Illinois at North Carolina
UNC -9, Over / Under 63.5
Tough one to start. UNC was held to just 16 points and had a rash of turnovers in their opener and then took it to an FCS club to be 1-1. Illinois has looked great albeit against Kent State and FCS Western Illinois. I would advice staying away from this game but that doesn’t make for a good gambling guide. I think this has the potential to be a high scoring game like 35-28 which is still under that healthy total. As for the spread, Illinois has looked good, I think they can hang around. I’ll take the points.
Indiana vs Western Kentucky
IU -2, O/U 71.5
First that over, wow what a total. I was looking at the four games we have with these two. WKU’s totals have been 26 and 79. Indiana’s has been 95 and 58. Looking at the two games that were under 71.5 and you see two defensive teams. Vandy (who WKU beat 14-12) kept Georgia in check. FIU (who Indiana beat 36-22) kept UCF in check. As insane as that point total is, I believe they can surpass it. I’ll take IU winning a barn burner 45-35 for a potential double-dip.
Iowa vs Pitt
UI -5.5, O/U 46.5
Iowa has scored 31 points each game and their defense has been strong. Pitt meanwhile is still working out the kinks on offense. I think Iowa wins by a touchdown but I’m not sure what to do about the over/under. If Iowa puts up 31 again, that over is in serious jeopardy. Think I’ll hold onto my money since Pitt’s offensive output is so murky right now and stay away from the total bet.
Maryland vs USF
UM -7.5, O/U 51
Terps gave up 21 to an FCS club and 48 to Bowling Green. USF dropped 51 on an FCS team and despite only 14 points, the Bulls offense had some flashes at Florida State. I think that over is toast. I’ll take the points, too. A Bulls upset wouldn’t surprise me.
Michigan vs UNLV
UM -34, O/U 49
Michigan might not even score 34 points AND the Rebs lost to top-10 UCLA by 34 even a week ago so I’ll gladly take those points. The UCLA total by the way? 37. Points and under. Michigan will win handily, but it will be closer to something like 28-3.
Michigan State vs Air Force
MSU -25, O/U 55
My BC/WC/P post on MSU has been uncannily close through two weeks. I wrote that MSU would win this 31-17 in August and I stand by that. Air Force is always well coached and their option attack is a pest when you only have a week to prepare. Even if MSU scores a TD more than that or holds Air Force to a TD less, that still doesn’t cover that lofty spread OR the over so we have some flexibility. In a rare gambit I’ll take both points and under against the Spartans.
Minnesota vs Kent State
UM -24.5, O/U 46
Illinois beat Kent 52-3. A repeat of this in TCF Bank feels likely. Gimme the Gophers and that over.
Nebraska at Miami
UM -3, O/U 58
Miami’s offense has put up 45 and 44 points. NU’s defense gave up 27 points even before the Hail Mary against a good BYU team. Miami hasn’t faced an offense as good as the Huskers, either. This has all the trappings of a high scoring game. A smart gambler, even a degenerate, is going to avoid that spread like the plague. Miami has played FAU and Bethune-Cookman and NU hasn’t had a road game yet. Zero clue who wins this game.
Northwestern at Duke
Duke -3.5, O/U 48
We all know the NU defense is robust but Duke has allowed just seven points all season. Between these two teams…13 points allowed in sixteen quarters of football. I don’t see how in the world they combine for nearly 50 points. Love the under. In my BC/WC/P I had, get this, NU going winless in the Big Ten but winning this game by 10. Considering how the Cats have crushed my expectations through two games, I will gladly take the points.
Ohio State vs Northern Illinois
OSU -34.5, O/U 67
I have the same feeling I did last week and that is OSU scores a lot of points but that defense is so good that there is no way to hit the over. The problem is that OSU is still working on their offensive kinks so to cover they need to win somewhere in the neighborhood of 35-0 to 42-7. If NIU puts up 10 points, I’m not sure they can cover. As we saw with South Alabama scoring late an Nebraska, when the subs are in, anything can happen. I’ll take the points and the under – even though OSU is going to crush ’em.
Penn State vs Rutgers
PSU -9, O/U 46
Rutgers is a mess and enters without their coach or best offensive weapon. It won’t be pretty, since PSU has been ugly at times this year, but I think they win this in the neighborhood of 27-10. Lions and the under, please.
Purdue vs Virginia Tech
VT -7, O/U 48.5
Gambling on Purdue is a risky proposition and Tech is wildly inconsistent so putting them together is a gambler’s nightmare. Tech should be able to clear that spread though, even without their starting quarterback. I’m leaning under since Purdue has scored 69 points total this season against Marshall (1-1) and an FCS club. Against their first real defense of the year, watch them struggle to get to 21. How does the score 28-17 strike you? Take the under when Bud Foster is involved.
Wisconsin vs Troy
UW -34.5, O/U 58
Troy lost at NC State 49-21. I would argue that Wisconsin’s offense is at least 3 points better than NC State’s. I would also argue Wisconsin’s defense is at least 7 points better than NC State’s. If it plays out like that we get a final of 52-14. That magically covers the spread and splashes the over. It was a winning combo last week for the Badgers!
Lightning Round:
Illinois/North Carolina – Points, Under
Indiana/Western Kentucky – IU, Over
Iowa/Pitt – UI
Maryland/USF – Points, Over
Michigan/UNLV – Points, Under
Michigan State/Air Force – Points, Under
Minnesota/Kent State – UM, Over
Nebraska/Miami – Over
Northwestern/Duke – Points, Under
Ohio State/Northern Illinois – Points, Under
Penn State/Rutgers – PSU, Under
Purdue/Virginia Tech – VT, Under
Wisconsin/Troy – UW, Over
Big Ten and Counting 