Raise your hand if you thought Rutgers was going to be awful in 2014. Be honest. I have my arm up. We had good reason, too. Rutgers went 6-7 and just 3-5 in the AAC back in 2013. With the step up in competition and a quarterback with the nickname Gary Turn-Nova for the amount of turnovers he caused, RU was poised to be a laughing stock. Scarlet Knight fans got the last laugh. A 5-1 start soured but late wins against Indiana and Maryland got Rutgers into a bowl which they would win to go a startling 8-5. Yes they got blasted by OSU, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Michigan State last year but they won all their manageable games but one (Penn State) but made up for it with a road win at Maryland.
The reason for the turnaround was Nova having the best year of his career with highs in Yards, Completion Percentage, Touchdowns and QBR. He did this while posting his second fewest INTs. Unfortunately for RU fans, this turnaround didn’t come with anymore eligibility left as Nova graduated this spring. He takes 41 career starts with him leaving a big hole for coach Kyle Flood and his staff. Last year’s back up, Chris Laviano, has 28 career attempts but in the game he played the most he was downright awful going 2 for 12 against Wisconsin. Hayden Rettig is a 4-star, LSU transfer and has three years of eligibility left with a lot of expectations but hasn’t had as much time in Flood’s system as Laviano. If one of them can step up and be as good as Nova, there are returning pieces.
Leading rushers from 2014 in Desmond Peoples and Paul James are back as well as leading receiver Leonte Carroo. In theory the offense should be fine as long as they find a competent quarterback. A bigger cause for concern is the defense. The unit finished just 89th in the nation last year at points allowed. They gave up 35+ six times and were fortunate to escape with wins in two of those games but obviously this isn’t a recipe for success. For Rutgers to match last year’s pleasant surprise – let alone pass the 8 win mark – they need to get stops more consistently.
2015 Schedule
Norfolk State
Best Case – The FCS Spartans went just 4-8 a year ago. 1-0
Worst Case – Injuries to key placers, especially lengthy ones. 1-0
Prediction – W, 42-10, 1-0
Washington State
BC – Rutgers won this thing in Seattle last year. Double you pleasure. 2-0
WC – Washington State may have been 3-9 a year ago but were the top passing team in the country thanks to Mike Leach. Everyone is expecting them to turn the corner at some point. Why not this year? 1-1
P – WSU is also replacing a veteran qb but had zero running game or defense last year. I trust Leach but I don’t think people realized how awful the team was he took over in Pullman. They are still a year or two if not three full seasons away from being a complete ball club. W, 45-42, 2-0
At Penn State
BC – The Nittany Lions couldn’t score worth a damn a season ago. If their defense takes a slide, they could have a long year. 3-0
WC – PSU develops a running game, Christian Hackenberg returns to form after a sophomore slump and wins this match up for the second straight year. 1-2
P – Penn State was one of the most frustrating teams to watch last year. After a 4-0 start they lost 4 straight including tight ones to Michigan and Maryland of all teams. They also lost to terrible Northwestern in that run. Yet against OSU, they took them to overtime. They rallied to win the next two, one of which was a butt-ugly 13-7 win over Indiana only to lose the next two. The stinker of this flat finish was a 16-14 loss to Illinois. Despite all this with Bob Shoop’s defensive scheme, you can’t count out PSU in any game, especially one where a young qb will be making his third career start and first in a hostile environment. L, 17-6, 2-1 (0-1)
Kansas
BC – Kansas has not won more than 3 games in a season since 2009. They have a brand new coach who has never been a head college coach before. Cakewalk. 4-0
WC – Barring injuries leading up to this one and more happening in game, I really see no way for the Jayhawks to win. 2-2
P – W, 38-14, 3-1 (0-1)
Michigan State
BC – MSU won this one in a laugher 45-3 last year. A moral victory for RU but at the end of the day the undefeated start ends. 4-1
