The fact the Illini made a bowl last year still stuns me. They opened the season 3-1 with the wins being over an FCS team, WKU and Texas State and none of them were that impressive. The loss was a blowout at Washington. They started league play 0-3, including a loss to Purdue. Somehow beat a good Minnesota team but then lost two more to drop to 4-6 (1-5). They should have been done. Beckman should have been fired. Yet, they rallied. They beat offensively challenged Penn State in an ugly 16-14 game and then smoked Northwestern to make a bowl. Fittingly, since Illinois was never really that good, they got taken care of with ease by Louisiana Tech to end the year 6-7. The result was enough for Beckman to keep his job, but he has yet to get a contract extension and allegations in the off season of player mistreatment have certainly made the offseason a dramatic one for the Orange Crush.
Hopes for 2015 rest on the shoulders of qb Wes Lunt. He helped spark the hot start but injuries cost him time and when he came back he wasn’t quite the same. Senior Reilly O’Toole played alright including helping in the Penn State, Northwestern and Minnesota wins but he has graduated so Lunt not only needs to stay healthy but stay as consistent as he looked last year. In the four games when he was fully healthy he had 11 TDs to 3 INTs, his lowest completion percentage was 63.2 and his lowest yard total was 230. Even the Washington game was decent and the lopsided nature of the loss can’t be put on him.
Joining Lunt is leading rusher Josh Ferguson and leading receivers Mike Dudek and Geronimo Allison. Ferguson split carries last year but his 146 carries for 735 yards (5.0 average) and 8 scores is pretty handy. We’ll see if Beckman turns him into a workhorse or not now that the second option has graduated. An overlooked aspect of Ferguson’s game is that he is a pretty useful receiving back. Dudek was a good story last year as a 1000 yard receiving freshman and Allison came from no where catching his first ball last year as a junior en route to a 41 catch season with 596 yards. Not a bad second option.
All this sounds good but the Illinois offense didn’t pack much punch and the reason is clear, the line was not up to Big Ten standards. 33 sacks were allowed and 114th in rushing reflect this units weakness. As a result they only mustered 25.9 ppg which was a tepid 89th. Worse, the defense ended the year 109th, allowing 34 points a game. There might be some good news on the that front though.
Returning pieces Clayton Fejedelem, Eaton Spence and Dawuane Smoot are all experienced players. Jihad Ward is a damn good defensive lineman and Mason Monheim is a tackling machine. Taylor Barton is coming off an outstanding sophomore season and could probably start on any team in the league. Then there are two amazing x-factors also in the fold. The first is Jaylen Dunlap who was pretty reliable as a freshman only to miss last year with injury. Mike Svetina is also back from a season ending injury. He started 5 games as a true freshman in 2012 and 11 games in 2013. This unit might not be extremely deep, but the starters have the potential to be pretty formidable.
2015 Schedule
Kent State
- Best Case – Kent was a walking disaster last season. Illinois has no reason not to hammer them. 1-0
- Worst Case – Injuries, especially long-term ones. 1-0
- Prediction – W, 42-10, 1-0
Western Illinois
- BC – The FCS club went just 5-7 a season ago. 2-0
- WC – Illinois took care of Youngstown State in a FCS game a year ago. 2-0
- P – W, 49-7, 2-0
At North Carolina
- BC – UNC was a strange team last year. Their offense was okay and Marquise Williams is a solid qb but the defense was non existent. They gave up 30 points 9 times (2-7), 40 points 6 times (1-5), 50 points 3 times (0-3) and the icing on the cake was 70 points to ECU. They also got smoked by Rutgers in their bowl game and went 6-7 overall. 3-0
- WC – Almost everyone on UNC’s schedule made a bowl game last year and they knocked off 4 teams that would make bowl trips, most impressively was Duke and Georgia Tech. I know Illinois is as good as either of those teams. 2-1
- P – I think Larry Fedora is coaching for his job this year, the game is at home for the Heels and that defense has to be improved. Tough loss for Illinois. L, 31-21, 2-1
Middle Tennessee State
- BC – MTSU went 6-6 a season ago with losses to Minnesota and BYU. Blue Raiders aren’t Big Ten caliber obviously. 4-0
- WC – I have a hard time seeing Illinois goofing up this game, especially if it is coming off a loss. 3-1
- P – W, 38-17, 3-1
Nebraska
- BC – The Illinois defense has gone from a liability to a strength and they lock down the Huskers. Meanwhile Lunt shreds the blackshirts as Illinois enters the polls with a dominating win. 5-0
- WC – They lost this won 45-14 a season ago. 3-2
- P – I’m expecting a bit of a rocky season for Nebraska as the talent is good but not great and they are all adjusting to a new coach. Not rocky enough to lose to Illinois though. L, 35-21, 3-2 (0-1)
At Iowa
- BC – Iowa could be a real Jekyll and Hyde team this season. Catch them on the right week and you might blow them out, even in Iowa City. 6-0
