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Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – Northwestern

Northwestern enters 2015 in a very troubling state.  They are just 10-14 and 4-12 in league the last two years combined.  The had one of the worst offenses a season ago and no real clear cut quarterback.  As of now coach Fitzgerald still has an open competition with three players.  Season is a month away sports fans.  Worse, while the defense wasn’t terrible, they weren’t good enough to patch the holes like Penn State and Minnesota’s defenses did a year ago.  As for last year’s 5-7 finish, it was an inauspicious 0-2 start with losses to Cal and Northern Illinois.  They rebounded with three straight wins against FCS Western Illinois, at Penn State and Wisconsin.  Turned out those games said more about PSU’s lack of scoring and Wisconsin needing a change at quarter back than making NU a good team.  They faltered in the next four, including a humbling 41 point loss to Iowa.  Who knew Iowa could even score 41 points in a game last year.  They stunned Notre Dame in OT and took down Purdue to get to 5-6 before the real Wildcats made an encore performance and got drubbed by Illinois.

Hopes for 2015 rest on the legs of Justin Jackson.  The thousand yard back takes pressure off the rest of the shaky offense.  Wideout Dan Vitale and Christian Jones (back from injury) need to step up now that Kyle Prater is in the NFL but of course all of this is a moot point if the quarterback position continues to be a nightmare.  Defensively there are some nice pieces.  Dean Lowery on the line, Drew Smith at LB is a solid player and of course that secondary and one up and comer.  DBs Traveon Henry and Goodwin Igwebuike both had a lot flashes but if they are more consistent, the entire defense will change because they can start blitzing more knowing the back end will hold up.  Lastly is outstanding sophmore linebacker Anthony Walker.  Every team would love to have him on their roster after the show he put on as a freshman.  The problem was despite good players, the unit wasn’t cohesive.  They allowed 30+ five times and only pulled one of those games out.  Considering no one has any idea what to expect from the offense, the best hope for NU to make a bowl is follow Penn State’s 2014 blue print and just not let the other team score.  Are the WIldcats good enough to do that?  That’s what I’m worried about.

2015 Schedule

Stanford

  • Best Case – We know what you get from Stanford – outstanding defense and punishingly physical offense.  Oh and Kevin Hogan is back.  Don’t see much of a shot for Northwestern winning this difficult opener.  0-1
  • Worst Case – Stanford won handily at UCLA last season and killed Maryland in their bowl game.  This could get ugly.  0-1
  • Prediction – I’m going to take the better coached team that has a veteran quarterback and a proven track record at winning.  L, 28-17, 0-1

Eastern Illinois

  • BC – An FCS club that was under .500 last year, easy as pie.  1-1
  • WC – Outside injuries, this shouldn’t be too risky.  1-1
  • P – W, 38-3, 1-1

At Duke

  • BC – Anthony Boone left some massive shoes to fill at quarterback for the Blue Devils and don’t even get me started on Jamison Crowder who is now in D.C. with the Controversial Mascots.  What a star.  2-1
  • WC – Despite the superstar in Crowder bringing attention to the O, this team actually boasted a good defense and had a win over Georgia Tech and gave Arizona State all they could handle in the bowl.  Plus do you want to bet against coach David Cutcliffe?  1-2
  • P – I just can’t imagine what Duke will do without Boone and Crowder, especially against a team that could have a pretty good defense in the ‘cats.  W, 24-14, 2-1

Ball State

  • BC – Cards were only 5-7 a season ago.  3-1
  • WC – I know they gave Iowa a run last year, but this isn’t a vintage MAC club.  2-2
  • P – W, 31-13, 3-1

Minnesota

  • BC – Thanks to a strong defense and much improved offense, the good play since the opening day loss continues with a fourth straight victory.  4-1
  • WC – Gopher’s defense is one of the best in the league while NU’s quarterback situation is the envy of no one.  2-3
  • P – Just like Duke’s match-up with Northwestern, I am worried about if the Wildcats can score enough points against good defenses and I think the Gophers should have a strong D.  L, 31-21, 3-2 (0-1)

