Jerry Kill always builds programs. He isn’t flashy but he is a dependable builder. In 2012 Minnesota went 6-6 and slipped into a bowl. In 2013 they went 8-5 but late losses, including the bowl, and a soft non-con had people wondering if Minnesota will still rising or had reached their peak. 2014 provided some celerity but there are still questions going into 2015. The Gophers went 5-3 in league, won at Michigan and Nebraska, killed Iowa and boasted a punishing rushing attack. Conversely, they won ugly at times (single score games versus Northwestern and Purdue), couldn’t get past Wisconsin or Ohio State, experienced an upset at Illinois and their passing game left a lot to be desired. Did this team overachieve last year? Are they still building on back-to-back 8-win seasons? Can Kill’s staff ever find balance on offense? Hopefully, for better or worse from a UM fan’s perspective, 2015 is more illuminating than the last two years.
The biggest hole is the departure of David Cobb to the NLF. The workhorse had over 300 carries, 1600 yards and found pay dirt 13 times. Another set of shoes that Minnesota has to find a way to fill is tight end Maxx Williams, also off to the NFL. Maxx snagged 36 balls for 569 yards and 8 touchdowns. Between QB Mitch Leidner not being a world-class talent and the WR corps lacking, his numbers were not approached by anyone else on the team. No other receiver had 20 catches. No other receiver had 300 yards. No other receiver had 3 touchdowns. Already a weakness, without Maxx, the passing game could even get worse.
I have been hard on Leidner in other previews and have been here too, but it is warranted. He had a completion percentage above 50 six times in 13 games last year. He had just 2 multi touchdown games last year. In total he had just 11 TDs to 8 INTs. It is hard to be 100% sure if the lack of passing pop is on Leidner or the receiving corps or a combo. I will give Mitch this credit, he is a better runner than people realize. Perhaps he should use his feet more.
Defensively Minnesota was a top 35 team last year and return some critical pieces, including linebackers De’Vondre Campbell and Jack Lynn. Considering Kill played linebacker, his first ever job was as a DC and his staff has Tracy Claes on it for 21 years calling the defense, I expect this unit to continue to be a reliable one.
2015 Schedule
TCU
- Best Case – Question, what team held the Frogs to their lowest point total a year ago? Answer, Minnesota. 1-0
- Worst Case – Question, how many points did Minnesota score in that game a year ago? Answer, 7. 0-1
- All the pressure in the world will be on TCU next season as they try and make the final four. Opening on the road against a good (not great) Gopher team won’t be easy and the fact that Kill has seen this team before is also a challenge. You can make an argument for an upset bid, and I think this will be competitive, but the talent gap, especially comparing the offensive skill positions will be the difference. L, 31-14, 0-1
At Colorado State
- BC – Rams were a good team last year, winning 10 games but their quarterback and top rusher are both graduated and one is now in the NFL learning from Drew Brees. 2-0
- WC – Despite an impressive win total, CSU struggled against top competition, losing to Boise State and in their bowl to Utah. 1-1
- P – Just too much talent departed Fort Collins to expect them to knock off Minnesota, especially this early in the year when they are working out the kinks. W, 28-10, 1-1
Kent State
- BC – Despite having Colin Reardon throw for nearly 2500 yards, the Flashes couldn’t run, score or play defense en route to a 2-9 finish. 3-0
- WC – Reardon is back, but this team was truly awful last year. Cakewalk. 2-1
- P – W, 45-7, 2-1
Ohio
- BC – Bobcats were the definition of mediocre last year. The excelled at nothing, went 6-6 overall and 4-4 in conference. 4-0
- WC – Frank Solich is a well respected coach, but Jerry Kill faced him in the MAC. There is nothing he can do to confuse this Minnesota staff. 3-1
- P – W, 42-14, 3-1
At Northwestern
- BC – Minnesota won this game a year ago and Northwestern has just as many questions, if not more, heading into 2015 than Minnesota does. 5-0
- WC – NU tied this game with just under 8 to go. On the ensuing kick off, Minnesota housed it to win 24-17 after neither team did anything the rest of the way. This wasn’t blowout last year and no one confused NU with a good team a season ago. The good luck UM experienced last year, could easily go the opposite way this year. 3-2
- P – I don’t think Pat Fitzgerald is that good of a coach. His defenses are never outstanding (48th last year) despite being a “guru” on that side of the ball and his offenses look the exact same year in year out. Dinking and dunking can only go so far. They also have a new quarterback, most likely Zack Oliver, who in an injury replacement start tossed 3 picks to help Illinois win and make a bowl. W, 31-21, 4-1 (1-0)
