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Josh’s Week 8 Top 25

Welcome to the party AP!  I had Memphis, Temple and Houston ranked for weeks now and y’all finally joined me.

Real AP Poll

  1. Ohio State (28)
  2. Baylor (12)
  3. Utah (16)
  4. TCU (3)
  5. LSU (1)
  6. Clemson (1) – My goodness, six teams all with a first place vote?  I didn’t feel like going back throughout recent polls but the feels like a huge number.  Normally 3 or 4 teams get a vote or two, but we have 3 teams with double digit votes and another trio all receiving first place votes.  What a season so far!
  7. Michigan State
  8. Alabama
  9. Florida State – After sleep walking through at least 3 games, maybe even 4 if you think the USF game was a sleep walk, the ‘Noles finally looked like their old selves in a dominating win over Louisville.  With games against Clemson and Florida remaining on the slate, FSU will either be dancing again or spoil someone’s season.
  10. Stanford
  11. Notre Dame
  12. Iowa
  13. Florida
  14. Oklahoma State
  15. Michigan / Texas A&M
  17. Oklahoma
  18. Memphis
  19. Toledo
  20. California
  21. Houston
  22. Temple
  23. Duke
  24. Ole Miss – That Alabama win feels like 3 years ago, not 3 games ago, right?
  25. Pittsburgh – Talk about a quiet 5-1 (3-0) team.  Hats off to Pat Narduzzi for getting the Panthers into a great position for making the ACC title game.

My Top 25:

  1. Baylor
  2. Ohio State
  3. Alabama
  4. TCU
  5. Michigan State
  6. Stanford – That’s right, my top six is unchanged as they all won but honestly with so much football left, all these teams have a great crack at making the tournament.  With BU/TCU and OSU/MSU having head to heads, really anyone in the top 10 has a path to the tournament.
  7. Clemson
  8. Utah
  9. Notre Dame
  10. LSU – Okay, it isn’t just my top six but my top ten that has remained unchanged.  My top 10 went 10-0.  What do you want me to do?  Brag about being so smart?  I mean, I can…
  11. Florida State
  12. Memphis
  13. Michigan
  14. Florida
  15. Houston
  16. Oklahoma
  17. Temple
  18. Iowa – Josh, this is your team, why so low on ’em?  First of all, they could’ve lost that Illinois game.  Second of all, I picked Northwestern to go 0-8 in league play so despite a nice start, I was never sold on Northwestern.  The defense is good, but banged up without Drew Ott.  The offense has shown flashes but is down to their third string running back.  I’m not sure they have the fire power to go against a FSU or an Oklahoma right now.  Yes, 7-0 is awesome and I love the start but let’s not put a cart full of chickens eggs before the horse and then count those eggs before they hatch.  You smell what I’m stepping in?  Tap the breaks a little bit, let’s see how they look against a good offensive team at Indiana, a tough rivalry game against Minnesota and a tough road trip to Lincoln before crowning anything.
  19. Oklahoma State
  20. California – Bye week and jump in?  Sure, why not.  I had this team just barely miss the cut a week ago and their win over Washington State is looking better and better.  Had they not turned the ball over a bazillion times, they would’ve taken down mighty Utah, too.  Glad to finally get ’em in.
  21. Toledo
  22. Texas A&M – Down 10 spots?  Damn, you harsh.  Nah, not really – just reassessing the Aggies.  Their opening day win against ASU?  Well Sparky is just 4-3.  A one score win over Arkansas?  Hogs are 2-4.  TAMU’s best win is against a 3-2 Mississippi State team and they just got waxed at home by Alabama.  You tell me based on that resume where they should go?  Frankly not dropping them all the way out of the rankings seems compassionate.
  23. Pittsburgh – 5-1 and the lone loss was at Iowa and came on a 57 yard field goal to end the game.  Really a few plays away from 6-0.
  24. SEE BELOW – Jump to Final Verdict
  25. SEE BELOW – Jump to Final Verdict

See Below?  What the hell is that?

Okay, I have 2 slots left but a whole lot of teams so I wanted to break down my thought process.

Major Contender 1 – Ole Miss – Pros: 5-2, win over Alabama, both losses were on the road to ranked teams.  Cons: 1-2 in their last 3, uninspired win against Vandy, opening games were insanely soft (Tennessee Martin and Fresno State).  X-factor: ranked in real poll.

Major Contender 2 – Duke – Pros: 5-1, undefeated in ACC play, getting stronger each week.  Cons: lost at home to reeling Northwestern, best win (Georgia Tech) looks terrible now, played an FCS team.  X-factor: ranked in real poll.