WC – Spartans are the second best team in the league to OSU and the gap between the two isn’t as big as ESPN would have you believe. This one could get ugly. 2-3
P – Too many skilled players back for the Green and White and Dantonio is a better coach than Kyle Flood even on his worst day. L, 52-7, 3-2 (0-2)
At Indiana
BC – Rutgers rights the ship after the first loss of the season with a second straight blowout of Indiana. 5-1
WC – Rutgers embarrassed the Hoosiers a year ago, but this was post-Sudfeld injury time for Indiana. 2-4
P – When you read my IU article you will see why this game is so important but I’ll tease it here. A Hoosier win gets them over the hump and into a bowl. A loss will make them go 5-7. Sadly for Kevin Wilson’s job security, I think its the later. W, 42-35, 4-2 (1-2)
Ohio State
BC – Another what-might-have-been moral victory. 5-2
WC – Kyle Flood job security talk develops even though he signed an extension last year. 2-5
P – This was an ugly one a year ago with the Bucks taking it 56-17. I don’t see enough improvement by RU or enough regression by OSU to change much. L, 49-14, 4-3 (1-3)
At Wisconsin
BC – They finally score against the Badgers. 5-3
WC – RU had 139 yards of offense in a shutout last year. Uh-oh. 2-6
P – In addition to the lackluster O, the defense was shredded on the ground by new number-one Corey Clement. L, 35-6, 4-4 (1-4)
At Michigan
BC – RU matches last year’s surprising win with one in the big house. 6-3
WC – No one knows what to expect from Michigan record-wise, but they expect them to be better and this was only a two point game last year. 2-7
P – Anyone who thinks Harbaugh will be a miracle worker in season-one has not been following Big Ten football. This Michigan team was downright awful a season ago and their best offensive weapon is now in the NFL. W, 28-17, 5-4 (2-4)
Nebraska
BC – The Huskers turn out to be a joke in Mike Riley’s first year. Meanwhile the lumps taken by MSU, OSU and Wisconsin gets Rutgers in a position to finally win one against a team they struggled with last year. 7-3
WC – Nebraska had no problem with Rutgers a season ago and 12 months later nothing has changed outside RU not being as good. 2-8
P – I’m not entirely confident in the returning talent Nebraska has nor the logic behind hiring Mike Riley, but I think there is still enough bite in this team to knock off RU again. L, 31-21, 5-5 (2-5)
At Army
BC – The Knights’ option attack always keeps things interesting, but they went 4-8 a year ago. 8-3
WC – Army lost to Wake last year, Wake! (Okay, they did beat UConn to be 100% honest). 3-8
P – It is hard to blow Army out because they control the ball so much, but I just don’t see Army having the horses for four quarters against a Big Ten school. W, 35-21, 6-5 (2-5)
Maryland
BC – Rutgers gets to 9 wins with a chance for double digit victories come bowl season. They also crack the top-25 for the first time in a while at number 24. 9-3
WC – Maryland gets revenge on a team that has checked out. 3-9
P – Sure Maryland won 7 games, 4 in league a year ago to match Randy Edsall’s best year in College Park and set a new high in league wins but don’t confuse this with a good team. They played a joke of a non-conference, barely beat PSU and Michigan which were not world class and then took care of Indiana and Iowa, with the Hawks game at home. Worse, Maryland’s do it all QB C.J. Brown has graduated. I think the Terps take a step back and no one benefits more than Rutgers matching their 7-win regular season a year ago and building around a QB with two more years of eligibility. W, 28-24, 7-5 (3-5).
Final Notes
This isn’t a kind schedule. OSU, MSU and Wisconsin are all on it. Nebraska is there too. They travel to Happy Valley and Ann Arbor which are never easy to win at even in down years for those programs. This won’t be easy but if they can go 4-0 in the non conference – not a big reach when WSU at home is your hardest game – they just need to find a few league wins to make a bowl. If we learned anything from Flood and his gutsy 2014 club it is Rutgers is a grinder. Rocky wasn’t undefeated and was always bloody. Rutgers is the same way. They won’t win the league this year, but they will give as good as they get and against some of the weaker teams like Maryland, they’ll be able to scratch out some wins, make a bowl and build for a brighter 2016 and beyond.
Big Ten and Counting 