Week 4 Grades

Big Ten finished the non-con strong with another 12-2 performance by the league.  OSU and MSU remain atop the polls while Wisconsin and Northwestern climbed up some.  Michigan entered the rankings for the first time and Iowa is receiving enough votes to have you think a win in Madison will launch Iowa into the rankings.  All in all, good times for Big Ten fans.

Team of the Week: Michigan – A+ – Shutout a ranked team, held BYU to just 105 yards of offense and dropped 31 on ’em in the first half to coast to victory.  Solid game by all three phases.  A road trip to Maryland should be a soft way to enter league play before an intriguing showdown with Northwestern.

Illinois – C+ – It certainly wasn’t pretty being held under 400 yards by a C-USA team and needing a late field goal to win but let’s give a little credit.  UI gave up a safety and a sizable 24-12 lead going into the fourth and found themselves down 25-24.  Illini teams in the past would have closed up shop with the adversity but this team found a way to win the game.  Wes Lunt won’t set any passing records with days like he had but he didn’t turn it over and was effective when they needed him.

Indiana – B+ – The Hoosier’s M.O. this season has been a fun one.  Survive the first half, make adjustments, OWN the second half.  At Wake Forest they had a 17-10 lead when the bands came out but went on a 14-0 run in the second half to blow the thing open.  Yes, Wake scored twice in the fourth to make it interesting but worst case scenario was overtime.  I liked how the team responded with forcing a turnover on downs after the Wake onside kick to try and tie the game.  Sudfeld continues to play clean with 2 TDs to 0 INTs, bringing his season split to 7-1 and Jordan Howard again dominated.  All in all, 4-0 start to the Hoosiers.

Iowa – A – Level of competition wasn’t great, but man it is hard to overlook the results.  C.J. Bethard started 15/15 and ended the game 18/21 for 278 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs.  The running game was strong spearheaded by Jordan Canzeri’s 115 and 4 touchdown day.  The defense gave up more yards that you would expect, but had two pick sixes and held UNT to just 16 points.  Lots of confidence gained from the blowout heading into a difficult league opener in Madison.

Maryland – F – Yeah they lost 45-6 and gave up 601 yards.  They also turned the ball over 6 times.  Pathetic game.

Michigan State – C+ – Anyone else get the feeling MSU is just ready for league play?  We know how good this team can be (see Oregon) so I think these flat games have been more about disinterest than MSU not living up to the hype.  They allowed Central to hang around until a 13-0 fourth quarter let MSU pull away.  CMU out gained and had more TOP than the Big Ten team.  Hmm.

Minnesota – D – Better to be lucky than good.  Down 4 Minnesota was bailed out by refs and luck.  The lucky part has to do with a Bobcat defender dropping a sure interception.  Later on the drive a blatant holding call was missed that sprung a hole for the tailback.  On the run he stiff armed the defender by grabbing his facemask and dragging him.  So much for player safety.  Up 3 after the drive, UM gives up a 60 yard kick return to give Ohio some hope.  On a 50 yard field goal try UM ices the kicker by calling a timeout right as Ohio snapped it.  The Ohio kicker lets off a practice kick like every other player does yet he his flagged for delay of game, forcing Solich to call a Hail Mary.  Joke ending and another flat effort by the Gophers.  They do not look like the real deal right now.  Maybe they step up to the competition in Evanston this weekend but I’m not too confident despite the 3-1 start since all three wins have been by a field goal.

Nebraska – C – You know you have some defensive issues when 610 yards and 36 points yields a one-posession game.  That’s what happened Saturday in Lincoln when Southern Miss stormed back with a 21 point fourth quarter.  Their final score came with 6:55 so the outcome was very much in doubt.  Tommy Armstrong Jr. continues to be a beast out there.  What a revelation he has been.

Northwestern – B – I know some are pointing to this game as a, “Seeeeeeeeee, they’re not that good!” hot take.  I disagree.  Ball State isn’t a bad team and NU was a few plays away from blowing this thing open.  For instance up 21-10, the ‘Cats had a long drive stall and settle for a chip shot field goal.  28-10 looks a lot different than 24-10.  Also, how can you ignore 546 yards of offense?  Yes, the Cardinals scored 9 unanswered to make it tight, but I’m not pointing to this game as a reason to bail on Northwestern.  I’m neither on or off the NU bandwagon, I’m just waiting to see them hit league play but the Duke and Stanford wins are getting more impressive each week.

Ohio State – A- – There we go, that’s more like it.  511 yards of offense, Cardale was much improved, Zeke ran like a beast and they pulled away for a 26 point win.  Two turnovers, 12 penalties and a few defensive lapses giveaway to the minus but those can all be cleaned up.  Nice game.

Penn State – B- – What a strange game this was.  PSU had some nice drives end with field goals to get up 13-7 before SDSU took a lead.  Back-to-back touchdowns to end the first half seemed to put PSU in command at 27-14.  Yet, the Aztecs refused to go away, cutting the margin to 27-21.  A 10-0 run in the fourth and improved defensive play put this one away.  Offensively it was a mixed bag as Hackenberg looked good but the rushing attack was held to just 72 yards on 34 carries (2.1 average).  Saquon Barkley had a nice day toting the rock but injury ended his day and none of the other backs really stepped up.

