Cut me off if this sounds familiar, OSU won the majority of their non-conference games, were over .500 in the league, made the NCAAs and won a game. Yup, even when there are questions about the Buckeyes like there was in 2014 they find a way to answer most of them. 2015 is no difference due to the one-and-done departure of D’Angelo Russell (19.3 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 5.0 agp, 1.6 spg). The thing is Thad Matta runs a machine there. Yes he will rely on some young guns again this year but the formula is pretty proven considering he has missed the NCAAs just twice. The first was year one in Columbus when they were on probation. The other year they missed the NCAAs was a season removed from being NCAA runner-ups and lost everyone. It wasn’t all bad, they were NIT champs that year.
Russell isn’t the only key cog gone. Sam Thompson (10.2 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.8 apg) and Shannon Scott (8.5 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 5.9 apg) were reliable seniors. Their experience blended well with Russell but of course all three are no longer lasing them up for the Crimson and Silver. Three other seniors further down the bench graduated this spring. Amir Williams (6.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg), Anthony Lee (3.4 ppg, 2.3 rpg), and Trey McDonald (2.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg) were all forwards or centers. That is a lot of experience post muscle Matta can no longer call upon. Williams was the best of the trio averaging nearly 20 minutes a night, stood 6’11” and wasn’t afraid to throw around his 250 pound body.
Six players gone, three of them playing prominent roles. That begs the question, who the hell is back? The most important player returning is Marc Loving (9.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg). He improved dramatically as a sophomore. His shooting was up across the board but most alarmingly was his three point touch jumping from 1.7 attempts a night and hitting just 25.9% to attempting 3.2 a night and draining 46.1% of them. At 6’8″, 215 pounds the forward can pose a lot of problems if his deep range continues to flourish.
Another forward is Jae’Sean Tate (8.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg) who was one of the highest regarded recruits in the state of Ohio last season. His continued development will solidify the front-court. Kam Williams (5.4 ppg, 1.0 rpg) had some moments last year as a freshman guard, most notably a 23 point explosion against High Point. The 6’2″ guard is the only returning player from the back court. Expect him to play a larger role. Keita Bates-Diop (3.8 ppg, 2.1 rpg) is a reserve forward who saw some action last year but hit double-digit minutes just four times in league play. Undersized at 6’7″ he will need to work on his three point shooting (18/42 last year) to try and be a three or stretch four. Trevor Thompson and Jake Lorbach are also back. Thompson is a 6’11” sophomore and most big men are projects so if Matta thinks he has anything for later in his career, expect to see him get some game time, especially in the non conference.
That wasn’t too inspiring, was it? Good news is OSU has seven – yes SEVEN – incoming freshman to help the cause. As you would expect from this program and Matta, there are some gems in this class. Five four-star recruits are coming in. The highest rated of the bunch is JaQuan Lyle – 6’5″ PG, 42nd in ESPN top 100 will have to contribute immediately. It is logical that Loving and Tate will form the front court but Williams right now is on an island in the guard positioning.
Lyle is joined by Austin Grandstaff – 6’4″ SG, 50th in ESPN top 100 as a prized recruit. Grandstaff turned down Arizona, Maryland and all the home state Texas schools to come up north. At just 188 pounds right now, I’m not sure Grandstaff has the build yet to muck it with Big Ten bodies but his scoring touch is undeniable. A.J. Harris – 5’9″ PG, 80th in ESPN top 100 rounds out the 4-star guard section. I’m pretty sure Lyle has one of the starting spots filled. It will come down to if Grandstaff’s body is college-ready, if Williams’ game has improved or if Harris can be a facilitator to figure out the rest of the back-court.
Daniel Giddens – 6’10” 59th in ESPN top 100 is a critical get for Matta as the two best returning forwards are Loving (6’8″) and Tate (6’4″). We know Matta relies on big bodies down low with Greg Oden being the most notable example. Mickey Mitchell – 6’7″ is the last four-star grab for Ohio State. It is doubtful he will play too many minutes considering his game is similar to Loving’s and Loving is a proven talent. Still the depth he can provide is nothing to ignore. 3-star kid David Bell is a 6’9″ center project and walk-on Joey Lane round out the roster.
Best Case
Loving continues to develop, Lyle is the real deal and an upset of Kentucky in the non-conference gets this team to league play at 13-0 and ranked #1 in the nation. While they come back to Earth a bit in league they still manage a 13-5 league mark to finish 26-5 and nab a 2 seed in the NCAAs. From there they put a run together.
Worst Case
Kentucky as well as some of the other tricky non-conference games trip up OSU and they enter league play at 9-4. Once in the Big Ten the freshman look more like traditional freshman and less like Russell. A 9-9 league finish puts the Buckeyes at 18-13 and not looking too hot for the NCAAs. They go 2-1 in Chicago but twenty overall wins is not enough and they get a number one seed in the NIT. Matta keeps his woefully young team motivated and they make the NIT finals.
Prediction
Ohio State started last year 11-2 and went 11-7 in league play. Both are doable again. The non-con includes Virginia, @ UConn, Kentucky and Memphis (neutral site). Let’s be a pessimist and say they go just 1-3 in those but 10-3 overall in the non-conference. In league play I see 4 stone cold home locks (Minnesota, Rutgers, Penn State, and Northwestern). Other manageable games would be Illinois, Iowa, @ Northwestern, @ Rutgers, and @ Nebraska. Even a pessimistic outlook would say 3-2 in those games. That puts the math at 7-2. Does anyone honestly believe OSU won’t be competitive in the other nine league games? Even a pedestrian 4-5 gets this club to 11-7 (21-10). I don’t see how this team doesn’t make the NCAAs. The question for the future though is how many of these prized recruits stick around. Russell was always going to be a one and done, but these five freshman may be in the fold for a while. Look out for this team next year.
Big Ten and Counting 