- WC – Illinois struggled to score in this one last year, putting up just 14 points. Iowa’s defense should improve as they were breaking in a lot of fresh faces in the front 7 last year. 3-3
- P – Neither Lunt nor O’Toole could get the passing game going against Iowa last year. Not sure why this season would be any different. L, 21-17, 3-3 (0-2)
Wisconsin
- BC – This was only a ten point game a season ago…but…even with the improved defense Illinois could enjoy, I don’t think they have enough to stop Bucky. 6-1
- WC – A blowout and Beckman’s job status becomes the talk of the town. 3-4
- P – Tough stretch to start league play for Illinois. I think they’ll be competitive for a third straight game but just not get over the hump. L, 42-28, 3-4 (0-3)
At Penn State
- BC – The Lion offense continues to stink like they did last year. Illinois bounces back from their first loss and keeps some of the heat on UW for the division. 7-1
- WC – PSU barely lost this game last year and they were a hot mess. If they find any rushing game and Christian Hackenberg returns to his freshman form, PSU could be the sleeper this year in the league. 3-5
- P – I doubt PSU can navigate past both OSU and MSU for the division, but they should be better and hold home serve against a team like Illinois. L, 21-6, 3-5 (0-4)
At Purdue
- BC – The turn around in Campaign is remarkable as they get revenge on Purdue for last year’s blowout. 8-1
- WC – Purdue is the breakthrough gem team of the year. Meanwhile Illinois is pushed to the brink. 3-6
- P – Call me crazy, but I think Hazell is a better coach and his slow rebuild will be more effective in the long run. I just don’t think that bowl washed Illinois of their sins a season ago. L, 35-21, 3-6 (0-5)
Ohio State
- BC – They bow out of the division race with another loss, but they are competitive and the improvement is remarkable. 8-2
- WC – Beckman’s last few weeks get real ugly. 3-7
- P – Trophies do not make a rivalry and even then rivalries do not guarantee close games. L, 49-14, 3-7 (0-6)
At Minnesota
- BC – Gopher’s make up for last year’s bitter loss but Illinois has still exceeds everyone’s expectation. 8-3
- WC – Minnesota’s defense is the best in the league and a sturdy offense has led to the Gopher’s being a top-15 team. Illinois gets plastered. 3-8
- P – UM has a chance to be great this year. Any game against them, especially in Minneapolis, will not be a fun date. L, 28-3, 3-8 (0-7)
Northwestern
- BC – Illinois smoked them a year ago to make a bowl. They smoke them this year to get in position for a New Year’s bowl. 9-3
- WC – NU won five games a year ago and had they won the land of Lincoln game, they would have been the team playing in a post season game. 3-9
- P – About the only team I trust less than Illinois this year is Northwestern. W, 28-24, 4-8 (1-7)
Final Notes
The schedule is brutal, the coach isn’t any good and we are relying on a lot of players to perform who were injured for long stretches a year ago. The defense will be better – it can’t get any worse – but it won’t be enough with the difficult road games and Ohio State on the docket. Barring something as dumbfounding as last year’s late run to a bowl, I see no chance Beckman returns. Let’s not forget that Beckman is now 12-25 (4-20) at Illinois, it was a miracle he even gets a fourth year.
His tenure at Toledo in the MAC was okay, but didn’t have the longevity of Jerry Kill since it was only 3 years. Before that he was the DC at Oklahoma State for two years. The teams went a combined 16-10 and weren’t exactly known for their robust defense. To me Beckman did just well enough in Stillwater to get the Toledo gig. He then did just well enough in Toledo to get Illinois to bite…but he’s in over his head now at a major program and doesn’t have the cover of Mike Gundy’s offense to make him look better.
Personally, even with the bowl, I would have canned him last year. Illinois has too many things going for it to be this bad, this consistently. There is no reason Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan State should be light-years ahead of Illinois as programs, yet they are. The obvious answer is the last two coaching hires, Zook and Beckman just have not panned out. The primary reason both were hired it seemed was they had head coaching experience. Not sure that is enough of a criteria. If I’m Illinois I am doing a much more exhaustive search and getting a coordinator that can appropriately build.
I’ll even put out a candidate I would go after. Mike Bloomgren. He’s been at Stanford since 2011 as an OL coach and other duties, including offensive coordinator since 2013. Before that he was in the NFL. He’s only 38 so if Illinois hires him, he works out and he’s loyal, they could have a coach for a long, long time. He graduated magna cum laude from Florida State and had a 4.0 at Alabama for his masters. Hmm, young, smart, experienced and exceeding at Stanford. Can I interest you in that, Illinois fans? Actually, I take all this back. I want Bloomgren in Iowa City. Illinois can just take some MAC coach, I don’t care.
Big Ten and Counting 