Be careful what you wish for is a cliche that perfectly sums up Nebraska’s off season. After a 9-3 year they dumped Bo Pelini before the bowl. Pelini was 67-27 (39-17) and never won fewer than 9 games in Lincoln. He was 3-3 in bowl games (4-3 if you count his fill in turn in 2003) but there was a sense he had reached his peak. They would always be good just never great and never compete for national titles. It is a silly argument to make, one that has hurt Tennessee, Maryland and other programs but from a Nebraska perspective, you could see the rationale. He had struggled against ranked teams the last few years, including an 0-4 mark in 2014 and some of the losses were laughable blow outs. Bo’s difficult personality and defiant nature made the call even easier for Husker officials so off he goes.
While the firing was strange to many, self included, the hiring of Mike Riley of Oregon State is downright boggling. Riley is no spring chicken at 62 and based on his OSU success since 2010 being a shadow of what he did from 03-09 was on a bit of a hot seat in the Pacific Northwest. He inherits an interesting team that is coming off an equally interesting season. Things started well enough with a 5-0 start, including a win over Miami and pasting Illinois. They lost to MSU by just five before ripping off three straight wins (Northwestern, Rutgers and Purdue) to be 8-1 and control their own destiny. A debacle in Madison in which Melvin Gordon rushed for 408 yards and Wisconsin won 59-24 sank Nebraska’s odds of winning the division but the final nail was a home loss to Minnesota. A shaky performance against Iowa resulted in an overtime victory to conclude the season 9-3. They played well against USC but ultimately lost by 3 to provide the final 9-4 tally.
The biggest mystery for Nebraska is how a new staff will handle the returning talent. Quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. is the typical Nebraska mobile qb but Riley has always utilized a pro style passing attack. It seems doubtful Riley will change his successful scheme but it is equally doubtful that Armstrong has the arm or vision to be the passer Riley wants him to be. Worse, Ameer Abdullah is off to the NFL along with Kenny Bell. Even more troubling is how inexperienced the interior of the OL is. Yes the tackles are good, but the guard and center positions are a blank slate.
Defensively there are fewer holes but the blackshirts were only 60th a year ago. Considering Pelini is a highly regarded defensive mind either his reputation is a lie or the players didn’t perform. Guess we’ll find out this year, although any unit that has Nate Gerry on it can’t be all bad, right?
2015 Schedule
BYU
- Best Case – BYU had a few defensive issues of their own, giving up 30 points or more six times and only winning two of those games. Riley finds a way to take advantage. 1-0
- Worst Case – This team went 8-5 in an injury plagued season for Taysom Hill. 0-1
- Prediction – I think Bronco Mendenhall is one hell of a coach. Hill is healthy and Mitch Mathews is a underrated wideout. This team will play anyone, anywhere and does pretty well. Just ask Texas fans. L, 31-28, 0-1
South Alabama
- BC – This is a very young program to the FBS ranks but did make a bowl game last season. Still should be a cakewalk. 2-0
- WC – This team relied on 5 league wins in the Sun Belt to get them to that bowl. 1-1
- P – W, 42-13, 1-1
At Miami
- BC – The U went 6-7 a season ago and Al Golden is on the heat seat for a reason. 3-0
- WC – Nebraska’s OL just isn’t ready for a power league foe and they get exposed by Miami’s athleticism. 1-2
- P – Not sure what to make of this Miami team. They were 6-3 a season ago with no bad losses and gave Florida State everything they could handle but then the bottom fell out. They lost to Virginia and Pitt before South Carolina got them in the bowl game. From 6-3 to 6-7 in very little time was stunning. Brad Kaaya has shown some flashes though and all things being equal, I’m going to give the nod to the home team – barely. L, 38-35, 1-2
Southern Miss
- BC – USM went just 3-9 a year ago and 1-7 in their league. 4-0
- WC – By far the easiest non-con game for the Huskers. They won’t blow it. 2-2
- P – W, 49-10, 2-2
At Illinois
- BC – Huskers creamed Illinois last season. New coach? No problem! 5-0
