Since the magical Orange Bowl in 2009 it has been a strange run in Iowa City. In 2010 the Hawks were sitting pretty at 7-2 and then lost the final three before an upset bowl win. In 2011 a 5-2 start was spoiled by a 2-3 finish and a bowl loss. 2012 saw terrible quarter back play and injuries to the OL yield six straight losses to end 4-8 but they were never as bad as the record indicated. In 2013 the opposite, a surprising 8 win season and narrow bowl loss had people excited but in retrospect that was never a good team but merely a product of a soft schedule. 2014 would continue this trend. A 5-1 start (the lone loss was of course to Iowa State who Kirk Ferentz has a losing record to) spiraled into a 2-4 finish and a dismantling at the hands of Tennessee in the bowl to go 7-6. Since the BCS win, Iowa is now 34-30 and 19-21 in league games under the long tenured coach.
That puts Iowa in a bind. On one hand, he is right up there with Hayden Fry as the second best coach in program history (Forest Evashevski has both beat with a national title and 3 league titles) and other than the 2012 fiasco, he is still making bowls. On the other side of the debate is the diminishing returns. He has a hefty buyout to factor in but considering there are fewer tickets purchased coming into this season it could reach a point where it suddenly becomes costly to keep him.
Compounding the matters is the politics at the university. Iowa does not currently have a president. Bad contracts and controversy have put athletic director Gary Barta in the cross-hairs too. Many fans, self included, don’t see the point of canning Kirk just to let Barta make another awful hire. Of course as is the case in college football a successful season will cure all and if there is one constant with Ferentz’s tenure it is when you expect nothing he seems to shine.
So if this could be a magical season for Iowa when the deck seems stacked, there must be some hidden talent, no? Well, maybe. The defense was a serviceable 51st in scoring last year and returns Drew Ott on the line as well as an experienced secondary. Linebacker play was an issue all season as they were young and got torched several times. Worse, their bowl performance was one of the biggest lowlights of the year so you can’t hang your hat on them progressing.
Offensively, a lot of Iowa fans believe that running back will be addition by subtraction. The faithful to a fault Ferentz started Mark Weisman the last few years despite being a fullback by trade. Yes his power was nice inside the 5 but the rest of the time he touched the ball made zero sense. LeShun Daniels and Jordan Canzeri both have more speed and big play potential than the old mule Weisman. The offensive line starters are a solid bunch but the unit as a whole is thin. Any injury could devastate the offensive attack. One of the biggest surprises might be the passing game. Despite quarterback controversy and a unit that fans don’t love, Iowa did finish 56th in the nation at yards per game. Tevaun Smith, Matt VandeBerg and Jacob Hilliyer are all upperclassmen with plenty of snaps under their belt. If C.J. Beathard turns out to be a competent starter, something both he and Jake Ruddock (transferred to Michigan) struggled with a year ago, then Iowa’s offense could be a formidable group.
2015 Schedule
Illinois State
- Best Case – Ferentz has only lost two openers in his career, 2000 – his second season and 2013. He has also never lost to an FCS club. 1-0
- Worst Case – ISU were FCS runner ups a year ago and have a great mobile QB in Tre Roberson. If that name sounds familiar it should, he used to be at Indiana before injuries and loss of playing team led him to transfer. He was outstanding a year ago in leading his new team deep in the tournament. 0-1
- Prediction – An upset is very, very tempting to take but the track record of Ferentz in openers and against FCS teams has me thinking Iowa wins ugly. W, 31-28, 1-0
At Iowa State
- BC – The Cyclone defense was more like a light breeze than a fierce storm as they were dreadful en route to ISU’s dismal 2-10 (0-9) season. 2-0
- WC – One of Iowa State’s wins last year? You guessed it. 0-2
- P – Iowa State has gone young, very young, the last few years as a way of trying to take their lumps and build the program. On paper though, Hawks should win. Watch them get upset though. W, 35-28, 2-0
Pittsburgh
- BC – After a brutal first half, Iowa locked down defensively to come from behind on the road a year ago. 3-0
- WC – Two of the best players from that D Line that suffocated Pitt’s rushing game last season are gone. Uh oh. 0-3
- P – An interesting aside, Pitt opens at home then goes on the road for three straight and five of six. Kinda nice to have a block of home games at the end if you are chasing a conference title. Unfortunately, as much as I love Pat Narduzzi, I think the rebuild is a tad much to take advantage of the interesting scheduling quirk. W, 24-21, 3-0