At Purdue
- BC – Leidner continues to improve as he enjoys a breakout season and UM’s undefeated start gets them to 10th in the nation. 6-0
- WC – This was another tight win for Minnesota last year, taking it 39-38. If just a few plays go the other way, they would have lost. 3-3
- P – I think Purdue will be an improved team and this won’t be a cakewalk, but I’m also not going to bet against Kill and his staff in a winnable game like this one. W, 35-31, 5-1 (2-0)
Nebraska
- BC – A new coach in Lincoln means a potential for growing pains as they learn a new system. Also QB play for the Huskers has been up and down the last few season. Lastly, UM won this one in 2014 so they aren’t afraid of the talent Nebraska has on paper. 7-0
- WC – Theme of the story, tight wins one year followed by tight losses the next. Last year’s final was 28-24. 3-4
- P – I’m not sold on the talent Nebraska has returning or how it will fit in Mike Riley’s new system. I expect them to take a step back in 2015. W, 24-17, 6-1 (3-0)
Michigan
- BC – Gophers hit number 5 in the rankings and get on the cover of Sports Illustrated. 8-0
- WC – Michigan makes me look like an idiot and is really good. 3-5
- P – Michigan was down right incompetent at times last season. The offense is terrible, they will have a new quarterback and their single best player is in the NFL now. Jim Harbaugh is a good coach. He is not a god. W, 28-20, 7-1 (4-0)
At Ohio State
- BC – Everyone is ready to give Ohio State the league title but they have already had some players suspended. What happens if they have some injuries? Hell, this was only a 7-point game a year ago. Any given Saturday, right? 9-0
- WC – Ohio State lives up to the hype and Minnesota’s questions on offense are never answered en route to a disappointing regression season. 3-6
- P – Nasty defense and crafty coaching work against so-so teams, but like the TCU tilt, the talent gap is way to great for UM to overcome. L, 31-21, 7-2 (4-1)
At Iowa
- BC – UM won this one 51-14 a season ago and it didn’t even feel that close. Holy hell they might make the final four! 10-0
- WC – Hawks had won the previous 2 and since 2001 owned the series 10-3 before last year’s tilt. I think it was the perfect storm of Minnesota playing great, Iowa playing like crap and UM fueled by anger. Hawks are the surprise team in the league and take this home game. 3-7
- P – This game was a comedy of errors for Iowa in the second quarter giving up 28 points after a competitive opening frame. It seems unlikely for UM to rush for 300 yards again, score 51 points and have Leidner toss 4 TD passes again (3 were to, of course, Maxx Williams). All that said, I don’t think Iowa is the better team on paper. This will be a heavyweight tilt that the Gophers cling to late. W, 13-10, 8-2 (5-1)
Illinois
- BC – Illinois’ bowl team turns bust the next year as a confident gang of Gopher’s can taste the Big Ten title game and the College Football Tournament. 11-0
- WC – I think Illinois was fools gold a year ago. I expect them to be pathetic and Tim Beckman (who has not gotten an extension) to be searching the wanted section soon. 4-7
- P – Relying on one of the league’s best defenses, Minnesota breaks the 8-win plateau finally with a great showing against a sub-par foe. W, 28-3, 9-2 (6-1)
Wisconsin
- BC – The unthinkable. Gopher’s make a 2002 style Ohio State journey relying on the best defense in the nation to go along with some timely scoring to scrap their way to an undefeated season. 12-0
- WC – A regression year due to a lackluster offense. Minnesota fans still remember how far Kill has brought them so there is no chatter at all about his job security. 4-8
- P – Wisconsin’s offensive line is too good for Minnesota’s defensive line. The problem with great linebackers is that they either need to guess right or make the tackle 5-6 yards down field. Either way that favors a great running team like the Badgers. Just a tough match up right now for UM until they get better in the front. L, 24-14, 9-3 (6-2)
Final Notes
The best case and the prediction are hinging on two things. The first is the defense isn’t merely good, but one of the league’s best – as in top 3. The second is that Leidner plays like a veteran and doesn’t turn the ball over making the offense reliable. It won’t be flashy but it won’t be a liability, either. Losing Cobb hurts, but as we’ve seen running backs can be replaced, especially if the offensive line is strong, so while that might hurt them the first few games, by league play I expect the Gopher ground attack to be respectable. 8-12 wins is doable based on the ease of the schedule, they just need a strong season from Mitch. That sound you just heard was Gopher nation groaning.
Big Ten and Counting 