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Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – Indiana

I’ll be the first to admit, I had Indiana bowling last year.  I thought Kevin Wilson was a good hire, his teams had improved and in 2013 they went 5-7 and returned Nate Sudfeld at quarterback.  My prediction looked pretty good too as they started 3-2, including a stunning upset of Missouri.  Sadly for Hoosier fans in the sixth game of the year Sudfeld had a season ending injury and they would not win again until the finale against Purdue.  To make matters worse the defense, which has never really been a priority for the offensive-minded Wilson, finished an atrocious 102nd in points allowed per last year.

The good news from Bloomington is that Sudfeld is back and healthy.  The bad news is the leading rushers, including outstanding talent Tevin Coleman, are both gone as are the leading two receivers.  This isn’t ideal, even for a vet like Sudfeld.  The defense is another story with tons of returning talent.  T.J. Simmons is a tackling machine.  Tegray Scales is coming off an outstanding freshman season.  Nick Mangieri and Nate Hoff both have a lot of experience and former 4-star recruit Darius Latham hasn’t missed a game in his career and started 10 games last year as a sophomore.  The talent is there, but can this unit finally produce is the million dollar question.  If they do and Sudfeld finds some weapons then it stands to reason Indiana can make a bowl game but like most of Hoosier football history no one will believe it until they see it.

2015 Schedule

Southern Illinois

  • Best Case – SIU went 6-6 last year but one of their wins was a D-2 school.  1-0
  • Worst Case – Injuries.  1-0
  • Prediction – W, 42-14, 1-0

Florida International

  • BC – FIU was one of the worst offensive teams in the nation last year.  2-0
  • WC – Fun fact, the Golden Panthers scheduled two FCS teams last year and split them.  2-0
  • P – W, 45-6, 2-0

Western Kentucky

  • BC – The Hilltoppers lost to Illinois last year and had the 124th ranked defense giving up 39.9 ppg.  3-0
  • WC – WKU had the 2nd best passing game, 6th best scoring rate and a respectable rushing attack.  2-1
  • P – Western is a really scary team.  Their two leading rushers are back, including 1500 yard man Leon Allen.  Their two leading wideouts are back, including Jared Dangerfield who snagged 69 passes, 11 of which were touchdowns.  Finally Brandon Doughty who orchestrated this offense is back under center.  I think this is the toughest non-con game Indiana has and an upset wouldn’t surprise me; however, that defense was terrible a season ago and if Indiana’s higher caliber talent (like you would expect for a Big Ten club) gets some stops, Indiana should win.  W, 42-35, 3-0

At Wake Forest

  • BC – As bad as FIU was on offense, Wake was even worse.  4-0
  • WC – This is a road game, Wake has no where to go but up, and they did knock off Va Tech a year ago in a 6-3 double overtime barn burner.  2-2
  • P – Wake won just 3 times a year ago and one of their wins was over an FCS team.  Of their two top division wins, they were by a field goal each.  It is a multi-year rebuild for the Demon Deacons.  Indiana needs to win games like this if they have any hope for a bowl.  W, 31-10, 4-0

Ohio State

  • BC – Welcome to league play, Indiana.  Let’s get you settled in with someone easy and…oh.  4-1
  • WC – Last year’s game was surprisingly close, all things considered at 42-27.  2-3
  • P – Too big a talent gap combined with too many new faces on offense to pull the trigger on a massive upset bid.  L, 38-17, 4-1 (0-1)

At Penn State

  • BC – Indiana killed PSU two years ago with a healthy Sudfeld and nearly knocked them off last year without him.  Bounce back win in Happy Valley.  5-1
  • WC – PSU’s offense improves, especially for Hackenberg after last year’s sophomore slump.  Meanwhile Indiana’s defense is still one of the worst in the league and bowl hopes start to slip quickly.  2-4
  • P – If Indiana is to make a bowl they have to take advantage of their soft non-con and a few key dates in league play.  This, the Rutgers game and the Purdue rivalry tilt are their best shots at league wins.  Unfortunately this one is in Beaver Stadium which is difficult to win at even when PSU has a down year.  L, 24-21, 4-2 (0-2)

Rutgers

  • BC – RU is a different team without senior qb Gary Nova leading them.  Indiana clinches a bowl way earlier than anyone would have expected.  6-1
  • WC – The Scarlet Knights were a plucky, 8-win team a year ago and had no problem racking up yards and points against the Hoosiers.  2-5
  • P – Nova being gone hurts, but there are a lot of other skilled offensive players back to help whoever gets the starting job in New Jersey.  Defensively RU isn’t amazing but they were still a whole lot better than Indiana.  This will be a bitter pill to swallow.  L, 42-35, 4-3 (0-3)