- WC – Lunt makes the leap while OL and defensive issues continue to plague Nebraska. 2-3
- P – Despite the flux on the roster and coaching staff, too much talent for Big Red to stumble in this one. W, 35-21, 3-2 (1-0)
Wisconsin
- BC – Probably the team most glad to see Melvin Gordon in the NFL is Nebraska. Too bad Badgers still have some key pieces left on that line, Corey Clement who had flashes as a second string back and eight, yes eight defensive starters back from a team that locked NU down a season ago. 5-1
- WC – 409 yards? 2-4
- P – Andersen was only at UW for two seasons and whenever he tried to implement a system different than Alvarez / Beilema / Chryst (OC for both) had, it failed. See the Northwestern game for proof on that. Chryst stylistically is a return to what the Badgers do best and will not stray away from that. The added bonus is Andersen couldn’t really do much damage to the roster in those seasons so not only is it a return to Badger ball, but the pieces are still there. L, 35-17, 3-3 (1-1)
At Minnesota
- BC – Huskers bounce back from the first loss of 2015 with a clutch road performance. 6-1
- WC – UM’s defense is as outstanding as their potential is. Meanwhile the OL just gets eaten up. 2-5
- P – The issues Nebraska has is scary. We really have no way to predict if this offense will be boom or bust. If it bust, there is no guarantee the defense has the horses to bail them out. I’m going with more of a sure thing. L, 24-17, 3-4 (1-2)
Northwestern
- BC – NU (red) enjoyed a 21 point win over NU (purple) last season. 7-1
- WC – Northwestern’s defense turns out to be pretty good and their outstanding freshman rb from last year has a POY style season. 2-6
- P – Wildcats have as many issues as the Cornhuskers coming into this season, maybe more since they still don’t have a clear cut opening day quarterback. W, 31-17, 4-4 (2-2)
At Purdue
- BC – Nebraska keeps their division hopes alive and just needs UW to stumble. 8-1
- WC – Riley’s debut is officially a bust as the offense never comes around and the defense continues to be mediocre. 2-7
- P – Upset alert! I have PU going 6-6 to make a bowl game and this game is the reason why. They stun Nebraska late. L, 27-24, 4-5 (2-3)
Michigan State
- BC – I know this game was close a year ago, but I just don’t see how NU can pull this one off. 8-2
- WC – Would they, could they fire Riley after one year? 2-8
- P – 15 starters, including 8 from that outstanding defense are back for MSU. L, 42-21, 4-6 (2-4)
At Rutgers
- BC – The division race may be over but Husker’s match last year’s 9-win mark and can still make a really nice bowl if they finish strong. 9-2
- WC – Flood’s team was a mucker last year and continues to be a pesky team to play. The talent doesn’t say they should win but they get it done. 2-9
- P – Nebraska makes up for the horrible Purdue game with a much stronger performance and keeps a bowl in play. W, 31-21, 5-6 (3-4)
Iowa
- BC – Iowa turns in a 2-10 record and the staff gets blown up after Nebraska blows them out. 10-2
- WC – Hawks turn in a vintage ‘no one expected us to do crap’ season under Ferentz. NU athletic director Shawn Eichorst gets canned for dumping Bo and bringing about this nightmare season. 2-10
- P – The blogger giveth and he taketh away. After the lumps taken by BYU and Miami to star the season, Huskers finally start to gel by the end of the season and finish with back-to-back wins to slip into a bowl. Not great, but folks can be excited about the future. W, 28-24, 6-6 (4-4)
Final Notes
A swing of 2 to 6 to 10 wins for Nebraska demonstrates just how wide open this year will be for them. Questions about a new staff, new look OL and inconsistent defense are a lot to be answered even with a favorable schedule. That is not a luxury Nebraska has this year. BYU has the potential to be a good team and the Miami game is in South Beach. A crossover date with MSU is less than ideal and traveling to Minneapolis won’t be fun either. I applaud Nebraska for scheduling such a tough non-con but this is the one year where that could backfire as this team will need several weeks to gel and trying to go through the whole process while playing the Cougars and Caines is certainly not by design.
Big Ten and Counting 