North Texas
- BC – The Mean Green were a mess last year going just 4-8 with one of their wins against an FCS team. Worse, they mustered a paltry two league wins in C-USA. 4-0
- WC – Don’t see anyway for Iowa to gag this one away. 1-3
- P – W, 38-14, 4-0
At Wisconsin
- BC – This was a two point game a season ago and both coach and Melvin Gordon are gone. Hmm, 5-0
- WC – Back to reality. 1-4
- P – I’ve said it for other team’s previews that when team are similar then use roster, coaching and home field to make your choice. I’d say these two teams are similar. Questions at qb. Good OL but not particularly deep but that’s about where they end. UW had a better defense and returns the lion’s share of it. Plus it is in Maddy. L, 28-20, 4-1 (0-1)
Illinois
- BC – Iowa turned in a defensive gem against this crew in 2013. The soft schedule leaves them outside the top 25 until stretching the start to the halfway mark and getting in the polls at 18. 6-0
- WC – Illinois offense is vastly improved with Wes Lunt healthy and Iowa’s quarterback situation continues to be a mess. 1-5
- P – I like the returning secondary for Iowa putting up a repeat performance and Illinois simply struggles to move the ball on this team. W, 21-17, 5-1 (1-1)
At Northwestern
- BC – Iowa’s best game a season ago was a 48-7 stomping of the Wildcats. 7-0
- WC – Inconsistent d, terrible offense and injuries pile up in a nightmare 2015. 1-6
- P – I think Northwestern is going to be an absolute mess this year. They still don’t have the quarterback situation ironed out and they were bad a year ago so it isn’t just one position up in the air. W, 28-17, 6-1 (2-1)
Maryland
- BC – Hey, another team with a list of questions about them a mile a long. The softness of the schedule gets Iowa into 13th despite a sterling record. 8-0
- WC – The lack of athleticism Iowa had a year ago shined at various points last year. This was one of those games. 1-7
- P – Roster – Iowa, barely. Coaching – Iowa, barely. Home field – Iowa. W, 27-21, 7-1 (3-1)
At Indiana
- BC – Indiana is a sink or swim team based on their quarterback. Last year against Iowa he got hurt and the team struggled the rest of the way. Not wise to pick teams that thin this far into the year. 9-0
- WC – IU finally enjoys a breakthrough season that people have been talking about for about a decade. 1-8
- P – Iowa’s second best game a year ago was dropping 45 on the Hoosiers. They gave up 29 but the bulk of that was because of Tevin Coleman who is thankfully (from the rest of the league’s perspective) gone. W, 31-24, 8-1 (4-1)
Minnesota
- BC – Stop the presses, Iowa is undefeated, looking good for Indy and Ferentz has just signed a contract through 2045. 10-0
- WC – Gopher defense turns out to be the real deal and Iowa is just going through the motions in a repeat of last year’s 51-14 shelling. 1-9
- P – As much as I dislike Minnesota’s offense on paper, I love their defense. Gopher’s steal a road victory in a physical old-school style game. L, 13-10, 8-2 (4-2)
Purdue
- BC – Iowa’s defense dominated this one, holding Purdue to just 156 yards. Indianapolis here they come! 11-0
- WC – I think Iowa’s worst case is 2-10 since they wont get swept by PU, Indiana and Illinois as well as play Northwestern but the way I do these write ups is the other team’s best case corresponds with the opposition’s worst case thus on a technicality……1-10
- P – A good bounce back for Iowa on senior day. It may be a soft schedule but nine wins is still something for the faithful to enjoy. W, 28-14, 9-2 (5-2)
At Nebraska
- BC – Huskers turn out to be the biggest fools ever and completely implode after firing the reliable Pelini and his annual nine to ten wins. Hawks face either OSU or MSU with a #7 ranking and massive underdogs due to the joke of a schedule. 12-0
- WC – Technically 2-10 is where I see the worst case but again, this write up is breaking all the rules. 1-11
- P – Huskers seem to have a smidge more talent and host the game. Huskers continue winning this “rivalry” that no fan gives two shits about. L, 28-24, 9-3 (5-3)
Final Notes
Obviously a huge swing for Iowa from 2-10 to 12-0. Additionally, I may have “predicted” nine wins but i don’t see them getting there. I write as if the coaching is competent and the talent is reasonable. This is not the case. Greg Davis is the worst offensive coordinator in the league and you know Iowa will give up some onside kick at some point. I think a more realistic tally is 7-5 but the way these articles are written I go game by game and seldom take flyers in August. Iowa is technically better than Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana and Purdue…but what is the likelihood of them sweeping? Same with the ISU and Pitt games. This team is consistently inconsistent and will blow one or two of these “should wins.” So, yeah, this was a pointless preview. Sorry everyone!
Big Ten and Counting 