Penn State’s 2014 season was a lot like one of the girls Jerry dated in Seinfeld – the two face. In certain light she is beautiful and at other times she is ugly. PSU was the same. Their top 10 defense was a sight to behold. The offense though, especially the running game was brutal. The season started nicely with a 4-0 start but they were then blown out by Northwestern, lost at Michigan by 5 and only scored 13 points and lost to Maryland by 1 and only scored 19 points. Sandwiched between the two UM games was a double overtime loss to Ohio State that could have changed so much of last year’s title picture. Sitting at 4-4 they won the next two: Indiana in a 13-7 stinker and Temple to make a bowl. Then they dropped the final two: Illinois in a 16-14 stinker and Michigan State to finish 6-6. Once in the bowl they took care of Boston College in OT to finish with a winning record.
The major take away from 2014 is that something wasn’t right with Christian Hackenberg. His completion percentage was down 3 points, his yards per attempt was down a yard and a half, he threw 8 fewer touchdowns and 5 more INTs. It is easy to call this a sophomore slump but also unfair. The OL created no rushing game and Hackenberg’s sacks more than doubled from 21 to 44 over his fresh and soph year. If this unit can protect him, there is no reason for the offense not to be more balanced and allow him to carve up defenses in the league.
The defense should be as good, maybe even better. This isn’t a stretch considering they return seven starters including human tackling robot Nyeem Wartman-White, two legit studs on the line and the heart and soul in DB Jordan Lucas. There is zero worry from any PSU fan about the formidable defense they will be unleashing.
2015 Schedule
At Temple
- Best Case – The Owls were a mirror image of Penn State with an outstanding defense, zero offense and a 6-6 finish. Problem is, they are doing it with AAC-level talent. 1-0
- Worst Case – PSU enjoyed a rare easy game against Temple a season ago and should be better. 1-0
- Prediction – W, 35-10, 1-0
Buffalo
- BC – The Bulls went 5-6 last year with two of their wins over FCS clubs. 2-0
- WC – Other than Hackenberg getting his leg rolled up on, Penn State should coast. 2-0
- P – W, 42-7, 2-0
Rutgers
- BC – PSU won last year, returns more talent and hosts. 3-0
- WC – The OL continues to struggle, the defense gets banged up in the first two games and it is a perfect storm for the Knights. 2-1
- P – Love the defense to stifle Rutgers who will be having a new starting quarterback this year. W, 17-6, 3-0 (1-0)
San Diego State
- BC – SDSU is like the Iowa of the Mountain West. Tread water just enough to make a bowl but they never beat anyone. 4-0
- WC – If PSU drops the Rutgers game for some reason, they are going to come out and smoke SDSU. 3-1
- P – W, 35-14, 4-0 (1-0)
Army
- BC – Never a thrill to play these triple option teams mid season but for pure athleticism, the Lions enjoy a huge margin. 5-0
- WC – Penn State will repeat last year’s undefeated non-conference mark. 4-1
- P – W, 31-3, 5-0 (1-0)
Indiana
- BC – IU’s defense remains terrible while Penn State is enjoying a much more explosive scoring unit. 6-0
- WC – Indiana turns out to be a club that has turned a corner and steals one on the road. 4-2
- P – I think the Hoosiers will be a competitive and tough out in many game but ultimately fall short too many times. W, 24-21, 6-0 (2-0)
At Ohio State
- BC – This was a double OT thriller and Penn State wasn’t a great team a year ago. 7-0
- WC – The defense takes a slight step back and the offense never grows resulting in a second straight year of bitterly close losses. 4-3
- P – In Happy Valley, I take Penn State but the Shoe is a whole different story. L, 28-24, 6-1 (2-1)
Maryland (neutral site)
- BC – This was a one-point game a season ago and if you haven’t noticed, I think the Lions are going to be a much improved club in 2015. 8-0
- WC – I’m not a Randy Edsall guy. I think this team over achieved mightily a season ago. PSU gets a huge win to keep bowl hopes alive. 5-3
- P – Umm, Maryland’s two best offensive players from a not-very explosive offense are gone. Terps have the potential to be a mess this year. W, 31-17, 7-1 (3-1)
Illinois
- BC – Considering I have Beckman getting fired and PSU undefeated up to now, I think we know where this is going. 9-0
- WC – Illinois is the surprise team of the year. Meanwhile the bad luck of last year spills over to a second straight season for the folks in Happy Valley as they just can’t string wins together. 5-4
- P – I have PSU as the third best team in the division but considering OSU and MSU are national title contenders, that isn’t a bad place to be. W, 21-6, 8-1 (4-1)
At Northwestern
- BC – The finale against MSU is looking like it will be a sweet 16 game as the winner misses Indy and thus the final four tournament as both clubs are undefeated. 10-0
- WC – It isn’t pretty but Penn State slips into a second straight bowl as Franklin is keeping them competitive while building his program. 6-4
- P – Much like Maryland, I do not have high hopes for this team as they don’t return many impact guys and the coaching is always a little suspect. W, 28-10, 9-1 (5-1)
Michigan
- BC – A showdown of top 5 teams next week in East Lansing. 11-0
- WC – Michigan exceeds all of my (slim) expectations in Harbaugh’s first year, including a highway robbery of a win at a so-so Penn State team. 6-5
- P – Much like Minnesota’s defense, Penn State has a real possibility to not just be the best in the league but a contender for best in the nation. They will rely on that unit against a brilliant offensive mind in Harbaugh. W, 27-7, 10-1 (6-1)
At Michigan State
- BC – Indianapolis bound in an instant classic won on a Hackenberg last minute drive. 12-0
- WC – Based on how big a hit the sanctions and O’Brien’s abrupt departure could have set this program back, making a second straight bowl ain’t bad. 6-6
- P – Michigan State lost their defensive coordinator and some key faces on offense but the returning talent is scary. Going to Spartan Stadium won’t be fun, either. L, 36-34 OT, 10-2 (7-2)
Final Notes
Best Case is undefeated and I am penciling in ten wins so not sure what else I can add other than I am a big believer in growth as a unit. Sure the OL struggled last year, but almost all the starters are back. I like that continuity so I expect the biggest weakness from a season ago to be vastly improved. If anything, the weakness Penn State will have in 2015 is the schedule. Road trips to East Lansing and Columbus are a tall order. I’m sure they would gladly flip the Indiana, Rutgers and Illinois games to get just one of the heavy hitters in Beaver Stadium but as Kirk Ferentz would say, “That’s Football.”
Big Ten and Counting 