The Wolverines welcome a new coach for 2015 but unlike Wisconsin which had the amusement of Andersen leaving or Nebraska with the massive gamble of dumping Pelini, UM needed to make a move. The drama of the 2014 off season can actually be traced to the final moments of the Lloyd Carr administration. When he was squeezed out Michigan decided to go with some new-look football and hired Rich Rodriguez. Unfortunately he rubbed the base (aka boosters) wrong and there was no patience for his overhaul. Out goes RR and the first task was to find a Michigan man. Enter Brady Hoke.
Hoke was a nice guy and motivated undermanned Ball State and SDSU to success but just was not cut out for the big stage. He’s the kind of guy you want on your staff or leading a smaller school and as stated, he is the type of person you root for so hopefully he has a post Michigan chapter to his career. Hoke started with a bang thanks to Rich Rod’s players but the success was short lived and a new offensive coordinator flat lined last year as Michigan could never score reliably.
Last year started out well enough but the crushing of Appalachian State was fools gold. They were shutout by Notre Dame and looked flat against woeful Miami (OH) to start 2-1. Three straight losses (Utah, Minnesota and Rutgers) were made worse by how non-competitive Michigan looked, especially on offense. A 3-1 stretch boasted wins over similarly challenged clubs in PSU, Indiana and Northwestern got them to 5-5 and a chance to salvage the year. A home loss to Maryland followed by a tepid game in Columbus ran the mark to 5-7 and made cleaning house that much easier.
So we all know who was hired. There isn’t much to say about Jim Harbaugh other than he made a winner out of USD and Stanford before resurrecting the 49ers. He is a builder, no doubt, but he has yet to be a sustainer. From UM’s perspective this doesn’t matter. A worst case is he corrects the heading, puts in a fantastic foundation and leaves in four years with a great person on staff like he did with Stanford and David Shaw. The best case is, honestly at Harbaugh’s age, they have someone for the next 20 years and relive the magic of Bo. My guess is it will be closer to the former, but you never know.
As for the team he inherits it is an interesting one. The defense was top 30 last year and returns 8 starters. This unit should be the strength of the team again. I’m less impressed with the offense. Devin Funchess, the best player, is in the NFL and the best qb on roster, Devin Gardner, graduated. Shane Morris was a disaster a season ago and the offensive line was simply not reliable. I have no doubt that Harbaugh will improve this side of the ball and will eventually find a qb, but I think asking to do so in year one, especially with the schedule they have is a tall order.
2015 Schedule
At Utah
- Best Case – Utes are a popular pick to spoil the South. I don’t see Michigan winning this difficult opener. 0-1
- Worst Case – A blowout. 0-1
- Prediction – Good team, nasty road environment, altitude and a new coach’s debut. Not a recipe for success. L, 34-14, 0-1
Oregon State
- BC – Is Michigan joining the Pac 12? Beavers were terrible a season ago defensively and their offense has some huge holes to fill. Oh, they also hired a dufus. 1-1
- WC – OSU is in contention for worst power-league team this season. You heard that, right Kansas? 1-1
- P – W, 28-17, 1-1
UNLV
- BC – After a long, long stretch of terrible football UNLV woke up from obscurity to make a bowl game in 2013. They followed that up with a 2-11 stinker last year. 2-1
- WC – Injuries costing long term damage to the season. 2-1
- P – W, 45-10, 2-1
BYU
- BC – Two Big Ten dates…is BYU joining the Big 10? Open that Salt Lake City market! I have the Cougars taking down Nebraska but I don’t see them sweeping the Big Ten. Tight win. 3-1
- WC – Cougs are a really well coached team thanks to Bronco Mendenhall and their quarterback is healthy, hopefully/finally. 2-2
- P – Not for the first or last time, Michigan’s steady defense helps them win a game they on paper should struggle in. W, 28-24, 3-1
At Maryland
- BC – Maryland is cracking in a lot of new faces on offense and had a much worse D than UM did a year ago. 4-1
