The fighting Illini entered 2014 with a bitter taste in their mouths. They opened ’13 with a 13-2 mark, only for an eight game losing streak to take them out of league contention. They regained some of their form late and made the NIT but under .500 in league play was not what anyone had in mind. Amazingly, last year played out almost identically as the disappointing 2013 campaign. A 10-3 start, which included a win over Bryce Drew’s Baylor team, showed both promise and cracks. Promise in that they were already halfway to the magical 20 win mark that puts you in a decent footing for the NCAAs but cracks in that they lost to Miami, Villanova, and Oregon. All teams as talented as Big Ten clubs. Once in league play they seemed stuck in neutral, settling for a 9-9 mark. A sour 2-5 finish to the season, including getting waxed in their opening Big Ten tournament game shipped them back to the NIT, where they went one and done to wrap up at 19-14 (9-9).
Illinois is a basketball crazy school that saw Bruce Weber go 21-15, 20-14, and 17-15 in his final three seasons. The last year his team started 10-0 before the 7-15 finish and he got fired. John Groce has gone 23-13, 20-15, and 19-14. He has also not seen a winning league mark with two ties for seventh place as his best finish. As fiery as Groce is and as good of a coach he seems to be, the fact is he is entering year four at Illinois and another hot start / cold finish without the NCAAs will be impossible to swallow. It could be NCAAs or bust for Groce’s staff. The good news for both him and Illinois fans is they have the talent to get there.
Some faces that won’t get to be along for the ride start with Rayvonte Rice (16.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.8 apg). The Drake transfer ended his career in style, leading the team in points and boards. What’s interesting is Rice missed nine games to injury last year but the club went 6-3 without him, including a win over Michigan State. The disappointing 2-6 finish (counting the Big Ten tournament and NIT) happened shortly after getting back from injury. Rice was talented, no question, but this team’s best stretch of league play came with him out. Sometimes offenses flow better without a super star. Sometimes an offensive stud can’t be hidden on defense. There are a million reasons why, but the facts are, Illinois might be better off without Rice despite all the positives he brought.
Other pieces gone include Nnanna Egwu (6.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1.8 bpg, 1.0 apg), Aaron Crosby (7.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.7 apg), and Ahmad Starks (7.7 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 2.2 apg). Egwu was a 6’11” lane-clogging center who was an all Big Ten defensive team selection and saw his game flourish over his four years on campus. Crosby and Starks were nice complementary pieces but Starks has graduated and Crosby, who had been suspended indefinitely, transferred to Western Kentucky. Deep reserve Austin Colbert (1.7 ppg, 2.2 rpg) has transferred to Old Dominion and Ryan Schmidt has graduated.
It’s crazy to think about but considering how this team played without Rice, it is easy to make the argument that losing such a valuable defender like Egwu is the biggest loss for Groce’s team. The good news is that the returning cast and fresh faces are a good mix. It all starts with Malcolm Hill (14.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.3 apg) as a 6’6″ guard Hill saw his game explode from freshman to sophomore season. Based on his trajectory, we could be looking at a serious threat to Big Ten player of the year as an upperclassmen. He is joined with Kendrick Nunn (11.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.9 apg) in the backcourt. Nunn is out about eight weeks due to thumb surgery but assuming all systems are go when he gets back, this is a fabulous one-two punch to have.
Unfortunately where things get hazy for Illinois is the rest of the returning cast. Leron Black (5.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg) is a bit undersized as a 6’7″ forward; however he was 0 for 3 from downtown so unless he talked to Dirk all summer, I’m not sure we have a stretch four on our hands. Jaylon Tate (3.6 ppg, 1.2 rpg, 2.9 apg) is a serviceable reserve guard but he averaged over 20 minutes a night and his numbers don’t jump out at you. 6’10” project Maverick Morgan (2.5 ppg, 1.5 rpg) is joined by Mike LaTulip and Cameron Liss as the returning players.
