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Josh’s Week 11 Top 25

Ohio State’s dreams of a wire-to-wire finish have been dashed as the ACC’s Clemson Tigers’ 9-0 record filled with resume builders bests OSU’s 9-0 mark.  Clemson snagged the top spot in the AP but not the coaches; however for this column, I only use the AP.  Reason why?  None really, it is the most historic major poll still used.  Plus the coaches can’t really watch all the games and there is an obvious conflict of interest.  The AP certainly isn’t great, but it has fewer flaws….I guess.

  1. Clemson (31)
  2. Ohio State (26)
  3. Alabama (2)
  4. Baylor (2)
  5. Oklahoma State
  6. Notre Dame
  7. Stanford
  8. Iowa – Fun story with Iowa…If they win out, everything will work out for them to make the tournament.  Assuming the CFP poll mirrors the AP, Baylor/Okie have a head to head, Notre Dame/Stanford has a head to head.  Ohio State will either lose before, or Iowa can take care of them in Indianapolis.  That gets Iowa to at least 5th and based on UW and Northwestern getting re-ranked, Iowa’s schedule isn’t looking so bad now, is it?  Still a long shot, yes, but hypothetically the pathway is there.
  9. LSU
  10. Utah
  11. Florida
  12. Oklahoma – This is the team to look out for if you want a 2014 style OSU run.  They are at Baylor next, still have TCU to pad the resume and then Bedlam with the Pokes.  No one has a schedule as back-loaded as the Sooners.
  13. TCU
  14. Michigan State – They still have a decent Penn State team and OSU left.  If they win out and defeat the western champ in Indy, they would have a similar resume to Ohio State.  Michigan winning out also helps since a 10-2 or 9-3 Michigan team boosts Sparty’s resume.
  15. Michigan
  16. Houston
  17. North Carolina
  18. UCLA – Anyone else feel like they are going to drop the Washington State game?  It has felt like two steps forward, one step back all year for these Bruins.
  19. Florida State
  20. Mississippi State
  21. Temple
  22. Navy – Hmm, that name looks familiar.  Oh yeah, I had ’em ranked a week ago.
  23. Wisconsin – Umm, ditto the Navy comment.
  24. Northwestern
  25. Memphis

My Top 25

  1. Ohio State
  2. Stanford
  3. Alabama
  4. Clemson – Here’s why I tap the breaks ever so much with Clemson…3 point win over Louisville, 41 points allowed against NC State and nearly choking the Notre Dame game.  I concede they deserve to be in the CFP tournament but I’m not sure how they will do against a high powered offense like OSU (with JT) or a stout defense like Stanford/Bama.  Florida State’s defense is as good as Stanford and the Tide’s and you saw how much of a struggle that game became for Clemson.
  5. Baylor – Yup, the K-State game gives me a little pause.
  6. Notre Dame
  7. Florida
  8. Michigan
  9. Oklahoma State – Don’t worry Poke fans, you get a statement game against Oklahoma and Baylor left on your schedule.  This is just a right-now standing.
  10. Utah
  11. Houston
  12. Oklahoma
  13. Iowa
  14. Florida State
  15. TCU
  16. LSU – Didn’t like them before the Alabama game, like them even less now.  Too one-dimensional against good defensive clubs.
  17. Michigan State – Sparty has been playing with fire all season.  When they finally lost, I was going to have to ding them big time, thus the 11 spot drop from last week’s ballot.
  18. Temple
  19. Bowling Green
  20. Northwestern
  21. Navy
  22. Wisconsin
  23. North Carolina – Still don’t love the fact they played 2 FCS teams and the South Carolina loss is unforgivable but 66 points dropped on a really good ACC defense in Duke?  That caught my eye.
  24. UCLA – Difficult to swallow since they were blown out twice, once by Arizona State of all teams, but they were dealing with injuries at that time and hammering Oregon State 41-0 is impressive.  I know they are the bottom of the Pac 12 but shutouts get me all hot and bothered.
  25. SEE BELOW – Jump to Final Verdict

See Below?  What the hell is that?