Purdue – D – Let’s start with the positive: David Blough.  The quarterback made his first career start and played well, with a stat line of: 29/39, 340 yards, 8.7avg, 2 TD, 1 INT, 76.3 QBR.  Not bad at all.  Now the problem, 539 yards of offense by Bowling Green, 39 first downs, 11/16 on third, 9 penalties, the turnover.  Purdue’s margin of error is so incredibly slim that they cannot hope to win when they can’t get off the field, don’t value the rock and give up nearly a hundred yards in penalties.  The final may have only been 35-28, but it felt like BGSU dominated much more than the score reflects.

Rutgers – B – Not a terrible game as they held Kansas to just 14 points and racked up 513 yards to win by 13.  Problem is, it was Kansas and RU gave up 342 yards and had three turnovers.  The fact they were playing the worst power-5 team let them win despite the miscues.  Need to clean that up if they have any prayer next week against Michigan State.

Wisconsin – A – A shutout is a shutout and UW now has two this season as the defense has been lights out.  I like how the running game finally got going against Hawai’i.  Paul Chryst and his staff were smart to use this tune up game as, well, a tune up to get that part of the offense going.  Solid effort.

Game of the Week – The Minnesota game’s horrid officiating pissed me off too much to award it so I will go with Michigan’s game.  The defense was flying all over the place and there were some spectacular plays, highlighted by Amara Darboh’s circus catch.

Why Did I Watch This? Award – WVU was up 21-0 after a quarter.  Anyone who stuck with the Maryland game, hats off to ya, you have a stronger stomach than I do.

Gambling Report Card

  • Illinois vs Middle Tennessee, Points (UI -4), Over (62)

Well crap, we get a split.  MT lost by just two points but the teams combined for just 52 points.  I blame Illinois’s defense.  They were supposed to get gashed.

  • Indiana at Wake Forest, IU (-3), Over (54.5)

Thank you, thank you, thank you Wake Forest!  Their 14 points to end the game got us to 55 points yet allowed the Hoosiers to still win by seven, giving us a double-dip by the slimmest of margins.

  • Iowa vs North Texas, Points (UI -25), Under (54)

Yikes, this one was a face plant.  Not only did Iowa clear the over themselves with 62 points but they won by 46.  I really thought Kirk would play it cool against a friend.  Guess not.

  • Maryland at West Virginia, WVU (-17), Over (57)

Thanks Maryland, you worthless Terps.  WVU scores 45 points but we can’t clear the over because UM puts up just six.  What a joke.  Settle for the split.

  • Michigan vs BYU, Points (UM -7), Over (44.5)

I was sort of expecting a 28-24 game, instead Michigan dropped the hammer and won 31-0.  Two face plants in one week, oh boy.  Going to need a strong second half with these games.

  • Michigan State vs Central Michigan, MSU (-26), Over (54)

Whelp, that’s not going to help matters.  My in the bank bet of last year (MSU and Over) is currently 0-4 this year when betting it in the two Sparty games against directional Michigan schools.  Might need to shelve that tactic for a while.

  • Minnesota vs Ohio, Under (47.5), Points (UM -10, degenerate bet)

Minnesota’s late (and garbage) touchdown cleared the over Ohio still only lost by ten meaning casual gamblers take a loss while degenerates earned a split.

  • Nebraska vs Southern Miss, Points (NU -21.5)

Well it may have required a 21 point run in the fourth but Southern Miss helps us reclaim some dignity during a rough week at the sports book.

  • Northwestern vs Ball State, Under (49)

The spread was nearly 20 points and I had no idea what to make of that, so glad I stayed away but thankfully these two combined for just 43 points and we keep scratching back.

  • Ohio State vs Western Michigan, Points (OSU -32.5), Under (61)

This bet worked last week and comes through again as the Buckeyes won by a healthy 24 points but the two combined for just 50 points.  Until OSU gets their offensive issues 100% sorted out, I just don’t think they can cover some of these massive spreads.  They are still winning handily, but winning by 33+ is always a reach.

  • Penn State vs SDSU, PSU (-15), Over (39.5)

Seriously, what a dumb over – you seldom see one that low.  Penn State also won by sixteen, giving us another double-up!

  • Purdue vs Bowling Green, BGSU (-4.5), Over (75)

Well a split because the Falcons covered but 75 was not reached.  I thought Bowling Green was poised to drop 40 or even 50 in this game.  They got 35 and the two combined for 63.  Guess I have to blame Purdue’s defense for not being as terrible as I guessed.

  • Rutgers vs Kansas, RU (-14.5)

Damn, damn, double damn – when two teams this crappy square off, stay away, Josh!  I always trick myself in assuming Kansas will be butchered.

  • Wisconsin vs Hawai’i, Points (UW -24.5), Under (50.5)

Settle for a split as Wisconsin won by 28 but the final was 28-0.  Despite an ugly week in a few of these games, we actually ended with one more winning bet than losing bet so I’ll take it.

Week Record: 13-12-0

Season Record: 50-37-0

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