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Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – Michigan State

Oh what might have been for Michigan State the last two seasons.  In 2013 they went 13-1 but a measly four point loss to Notre Dame kept them from playing (possibly) for the BCS title.  Of course if we had a tournament like any logical sport, they would have been in the dance.  In 2014 they would go 11-2 with losses at Oregon and against Ohio State…the two teams who played for a national title.  Of course if the tournament we now had was larger than just 4 teams like any logical sport, they would have been in the dance.  So from an outsiders perspective, just how did Michigan State get so good so quickly?

Well the easy answer is they made a home run hire with Mark Dantonio who had a fantastic staff that included defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi.  That’s a little bit of revisionist history though.  Dantonio was okay at Cincinnati but not great going just 18-17 (11-11) at his first head coaching gig.  No, Dantonio was hired because MSU hedged their bets that the outstanding defensive coordinator at Ohio State and former Michigan State assistant would correct a defense that had become awful under John L. Smith, be faithful to the program since MSU had not had a coach last longer than 4 years since George Perles’ run from 1983-1994 and would relish coaching in the league.  It was a smart gamble that became a great hire, but not a home run at the time.

Things started with a bang in 2007 with 7 wins and a bowl appearance that allowed for extra practice for the new staff.  They improved to 9 wins the following year.  A bitterly disappointing 6-7 campaign in 2009 worked to their advantage as they stuck with some key players and improved as a team to explode to a 11-2 (7-1) 2010.  Another 11 wins in 2011.  Then the cycle happened.  With important personnel from the 2010-2011 seasons gone a little setback in 2012 with just 7 wins but the formula was in place.  Key cogs of the next run got valuable experience that year and roared back with the mighty 2013 and 2014 seasons.  What is scary is a ton of those players decided to give it one last try to play for a national title and are suiting up in the green and white again in 2015.  Frightening thought indeed.

With All American center Jack Allen, all Big Ten tackle Jack Conklin and starters at the other tackle and one of the guard positions back, the offensive line is one of the best in the league, possibly the nation.  Connor Cook is also back at quarterback and looking to end his career in style.  He has the talent to do so.  The worry of course is the skill positions.  All the wide receivers of note and running back Jeremy Langford are gone.  I concede this could cost them early in the season but based on the recruiting with the program’s success I am confident that by the end of September this offense will be clicking along, just like last year when they finished 7th in the nation in scoring.

Defense is a nightmare for the rest of the league.  Seven starters are back including all American Trae Waynes at corner back and all Big Ten Shilique Calhoun on the line.  The injury to Ed Davis is a tough pill to swallow but the silver lining is he got hurt with plenty of practice time left to sort out his replacement at linebacker.  All in all, the 22nd best defense a year ago should be another rock solid unit.  I know losing Pat Narduzzi is big but Dantonio is a defensive guru in his own right.  Per interviews a lot of the players felt the loss of Narduzzi was bigger as a person than a play-caller.  Translation, Narduzzi was great at pumping them up and getting them to play but when actual calls were made, the kids knew what they were doing and that aspect of Narduzzi’s job was replaceable.

One interesting side note to bring up is Mike Sadler’s graduation.  This kid was a hell of a punter.  I know it is just a punter but what a tool to have to flip the field or pin the opposition.  It made fourth down calls easier for the staff to have such a reliable punter.  If his replacement is shaky or gets some blocked, you never know, could cost them in a tight game.

2015 Schedule

At Western Michigan

  • Best Case – Broncos “Rowed The Boat” to 8 wins last year.  Not to shabby but they came up short against their power league foes a year ago in Purdue and Virginia Tech.  Neither of which are on the same level as State.  1-0
  • Worst Case – “Connor Cook rolls out, takes a huge hit and…oh my god…he’s clutching his knee.”  1-0
  • P – W, 49-10, 1-0

Oregon

  • BC – MSU played well for stretches against the Ducks last year but eventually ran out of gas.  When given a second crack at an uptempo explosive team in the bowl against Baylor, MSU re-calibrated their attack and won.  They should be confident.  2-0
  • WC – New faces at the skill positions takes some time to click and the Ducks steal this road game.  1-1
  • P – I think skill position players are easier to refill than the line and quarterback.  Losing Hesiman winner Marcus Mariotta combined with the game being in Spartan Stadium has me leaning MSU’s way.  W, 42-38, 2-0

Air Force

  • BC – Undersized Air Force is no match for the Big Ten’s elite.  3-0
  • WC – AF won 10 games a season ago and is one of those programs that knows who they are and their limitations and so goes in a different direction to avoid their lacking recruiting opportunities.  As a result they are a really pesky bunch.  I wouldn’t want to play them but MSU still slips past.  2-1
  • P – Never fun to play these triple-option teams but MSU should enjoy a healthy advantage in the trenches when they have the ball.  I think they can use ball control, one of Georgia Tech, Navy and Air Force’s strengths against them.  W, 31-17, 3-0

Central Michigan

  • BC – Chips lost to Kansas last year, Kansas!  4-0
  • WC – In all fairness to CMU, they also made a bowl game and beat Purdue.  3-1
  • P – W, 42-10, 4-0

Purdue

  • BC – Surprisingly this was only 14 point game a year ago.  MSU doesn’t let them hang around and potentially spoil a magical season.  5-0
  • WC – Even a vastly improved Purdue team faces long odds to take down the Spartans in East Lansing.  4-1
  • P – Top to bottom a better roster, solid coaching and they get to play at home.  Not saying it is a cakewalk, but it is a soft way to start the league campaign.  W, 45-21, 5-0 (1-0)