At Michigan

  • BC – The Wolverines’ two best offensive players are gone and they have a whole new coaching scheme.  Hmm.  5-1
  • WC – Of course Michigan returns a boat load of talent and has a better coach than Brady Hoke running things now.  2-4
  • P – I’m in the minority on taking a wait and see approach to Michigan since I think coaching changes are a bigger factor than people realize but this is a home game and UM has more talent on paper.  L, 24-21, 3-3 (0-2)

Iowa

  • BC – Iowa ends up being a disaster.  Meanwhile Northwestern’s defense is one of the nation’s best and they ride that unit to another tight win.  The Cardiac Cats moniker returns.  6-1
  • WC – Hawks embarrassed NU a season ago, 48-7.  2-5
  • P – Despite me wanting Iowa to implode to force a staff shakeup, I don’t think they will bottom out completely, especially when they get to play teams like Northwestern and Illinois.  L, 28-17, 3-4 (0-3)

At Nebraska

  • BC – Huskers lost a lot of talent from both sides of the ball and have a new coach.  With tiebreakers over Minnesota and Nebraska, Northwestern controls their destiny for the Big Ten West.  7-1
  • WC – Big Red won this by 21 a season ago.  I don’t think they will be as good, but they won’t fall off a cliff, either.  Plus it is in Lincoln.  2-6
  • P – I just don’t see an explosive enough offense to get out of this tail spin once they hit league play, especially on the road.  L, 31-17, 3-5 (0-4)

Penn State

  • BC – The winning streak is snapped as PSU brings in a rugged D and a vastly improved OL which allows Hackenberg to be the quarterback we all think he is.  7-2
  • WC – Penn State is undefeated and a top 10 club.  NU becomes cannon fodder on their march to Indy.  2-7
  • P – Top to bottom, I think PSU has a better roster.  As for coaching, well, I’m not a believer in Fitz.  L, 28-10, 3-6 (0-5)

Purdue

  • BC – Last year was a perfect storm for Northwestern en route to a 24 point win over PU.  Nice bounce back from their first league loss.  8-2
  • WC – Purdue has a major breakthrough season.  Northwestern is mired in mud as the offense continues to be one of the league’s worst.  2-8
  • P – I have the Boilermakers stunning the league and making a bowl at 6-6.  Why?  I don’t trust several teams because of coaching or quarterback.  At Northwestern they have issues at both.  L, 28-17, 3-7 (0-6)

At Wisconsin

  • BC – You know Northwestern won this game a year ago.  They did so because Gary Andersen was a terrible coach and insisted on passing the ball way too much, which Northwestern enjoyed for having 3 INTs from Goodwin.  They won’t make the same mistake twice.  8-3
  • WC – Cats have checked out while the Badgers have something to play for.  2-9
  • P – Not sure Northwestern has enough on the defensive line to stop Wisconsin if they run the ball 50 times.  L, 24-7, 3-8 (0-7)

Illinois (Neutral Site)

  • BC – Blow out their rival to make a dang good bowl game.  9-3
  • WC – NU lost this game 47-33 a year ago, let’s not pretend it can’t happen again.  2-10
  • P – I’m not confident about either team so in a completely arbitrary tiebreaker I will side with the team that has a proven quarterback.  Wes Lunt even has the potential to be a really good qb.  L, 28-24, 3-9 (0-8)

Final Notes

Winless in the league, yikes.  What does this mean for Pat Fitzgerald?  Nothing.  He is a beloved former player who has taken this team to five bowl games, won one, has a 10-win season under his belt and is entering this season above .500 for his career.  He’ll be fine.  The problem is this team has a tough schedule with Penn State and a trip to Ann Arbor as their cross overs games.  They have to travel to Madison and Lincoln and lastly they face Stanford and go to Duke in the non-con.  I think this team has six or seven win talent, maybe more if the qb situation shakes out, but will be beaten down by the schedule.  Let’s also not forget this team is still pretty young.  Jackson and Walker, their two best players, are both Sophomores.  I think they take one more season on the chin before coming back with some fire in 2016.  They should go 3-0 in the non conference (league switches to 9-league games in 2016) and their league slate offers up all the western teams but also Indiana and Michigan State, who will be experiencing a ton of roster turnover after this year.  2015 won’t be one for the ages, but 2016 projects to be the year Fitz gets his team back on the map.

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