- WC – If Michigan’s defense takes a step back and their offense never progresses, there is a chance UM does what Stanford did in Harbaugh’s debut season. Feel free to look it up. 2-3
- P – Two teams feel pretty even but in August you need to look at coaches, roster and home field advantage. Terps only have one of these three criteria. W, 28-21, 4-1 (1-0)
Northwestern
- BC – Don’t want to be a broken record but NU is yet another team with quarterback issues coming into this season. 5-1
- WC – This was a razor thin 10-9 game a year ago. Few plays go another way…2-4
- P – Per the Maryland write up, coaches, roster and home field. I’m not a big Fitz person. Michigan returns a lot of talent, especially on the D and this one is in Ann Arbor. W, 24-21, 5-1 (2-0)
Michigan State
- BC – This was only a 24 point game a year ago. 5-2
- WC – MSU is as good as the hype (they will be) and steamrolls their rival again. 2-5
- P – Michigan State returns a great qb, defense and OL. Yes skill positions are new but by this part of the season, their timing should be down and the Spartans should be incredible. L, 42-21, 5-2 (2-1)
At Minnesota
- BC – Wolverines bounce back from their first league defeat with an impressive road win to lock down a bowl. 6-2
- WC – Gophers have a shot at the best defense in the league. What happens if Michigan’s offense remains so-so? 2-6
- P – I like the team Kill has, especially on defense. I think they win this one thanks to some home cooking. L, 28-20, 5-3 (2-2)
Rutgers
- BC – Rutgers had a bit of an upset (well it was at the time) in winning this game last year. Michigan gets some revenge and improves their bowl standing. 7-2
- WC – RU won this game a season ago and, if they figure out their qb situation, should have a decent club again. 2-7
- P – Upset alert! Between all the physically tough games they have leading up to this one and concerns about the roster, I’m sort of hedging my bets with some injuries and some issues in year one of a new coach, etc. RU commits grand larceny with this road win. L, 28-17, 5-4 (2-3)
At Indiana
- BC – January bowl comes into play with another win and they crack the top 20 at #17. 8-2
- WC – An uninterested Michigan team runs into a Hoosier team that has finally enjoyed a breakthrough season. 2-8
- P – Too many good defensive players back to blow what was as 24 point victory last year. Wolverines clinch a bowl. W, 28-24, 6-4 (3-3)
At Penn State
- BC – Penn State repeats last year’s offensively challenged campaign while Michigan improves by leaps and bounds on that side of the ball. Hello potential division championship game. 9-2
- WC – I have PSU as the third best team in this division and probably the third best team overall in the league. Uh-oh. 2-9
- P – Love PSU’s defense, assume they will improve offensively and Happy Valley is never a cakewalk. L, 27-7, 6-5 (3-4)
Ohio State
- BC – Similar story to Utah and MSU. A close game shows how far this team has come, but they just aren’t quite there yet. 9-3
- WC – OSU enjoys a fluff game before Indy and a shot at defending their national title. 2-10
- P – Not an easy one-two punch to end the season but they still make a bowl. L, 38-13, 6-6 (3-5)
Final Notes
I’ll admit, I’m taking a flyer on the Rutgers game but even if you switch that one, it is a 7 win season. Maybe they steal the Minnesota game, fine. That’s 8 wins. But you can easily make the argument that they blow the BYU game. In theory, Oregon State should have Pac 12 talent on their roster…maybe they drop that one. The moral of the story is this schedule is brutal. I would hold it up against anyone else in the Big Ten it is that difficult. The non-conference boasts two Pac 12 clubs and a solid BYU program. Road trips to Minneapolis and Western PA won’t be fun. MSU and OSU within the division while they are both national title contenders. To me, Michigan has 8 or 9 win talent but that schedule and the uncertainty under center has me hedging my bets and saying they fail to make that 8 win mark. Still, a bowl means at least a month of extra practice for Harbaugh, an extra nationally televised game, an extra game in potentially Texas or Florida and a way to sell recruits on being a part of something building. Nothing wrong with that.
Big Ten and Counting 