We are rapidly approaching November…as in tomorrow is 11/1 which means the hoops season is closing in. Sounds like some previews better get going! Starting off with a team in the midst of a massive rebuild. Eddie Jordan enters his third season at the program but they face a long, long road to relevance. Last year’s club battled hard in the non-conference, going 8-5 but the wheels came off with the grind of the nation’s premier basketball conference. A 2-2 start showed flashes, including a win over a banged-up Wisconsin team, but after that major upset, they lost out. A final blowout in the Big Ten Tournament brought their mark to 10-22 (2-16). The scary thing is based on key departures, this team could take a step back if a few returning players and new faces fail to pan out.
Leading scorers Myles Mack (13.4 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 4.2 apg) and Kadeem Jack (13.0 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.1 apg) are gone from a team that managed just 59.3 points a game last year, good for a woeful 336th nationally. It gets worse, leading rebounded Junior Etou (7.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg) transferred to Tulsa. Kerwin Okoro (7.3 minutes, 2.0 ppg), Malick Kone (1.8 ppg, 1.6 rpg), Khalil Batie and Stephen Zurich have also moved on from the program. Only Okoro, an ISU transfer who is now at Norfolk State, is much of a loss. He was a dependable upperclassman who could steal a few minutes for coach Jordan from deep in the bench.
So…big shoes to fill. Where do they get their production from? Obviously Bishop Daniels (8.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.7 apg) will need to pick up a lot of slack. The 6’3″ senior guard was the third leading scorer on the team last year. Not a bad debut after sitting out a year because he transferred from Miami. His 28.3% from beyond the arc has to improve. Being a nice slashing scorer is good, but it is difficult to run an offense if your primary scoring threat before the season appears to be as one-dimensional as Daniels is. Sophomore guard Mike Williams (6.3 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.2 apg) survived his trial by fire as a freshman to put up some respectable numbers. For the Knights to have any hope, the backcourt of Daniels and WIlliams (if he beats out some new faces) has to produce.
Also returning is forward Greg Lewis (5.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg). Lewis is a senior and averaged almost 24 minutes a night last year. At 6’9″, 240 he is by far the largest big on the roster who saw meaningful time a year ago. It is doubtful at this point in his career he will take the leap, but if he can be a dependable player, that will do wonders for shoring up RU’s rotation. D.J. Foreman (3.8ppg, 2.7rpg) only averaged 10 minutes a night last year as a freshman but the 6’8″ forward saw the floor a lot more as the season wore on and Rutgers was getting blown out. Perhaps exchanged blows with more polished players will advance his game.
Reserves Shaquille Doorson, Jake Dadika and Jalen Hyde also return. Of the three, Doorson was the only one to see consistent playing time, appearing in 29 games as a freshman. Most bigs are projects and Doorson’s 6’11, 270 frame certainly qualifies as a big. He is the tallest player Rutgers has and outside Foreman and Lewis the only low post player to have much experience.
Clearly this team’s returning cast leaves a lot to be desired so with any rebuild, the young guns and fresh faces will need to contribute right away. Many rebuilds rely on transfers and Rutgers is no different. A pair of transfers will try and help solidify this team. The first is Omari Grier (7.9 ppg, 1.8rpg), a post grad transfer from Bradley. The three point shooting worry I have may be solved with Grier who hit 31.8% from downtown last year. The second is Nigel Johnson (5.2 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 1.7 agp) from Kansas State. He averaged nearly 20 minutes a night in the rugged Big 12 so he isn’t a pushover. Unfortunately he is a traditional transfer and will not see the court until next year, but he can help some freshman get up to game speed in practice…
…That’s right! Rutgers has a player to get really excited about. Corey Sanders, a 4-star recruit and 62nd in ESPN’s top 100, turned down a ton of schools in his Florida backyard as well as perennial tournament teams Marquette and Cincy to join Rutgers. It might be a gamble going this small but a three guard set with Sanders, Grier and Daniels with Williams as the sixth man could be the best option for Rutgers to space the floor and score. Another exciting addition is Deshawn Freeman, a 6’7 forward who can go to the wing if need be. He is a JUCO junior but was rated as the 16th best junior college player out there. He gives the Knights some flexibility if the three-guard option makes them too small.
Other new faces include Jonathan Jean Laurent – a 6’6″ small forward and 3-star recruit, Ibrahima Diallo – a 6’10” center and 3-star kid, and Justin Goode – a 6’3″ shooting guard prospect. Diallo and Laurent are key because the front court is confusing. If you go with three guards and Greg Lewis, you will be tiny with Freeman as the other big. That forces you to turn to Doorson or Foreman as starters. I’m not sure either can hold up playing starter’s minutes. That makes it more likely for Jordan’s staff to go with two guards, a flex player in Freeman, and Lewis as your center. That leads to some nice size and can then chose between more post players but can that lineup score enough? Decisions, decisions. Either way, Laurent and Diallo will most likely see the floor due to the depth down low this team lacks.
Best Case
Rutgers wins a mini recruiting battle game against either St. John’s or Seton Hall, takes care of Wake in the Big Ten-ACC challenge and wins at least a single game in their Las Vegas tournament. They hit the Big Ten slate at 9-3, already closing in on last year’s win total. Sanders lives up to the hype and Daniel’s grows as well, resulting in a better than expected guard tandem. Freeman also pans out. Rutgers manages to sniff .500 in the league before ending 7-11 when it is all said and done. The 16-14 mark isn’t beautiful but it is above .500 for the season and gives fans in New Jersey hopes that the program is on the right track.
Worst Case
Rutgers’ 15 game losing streak continues with some shaky play with so many new faces. Sanders has a rough go of things as a true freshman, the post players fail to provide much and the team finishes dead last in the league again with no more than five wins. A third straight 20-loss campaign gets beloved alum Jordan fired and the whole program is reset for 2016.
Prediction
I’ve certainly seen worse rebuilds, after all not many 20 loss teams nab a 4-star recruit. If Sanders lives up to expectations and he gets some, this team can fill the production of Mack and Jack. But those two only created a 10-win team. To surpass that, Lewis down low or Daniels – honestly both – have to provide a second and third scoring option. I think Rutgers will be improved but they are relying on youth, a transfer and a JUCO player to flush out a lot of holes for a reason. I doubt they go 2-16 in league play, but if they reach .500, that is monumental. I hope they get there because Sanders does have all the trappings of a fun player to watch but I have a feeling they ultimately end around 13 wins, just shy of .500.
Big Ten and Counting 