At Rutgers

  • BC – MSU breezed through a 45-3 pasting of RU a season ago.  6-0
  • WC – Rutgers’ starting qb graduated so they may take a tiny step back.  5-1
  • P – Barring an insane amount of injuries over the first five weeks, I really see no way for the Scarlet Knights to spoil MSU’s season.  W, 52-7, 6-0 (2-0)

At Michigan

  • BC – Michigan is a joke and the Spartans empty out the Big House midway through the third quarter in a blowout.  7-0
  • WC – MSU won this by 24 points last year.  I don’t see a 24 point swing based solely on Jim Harbaugh wearing a headset now.  6-1
  • P – Michigan’s defense is their strength but by the midway point and so many soft opponents, I fully expect MSU to be firing on all cylinders offensively and blow past Michigan again.  W, 42-21, 7-0 (3-0)

Indiana

  • BC – They scored 56 a year ago.  Maybe they can hit 60+.  8-0
  • WC – It is dumb to say any sporting event with 100% certainty but I’m like 99.98% sure MSU wins this going away.  7-1
  • P – David, meet Goliath.  Goliath meet STOMP.  W, 42-13, 8-0 (4-0)

At Nebraska

  • BC – This was a tight one by MSU’s standards last year winning by just 5.  It is their first daunting road trip but the talent gap feels pretty big to me.  9-0
  • WC – Nebraska’s talent isn’t up to MSU’s and they have a new coach who, based on his track at Oregon State, will be installing a very different style of play.  That takes time, a lot longer than nine or ten games in my opinion.  I think Huskers take a step back and MSU enjoys a key road victory.  8-1
  • P – Wow, I have MSU scoring 42 points a lot this year and giving up 21 a fair amount.  I must like the symmetry of that score.  W, 42-21, 9-0 (5-0)

Maryland

  • BC – I fully expect the Terps to be a massive train wreck this year.  10-0
  • WC – It is crazy to say but even in a “worst case” season, I don’t see how MSU drops any of these games.  9-1
  • P – I don’t predict it often since it is so hard to attain but I have a goose egg in this one.  W, 42-0, 10-0 (6-0)

At Ohio State

  • BC – Well, it is the million dollar question game.  Sort of a winner take all scenario if these teams live up to their hype.  11-0
  • WC – Columbus is never, ever, ever, never, ever, and so on fun to play at.  9-2
  • P – Okay, moment of truth.  Do I take the smart pick of Urban Meyer, defending champ, home field in the Shoe of all places or pick an upset.  I think the biggest problem with the game is the date.  OSU was like a snowball picking up steam and growing larger last year.  Their loss and tight PSU game were both earlier in the season.  I hate doing this since I legitimately love this Michigan State team but I see them coming up just short.  They still have a great shot at the tournament since I think the ACC will be left out and the Pac 12 winner may have several losses to their name.  Sadly though…L, 27-24 (last second field goal), 10-1 (6-1)

Penn State

  • BC – Thanks to Oregon running the table and OSU’s season the win last week puts Michigan State and #1 in the nation.  12-0
  • WC – Riding the league’s best defense and an improved offense Penn State turns out to spoil both OSU and MSU’s seasons.  9-3
  • P – As much as I love Penn State, I think much of my MSU-OSU thinking applies here.  MSU will be a much better team game 12 than game 1.  They are also at home.  It will be an epic battle but MSU prevails to keep their tournament hope alive.  W, 36-34, OT, 11-1 (7-1)

Final Notes

Having trips to Ohio State and Nebraska as well as Penn State and Oregon make this schedule look much harder than it actually is.  Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland and Indiana are almost certain locks.  In non-con, Air Force, CMU and WMU are also close to being locks.  That is 7 wins right there.  They are better than Michigan and if they can hold home serve in the other ones, you see 10 wins easy.  The big question is can they survive Lincoln and get over the Buckeye hump.

As for the tournament, well undefeated it is a no-brainer.  I think if they lose to Oregon but win out, it is also a no-brainer.  After all, OSU dropped an early game to Virginia Tech and made it all the way back.  The question on every one’s mind is what if they lose the OSU game.  Here’s how they make the tournament:

  • Ohio State goes undefeated so the Bucks make the dance and the loss doesn’t hurt MSU in the polls very much in a tight game.  A blowout ends any chance for MSU.
  • The Pac 12 champ gets banged up.  Ideally, either Oregon wins the league but loses two league games so they would be at best 10-3 with a loss to MSU.  The other option is a Pac 12 south team makes it from that tough division with several losses and then upsets either Oregon or Stanford to get to 10-3 (6-3).  The unlikeliest scenario is the Pac 12 is a clustef$&# and both division champs enter well outside the top 4 before the game is even played.
  • The ACC experiences a similar Pac 12 season with a diminished FSU team suffering some losses along the way.  Clemson and Georgia Tech are both good, but Tech’s season could be spoiled by a non acc team in Georgia and Clemson drops a tough road trip to Miami, South Carolina or the Notre Dame game
  • Notre Dame spoils someone’s season but doesn’t win enough to pass MSU – ideally one of the ACC heavyweights
  • SEC has a clear cut champ so no chance of them getting a second team in.  Ideally a western team dominates and then the East is sloppy again.
  • Big 12 gets either TCU or Baylor in but not both…which seems likely since they have to play each other and Baylor isn’t upset immune (see WVU game a year ago).
  • No upstart from a small league (sorry Boise, Memphis and UCF).

In the end the final poll would be like this:

  1. Ohio State
  2. SEC Champ (Western team with a similar 12-1 mark like Alabama last year)
  3. Big 12 Champ
  4. Michigan State
  5. ACC Champ
  6. Pac 12 Champ

It is doable, but obviously the smartest thing would be for MSU to find a way to slay the dragon and take down those nasty nuts.  Go Green!  Go White!

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