Obviously the real poll has Mississippi State and Memphis ranked and I don’t…yet.  I’m holding on for a second now because I want to do my usual case study and see if the Bulldogs and Tigers are really as good as we think.

Nominees:

  • Western Kentucky
  • BYU
  • Toledo
  • Boise State
  • San Diego State
  • Washington State
  • USC
  • Ole Miss
  • Arkansas State

So nine teams outside the obvious answer of MSU/Memphis for a total of 11 teams to pare down to 2 slots.

Elimination Time:

First Cut – Bad Game(s)…Despite leading the Sun Belt, Ark State was crushed by USC and Toledo.  Their FCS win also makes their overall FBS record a lot less impressive at 5-3.  San Diego State has three losses, including one to South Alabama so despite an undefeated mark in the Mountain West, they’re gone.  Speaking of the MTW, I held UCLA out for a long time because they gave up half a hundred, something Boise did against Utah State.  They’re out.  Lastly Ole Miss gets the boot.  Three losses isn’t horrible but two of them were ugly.  28 points at Florida and 13 points at Memphis after jumping out to a 14-0 lead.  The fact they are coming off a loss is the final nail in the coffin for this poll.

Second Cut – FCS Much?…Unfortunately for the Pirate, his Cougar team not only scheduled but lost to FCS Portland State.  BYU has an FCS win putting them at 7-2 but take that away they are just 6-2 with an ugly loss at Michigan and a narrow victory over San Jose State.  They wait at least another week before getting re-ranked.

Final Five:

Miss State, Memphis, USC, Toledo and WKU still stand.  Now it is time for my favorite criteria: the best win/worst win and best loss/worst loss comparisons:

  • Mississippi State: 7-2 (3-2)
    • Best Win: Southern Mississippi (or Kentucky)
    • Worst Win: FCS
    • Best Loss: LSU (by 2)
    • Worst Loss: Texas A&M
  • Memphis: 8-1 (4-1)
    • Best Win: Ole Miss (then ranked 13) or at Bowling Green (I have as the 18th best team in the nation)
    • Worst Win: FCS (or Kansas)
    • Lone Loss: Navy
  • USC: 6-3 (4-2)
    • Best Win: Utah
    • Worst Win: Idaho
    • Best Loss: Notre Dame (on the road, by 10, just after firing coach Sark)
    • Worst Loss: Washington (at home, held to 12 points, coach probably drunk)
  • Toledo: 7-1 (4-1)
    • Best Win: Arkansas
    • Worst Win: Eastern Michigan
    • Lone Loss: Northern Illinois
  • Western Kentucky: 8-2 (6-0)
    • Best Win: Louisiana Tech (or Vanderbilt)
    • Worst Win: North Texas
    • Best Loss: Indiana (road, by 3)
    • Worst Loss: LSU (road, by 28)

You know what stands out the most to me, MSU’s lack of signature win.  The fact that they are barely over .500 in a much weaker SEC than recent memory has me moving away from the Bulldogs.  Another item that immediately caught my eye were Memphis’ wins.  Ole Miss is still a solid outfit and I am bullish on Bowling Green.  Tigers look like a no-brainer…but…

As much as I’d love to get WKU in there, I’m not sure they have a good enough win, despite the impressive undefeated mark in play.  Lastly the eye test hurts Toledo.  I watched every second of that NIU game.  They didn’t look like a top-25 team to me.  USC on the other hand has 3 straight wins and took down Utah, a top-10 team.

So, USC versus Memphis.  I had Navy ranked and they are a difficult offense, I’m going to vote for Memphis based on a much better overall record, but the Trojans are as close as you can get.

Final Verdict:

25. Memphis

League Breakdown:

6 – Big Ten

4 – American, Big 12

3 – ACC, Pac 12, SEC

1 – Independent, MAC

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