At Michigan State

  • BC – This was a 56-17 snoozer last year.  Any improvement on that is a job well done.  6-2
  • WC – Wilson is a few weeks away from becoming a damn good OC again in college football.  2-6
  • P – MSU is stacked with talent on both sides of the field and Spartan Stadium has quietly become a nightmare trip for teams.  L, 42-13, 4-4 (0-4)

Iowa

  • BC – Iowa looks like the 2-10 team I have joked about and Indiana not only locks down a bowl but is trying to finish above .500 in league play.  7-2
  • WC – Iowa proves everyone wrong, meanwhile Indiana has packed it in as Wilson getting fired becomes all but guaranteed.  2-7
  • P – Indiana’s defense was so bad a year ago that Iowa somehow put up 45 points.  This isn’t quite as easy on paper as PSU, RU and Purdue but this game is also critical if IU hopes to make a bowl.  Sadly, Iowa’s defense should be stronger after a shaky 2014 with a lot of new faces, especially at LB.  L, 31-24, 4-5 (0-5)

Michigan

  • BC – Harbaugh can’t work wonders in year one and Indiana’s magical season becomes extra special with a rare win over the Wolverines.  8-2
  • WC – Wilson gets canned so he doesn’t even travel with the team to Maryland.  At least he enjoys Thanksgiving.  2-8
  • P – Despite all of Michigan’s awfulness a year ago, they won this game 34-10.  I understand Sudfeld helps and Michigan lost a lot of talent but were the changes combined worth a 24 point swing?  I don’t buy it.  L, 28-24, 4-6 (0-6)

At Maryland

  • BC – Indiana clinches a winning league record and enters the polls for the first time in…forever?  9-2
  • WC – Headed towards a winless league record with their coach already gone, Indiana no shows after the holiday on the road.  2-9
  • P – I don’t think much of this Maryland team, but they killed Indiana a year ago when Sudfeld was healthy and it is a road game, something the Hoosiers aren’t exactly known for winning.  L, 38-28, 4-7 (0-7)

At Purdue

  • BC – Crimson and Cream will be heading to a New Year’s day bowl with a damn fine season.  10-2
  • WC – Purdue clinches a 10-win season as Bloomington just wants it to be basketball season.  2-10
  • P – One strange thing about Indiana is even in bad 2013 and 2014 campaigns they still knocked off the Boilermakers.  In a cruel twist, IU misses a bowl game but finishes strong against their rival for the third straight season.  W, 31-21, 5-7 (1-7)

Final Notes

The schedule is manageable between Rutgers, Michigan and Iowa all coming to Memorial Stadium.  Road trips to PSU, Maryland and Purdue could also provide league wins.  I don’t need to remind you how easy the non-con is, either.  So what’s holding Indiana back…well no one, not even coach Wilson knows how all the new faces on offense will gel with Sudfeld.  No one knows if the defense will improve enough either.  Lastly, as we saw last year Indiana’s depth just isn’t there.  Losing a qb is hard, but IU completely imploded and couldn’t score at all the rest of the way.  It is troubling to predict a team having success when you know just a few injuries could tank them.

What does this mean for Kevin Wilson?  He’s 14-34 (6-26) in four full seasons.  He has had the team hold steady at around 5 wins the last 3 years after a terrible debut season.  A bowl keeps him safe for sure and I think if they are competitive with four or five wins they keep him because they experienced the spin cycle with coaches for years.  It would be a tough sell, but if they play well and win 4 or 5 games, I give Wilson a sixth season.  Three or less, he’s gone.

This isn’t unprecedented for Indiana, either.  Cam Cameron was given 5 years and they’ve been more competitive than Gerry DiNardo or Bill Lynch ever had them (save 2007).  The reason I hold on to Wilson and give him as much time as humanly possible is the offense and recruiting has been much better with him.  He also has a pedigree that IU rarely gets.  He won the assistant of the year award in 2008 and was outstanding on Stoops’ staff at Oklahoma.  If you aren’t going to be patient with him, why hire someone who had never been a college head coach?

He’s trying to build a program as he was learning on the fly so it was going to be a process.  If Indiana dumps Wilson they will have to take a flyer on some MAC guy like Illinois and Purdue did.  Have either experienced much success?  We also haven’t seen the wild swings in success like Ron Zook had.  I really think Wilson is doing a nice job building the program slowly.  Indiana has been a doormat for decades and now has to try and swim in a league that has OSU and MSU at the top of the world as well as traditional powers PSU, Michigan and a program light years ahead of development in Maryland…and that’s just the Big Ten East!  Bowl or bust isn’t a smart solution either because Tim Beckman made a bowl last season and no one is happy to see him back.  It is easy as fans to use record as the only measuring stick but at a program like Indiana with a risky hire like Wilson, you need to use a different litmus test.

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