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Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – Maryland

2015 found the Terps winning seven games and making a bowl.  Not a bad debut in a new league but you see some issues once you scratch the surface.  The running game was awful, the passing game subpar, scoring was poor and the defense wasn’t much better.  Then you break down the games it gets even uglier.  They opened 2-0 but beat an FCS team and a terrible South Florida club.  Lost to WVU before knocking off Syracuse and Indiana to jump out 4-1.  It went down hill from there.  Alternating losses and wins they were blown out by OSU, beat Iowa, crushed by Wisconsin, slipped by PSU in a 1-point game, dominated by MSU, squeaked by Michigan by a score and then lost to Rutgers.  They flopped spectacularly against Stanford in the bowl to go 7-6.

So the club isn’t that great last year then loses a lot of talent coming into this year.  Gone is QB C.J. Brown was a great playmaker and the leading rusher.  WR Stefon Diggs was one of the Big Ten’s best players is now getting paid for his work.  The odds of Maryland’s offense putting up even the meager numbers of last year seems doubtful without these two guys.  Worse there is no way the defense jumps from 89th to anything spectacular to make up for what could be one of the worst offenses in the league.

2015 Schedule

Richmond

  • Best Case – The Spiders lost to Virginia last year.  Enough said.  1-0
  • Worst Case – They did win nine games, but I don’t see any Big Ten club dropping a game to an FCS team this year.  1-0
  • Prediction – W, 42-14, 1-0

Bowling Green

  • BC – The Falcons are a good, not great MAC team, that was killed by Wisconsin a season ago.  2-0
  • WC – They made (and won) a bowl despite having a new coach and losing their quarterback the opening week.  Oh, they also beat Indiana.  1-1
  • P – It won’t be pretty but Maryland escapes thanks to my bias of having Big Ten athletes versus MAC level kids.  W, 28-24, 2-0

South Florida

  • BC – Bulls had one of the worst offenses in the entire nation a season ago as they went just 4-8.  3-0
  • WC – Maryland barely won this game a season ago and USF was surprisingly frisky, making a lot of teams work for a win.  1-2
  • P – I think the Bulls will be a better team, but I don’t love them to win this road game.  Maybe if the game was in Tampa I’d pick them.  W, 24-21, 3-0

At West Virginia

  • BC – WVU didn’t really beat anyone outside a stunning upset of Baylor a year ago, are they really that good?  Maybe Maryland stuns the league like Indiana did beating Mizzou last year.  4-0
  • WC – The Mountaineers were so close to having a magical season.  They suffered one possession losses to TCU, Texas, Kansas State and Texas A&M in the bowl.  They lost to Alabama by 10 and Oklahoma by 12, their biggest margin of defeat in 2014.  Assuming they fill the missing parts and the way Holgerson has had this program building, they could be a factor in the Big 12.  1-3
  • P – I stand by what I said in the worst case section but also add, Morgantown is never a cakewalk for a road game.  L, 31-14, 3-1

Michigan

  • BC – Terps won this in the Big House a season ago.  The surprising hot start continues with some home cooking.  5-0
  • WC – Sure a few big name players are gone, but UM actually has a host of talent back.  Enough to win this road game.  1-4
  • P – I don’t love Michigan but I have more confidence in their roster in early August than I do in Maryland’s.  L, 28-21, 3-2 (0-1)

At Ohio State

  • BC – Well that start was fun, but the undefeated streak comes crashing down.  5-1
  • WC – Lost it 52-24 a season ago, so yeah…it can get worse.  1-5
  • P – I give the odds of an upset about 0.0001 of coming through.  L, 56-14, 3-3 (0-2)

Penn State (Neutral Site)

  • BC – Top to bottom, Penn State has a better team on paper.  Don’t see Maryland pulling this thing out.  5-2
  • WC – Edsall, who has never been the most popular guy in College Park, quickly gets questions about his job status.  1-6
  • P – I have Penn State as the third best team in the division and possibly the league while I have Maryland near the bottom.  Lions coast.  L, 31-17, 3-4 (0-3)

At Iowa

  • BC – After a slow start, Maryland rolled in the final three quarters to kill Iowa a season ago.  Nice bounce back after two tough games.  6-2
  • WC – Iowa is a surprise team this year after a rocky 2014 thanks to a more experienced defense.  1-7
  • P – These two teams both look like crap on paper so I could throw a dart, flip a coin or go by my old stand by, home field.  Hawks enjoy the win in Kinnick.  L, 27-21, 3-5 (0-4)

Wisconsin

  • BC – Well considering they gave up a 527 yards and 311 rushing yards a year ago and had 52 points dropped on them, I suppose being competitive would be a start.  6-3
  • WC – Wisconsin scored 80 pints in a game a few years.  1-8
  • P – UW runs left, right and center to another lopsided win.  L, 49-3, 3-6 (0-5)

At Michigan State

  • BC – UM only lost this game by 22 a year ago so…moral victory?  6-4
  • WC – With the last two games winnable the heat is on Randy to finish strong to save his job.  1-9
  • P – MSU is a legit title contender and Spartan Stadium has gone from a forgettable stadium to a hell hole for visitors.  Yes, hell hole from a visiting perspective is a compliment.  L, 42-0, 3-7 (0-6)

Indiana

  • BC – A brutal middle part of the season opens up finally for the Terps.  7-4
  • WC – Maryland has packed it in, given up and the Hoosiers are a surprising bowl bound club.  1-10
  • P – UM crushed IU last year when Indiana was full strength.  Just like the Iowa game I think a deciding factor for two similarly ranked teams is home field.  W, 38-28, 4-7 (1-6)

At Rutgers

  • BC – In a battle of newcomers, Rutgers raised a few eyebrows by taking care of Maryland.  Terps get revenge and notch an 8th victory to improve their bowl standing.  8-4
  • WC – RU is a surprisingly formidable team well on their way to a bowl and dominate the hapless turtles.  1-11
  • P – Scarlet Knights benefit as much as anybody from Maryland taking a step back in 2015 because RU needs as many winnable games as possible as they build their program in the rough Big Ten East.  L, 28-24, 4-8 (1-7)

Final Notes

What would it take for Edsall to lose his job?  Well the 1-11 stinker would do it for sure.  What is less clear is if they win 4-7 games again this year.  He isn’t beloved and his current record 20-30 (10-22) is obviously not hot.  On the other hand, the recruiting and facilities have improved and he has made back-to-back bowls.  This is just a year when they will be super young and have a daunting schedule.  Rumor has it that 2016-2018 when these kids grow up will be the time Maryland shines and that between roster turnover and the division being so good, this year has little expectations.  If that’s the truth, I think Edsall can survive a 4-8 mark but this is Maryland.  Need I remind you they fired Ralph Friedgen after a 9-4 season…75-50 (43-37) career…7 bowl games…4 bowl wins…1 BCS game and 1 conference title?  So they aren’t exactly known for doing the smart thing.

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