Major Contender 3 – North Carolina – Pros: 5-1, ripped off 5 straight.  Cons: lost opening day at home to South Carolina, zero ranked opponents even faced this year, played 2 FCS teams.  X-factor: receiving votes in real poll.

Major Contender 4 – Arizona – Pros: 5-2, losses were while best player injured, looking better last two games.  Cons: Losses were by a combined 111-47.  Top 25 teams don’t give up half a hundred….twice.  X-factor: Pac 12 team?

Independent Contender – BYU – Pros: 5-2, wins over Nebraska, Boise State and 3 American conference teams.  Cons: The UCLA loss looks worse now, shut out at Michigan – do top 25 teams get goose egged?  X-factor: previously ranked, looked very strong against Cincy.

MACtion Contender – Bowling Green – Pros: 5-2, wins over two Big Ten teams, played very well against Memphis (3 point loss) and Tennessee.  Cons: 2-loss MAC teams seldom get a serious look.  Their 3 conference wins so far are Buffalo, UMass and Akron…a combined 6-13 on the season.  X-factor: they helped get Randy Edsall fired.

Mountain West (Non Boise State) Contender – Utah State – Pros: Just killed Boise State, both losses were on the road, competitive and against Pac 12 teams Utah and Washington.  Cons: 4-2 with one win coming over an FCS team.  X-factor: They just forced another turnover against Boise.

Sun Belt Contender 1 – Georgia Southern – Pros: 5-1, winners of 5 straight, top rushing attack in the nation.  Cons: best win is against the MAC’s Western Michigan, blanked by West Virginia, beat an FCS team.  X-factor: Matt Breida is insanely good and will probably run over me if I don’t consider ranking the Eagles.

Sun Belt Contender 2 – Appalachian State – Pros: 5-1, winners of 4 straight, already played 4 road games, winning 3.  Cons: Clemson beat them up pretty good (41-10), best win is against either Old Dominion or Wyoming (so not saying much) and they played an FCS team.  X-factor: Let’s make Michigan’s week even worse!

C-USA Contender 1 – Western Kentucky – Pros: 6-1, Brandon Doughty!, average 44 points per game and have the 3rd best passing attack so they are fun and gun baby.  Cons: Lost to Indiana, best win is either Vanderbilt or Louisiana Tech.  X-factor: They head to LSU this week so if they pull the upset, you’ll see ’em ranked next week regardless of where I put them in this poll.

C-USA Contender 2 – Marshall – Pros: 6-1, won six straight, beat a Big Ten team.  Cons: lost to Ohio, played an FCS team, might not be better than WKU in their own division and it is difficult to justify ranking WKU.  X-factor: I wouldn’t want to play them, would you?  God Doc Holliday can coach.

Elimination Time:

UNC, Utah State, Geo Southern, App State – Too much FCS help.  If you take those games away and just look at FBS records, they don’t belong.

Arizona, BYU, Marshall – Bad game(s).  Zona was drubbed twice, BYU blanked and Marshall lost to an Ohio team that ranked clubs shouldn’t lose to.

Final Four:

I’ve narrowed it down to Ole Miss, Duke, Bowling Green and Western Kentucky.  If you knock WKU for losing to Indiana, then you need to knock Duke for losing to Northwestern.  If you knock Bowing Green for having two losses, then you need to knock Ole Miss for also having two losses.  I think the fairest way is to look at the best win and worst win and the best loss and worst loss and cut out the middle part of their resumes:

  • Ole Miss – Best win Alabama, worst win FCS.  Best loss at Florida, worst loss at Memphis (when leading 14-0!)
  • Duke – Best win Georgia Tech, worst win FCS.  Only loss: Northwestern
  • Bowling Green – Best win Maryland, worst win UMass.  Best loss Memphis (by 3), worst loss Tennessee
  • Western Kentucky – Best win Louisiana Tech, worst win North Texas.  Only loss: Indiana

When you pull that out, Duke suddenly looks vulnerable.  They lack a marquee win and Northwestern is coming off back-to-back losses by a combined 78-10.  Worse, the loss was on Duke’s home field.  They’re out.

Western Kentucky also takes a hit because they lack a signature win and Indiana is now 4-3 after starting 4-0.  I really wanted to find a way to get the Hilltoppers in, but I don’t see how.

Final Verdict:

24. Ole Miss

25. Bowling Green

League Breakdown:

5 – SEC

4 – Big 12, Big Ten

3 – American, ACC, Pac 12

2 – MAC

1 – Independent

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