The reason there is hope is the outstanding recruiting class Groce has coming in. The leader of the pack is Jalen Coleman, a 6’4″ shooting guard who was ranked 34th in the ESPN top 100 and turned down Michigan, Notre Dame and Indiana among others to come to Champagne. Although a stress factor has made the start to of collegiate career a little bumpy, reports as of last month were that he was returning to basketball activity. Another prized recruit is 6’7″ small forward D.J. WIlliams. Williams is also a 4-star kid who cracked the top 100, landing at 68th. He is undoubtedly gifted athletically but there are plenty of guards with his height or close so as a 3, he might not find his game as well among the trees meaning his mid range and outside game will have to give him an edge.
Yet more freshman intrigue comes from Aaron Jordan, a 6’4″ shooting guard that passed on Wisconsin, Indiana and many other schools. He too is a 4-star recruit. The incoming freshman class is rounded out by 6’9 three-star forward Michael Finke. Finke had offers from Iowa and Wisconsin.
Three transfers add to the depth Illinois has and none is bigger than Khalid Lewis (6.0 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 2.2 apg). Although not huge at 6’3″, Lewis did it all at LaSalle and will be called on by Groce to contribute. Alex Austin, a 6’4″ guard, averaged 7 points per game a few years ago at Eastern Illinois and will hit the floor in 2015 after sitting out a year due to NCAA transfer rules. If that last name is familiar, it is because you’ve probably heard of his dad – Woody Austin from Purdue. Last but certainly not least is post grad transfer Mike Thonre Jr. He was a beast at Charlotte with 10.1 ppg and 7.3 rpg. Based on the uncertainty in the frontcourt, Thorne will probably be an opening day starter.
It is with regret that I even have to write this portion but the reason Lewis is so big as a transfer is the injury to Tracy Abrams. Abrams was outsanding in 2012-2013 and followed it up with an even better year in 2013-2014. Sadly he missed all of last year due to injury. This summer an achallias injury will cost him 2015-2016 too. Injuries are a part of any sport but it is such a gut-punch when they happen in the off season and to a kid coming back from another extended injury.
Best Case
Illinois races out to a 7-0 start before taking on Notre Dame in the Big Ten/ACC challenge. They pass that test and open the year 13-0. Once in Big Ten play they contend all year, eventually finishing in the top 5 with 12-14 league wins. The 25-6 to 27-4 record easily gets them into the tourney. They make the second weekend and from there, who knows.
Worst Case
Black, Williams and Thorne just never develop into a good low post group, forcing Illinois to rely on a lot of back court scoring and Illinois is too one dimensional. The season starts alright considering their toughest tests are @ Providence, Iowa State / Virginia Tech at a tournament, Notre Dame, and Missouri (neutral site). They will not lose all four. Even a split gets them out to 11-2. Once league play comes around the grind and lack of balance wears down Illinois. Another mid to late season collapse drops Illinois to 8-10 in league. The 19-12 mark puts them firmly on the bubble but an opening day loss in the Big Ten tournament ships them to the NIT. Groce is fired before a lifeless effort in the NIT opening round. Coleman declares for the NBA the next day.
Prediction
I know this team is relying on a transfer from Charlotte, a so-so sophomore, an undersized freshman or even the biggest worry of calling on Finke or Morgan to piece together some form of a front court but it is really difficult to ignore how good this back court is. Hill and Nunn are legit stars and Coleman/Jordan/Lewis are all promising players that will have roles on this team. I think their non conference slate is highly manageable. ISU lost their coach and Missouri has been a mess…it is clear their toughest games are Notre Dame (home) and at Providence. I’d be stunned if they start the year worse than 11-2.
Once in league I see six very promising wins. Hosting Minnesota, Nebraska, Rutgers twice, @ PSU and @ Northwestern. Let’s say they go 5-1 in those. They also have manageable games against Michigan, Iowa, @ Minnesota. Let’s say 2-1. Lastly they host Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue and Ohio State. Let’s say a split. That adds up to 9-4. Their other five games are road trips to OSU, MSU, Indiana, Wisconsin and Maryland. Even if they struggle with those road games and go 2-3, that adds up to 11-7. That would be 22-9! That was a conservative approach and the math is still there, people. I don’t see how this team doesn’t make the NCAAs other than bad coaching. I guess that’s why Groce’s seat is a little warm.
Big Ten and Counting 