points)
  • Toledo 8-1 (5-1)
    • BW: @ Arkansas
    • WW: Eastern Michigan
    • Lone Loss: Northern Illinois (5 points)
  • Washington State 7-3 (5-2)
    • BW: @ UCLA (or @ Oregon)
    • WW: Wyoming
    • BL: Stanford (by 2)
    • WL: Portland State (FCS)
  • USC 7-3 (5-2)
    • BW: Utah
    • WW: Idaho
    • BL: @ Notre Dame (by 10)
    • WL: Washington (by 5, held to 12 points)
  • LSU 7-2 (4-2)
    • BW: Florida
    • WW: Eastern Michigan
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: @ Alabama or Arkansas (by 16 and 17, totally dominated in both)

The first thing that catches my eye is WKU with a head-to-head loss to LSU, a team with their own footing tenuous at best.  I love what WKU does and respect them for playing three power league teams but at this juncture they have to go.  The second thing that stands out is the Memphis loss to Navy.  25 points is a brutal loss but when stacked up against these other teams, it looks even worse.  No team in this group has suffered a 20 point loss at home.  It pains me to have to sit Memphis because I hold their Bowling Green and Ole Miss wins in such high regard but for this week, they sit.

So I know my four…Toledo, WSU, USC and LSU.  Thanks to common opponents I know Toledo is ahead of LSU (thanks Arkansas) and I know WSU’s four road wins highlighted by Oregon and UCLA are more impressive than USC’s road victories so despite the FCS loss, I’m giving the Cougs the nod over the Trojans.  Therefore…

Final Verdict:

22. Washington State

23. Toledo

24. USC

25. LSU

League Breakdown:

6 – Big Ten

4 – Big 12, Pac 12

3 – ACC, SEC

2 – American, MAC

1 – Independent

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