Let’s kick off 2015 with a team and coach in need of some luck. After an outstanding 2012 season at Kent State, Purdue hired Darrell Hazell. Hazell has worked for some of the best in the game, including stints at Rutgers under Greg Schiano and OSU under Jim Tressel before becoming the head man at KSU. A career spent on the offensive side of the ball gave hope to Boilermaker fans that they were returning to the fun days of Joe Tiller. Instead they sat through a brutal 1-11 (0-8) 2013 and an ugly 3-9 (1-7) 2014. Avoiding an 0-16 start in league play may have saved Hazell’s job but between an easy schedule and a quarterback three years in-system, Purdue has to show signs of life in 2015 otherwise they will be on the hunt for a new coach come December.
Offensively it was a, ahem, train wreck. 103rd in passing, 73rd in rushing and 98th in points per game. Seven times they failed to hit 20 points and they lost all of them. Defensively they were 99th in points per game allowed but considering the offense was so anemic, it stands to reason that a better offense will be on the field more and score more, thus allowing a so-so defense to be less of a liability. Considering Hazell has made a lot of money coaching offense, this seems like the best strategy to pull Purdue out of this multi year tail spin and save his job.
The best news for Purdue fans has to be some of the close calls a season ago Despite the unsightly final tally (and losing the final 6 in a row) there were some close calls. They were competitive with Notre Dame, lost in Minneapolis by a point, lost to Indiana by 5 and gave Michigan State all they could handle in East Lansing en route to 31 points dropped on the mighty Spartan defense. Flip the Gopher and Hoosier games and they were 5-7. Steal either of the Irish/MSU games and this team slipped into a bowl. That is the hope this year and I think with some better luck, the schedule may allow it.
2015 Schedule
At Marshall
Best Case – Thundering Herd no longer have all-star qb Rakeem Kato. The new look offense can’t compete with a Big Ten defense. 1-0
Worst Case – Doc Holiday has been to 3 bowls since 2010 at Marshall. They are 23-5 the last two seasons. They weren’t all Kato a season ago either, posting the 18th best paa defense. 0-1
Prediction – This is a tough one because Purdue split against MAC schools a season ago and Marshall, even without Kato, is better than a MAC squad. There is a history of big schools going into Huntington and losing. I think an early stumble, wakes this team up and brings them together. L, 24-21, 0-1
Indiana State
BC – Purdue was defeated their lone FCS team a year ago. 2-0
WC – ISU did go a respectable 8-6 last season, but there’s a reason Purdue schedules this game. 1-1
P – W, 35-10, 1-1
Virginia Tech
BC – Tech’s offense was almost as bad as Purdue’s last year, highlighted by a 6-3 loss…in double overtime…to Wake Forest. 3-0
WC – Tech also went to a bowl game (and won) as well as boast a usual Beamer/Foster highly rated defense. 1-2
P – Call me crazy, but as much as I like Frank Beamer, I can’t help but feel we are seeing the Hayden Fry / Bobby Bowden end where the game has just passed him by. The recruiting isn’t as strong and the team just isn’t as good week in and week out. I think Purdue finds a way to make up for the Marshall let down with a huge home victory. W, 28-24, 2-1
Bowling Green
BC – Bowling Green’s defense was one of the nation’s worst a season ago. Holy smokes Purdue is undefeated heading into league play! 4-0
WC – The Falcons had one of the strangest 2014 seasons. It started several months before that with Dave Clawson getting the Wake job. Dino Babers was hired to replace him. The defending MAC champs had a loaded roster but the heart and soul was qb Matt Johnson. He was injured the opening week. Suddenly a new coach had a back up quarterback were tasked with leading them and yet they rallied to 7-5 (5-3) and won their division. Northern Illinois got revenge in the MAC title game but BG won their bowl to finish 8-6. Along the way they beat Indiana but gave up 40+ six times yet won two of those games! Strange team, strange season but still successful. 1-3
P – Bowling Green will not be a fun team to play, especially if Matt Johnson returns to 2013 form (although James Knapke was good a season ago) but this is still manageable, especially at home. W, 42-31, 3-1
At Michigan State
BC – I realize they went pretty much toe-to-toe with MSU a season ago, but the undefeated start ends here. 4-1
WC – Austin Appleby shows, yet again, he is not a major college level talent under center. 1-4
P – Even without Pat Narduzzi, I still think MSU has one of the best coaching staffs in the league, if not the nation. They return a plethora of talent, none bigger than Connor Cook. L, 45-24, 3-2 (0-1)
Minnesota
BC – Gophers exceeded expectations in many ways a season ago, helped by some tight wins including a one-pointer over Purdue. PU gets revenge at home and is one win away from a bowl. 5-1
WC – The 8-5 Gopher season was just foreshadowing for a breakthrough 2015 and Mitch Leidner becomes one of the league’s best QBs. 1-5
P – Minnesota is a strange team to handicap. On one hand, Jerry Kill has a proven track record and has now gone to three straight bowls with the Gophers. On the other hand, I don’t think Leidner is a very good quarterback and their outstanding running back David Cobb is now a Tennessee Titan. Much like the Marshall game, I think this is winnable but I’m going with the more proven coaching commodity in Kill. L, 35-31, 3-3 (0-2)
At Wisconsin
BC – New coach, new running back, no clear quarterback talent, no problem. Wisconsin has a proven system running the ball that Paul Chryst helped develop. Bowl chatter waits some more. 5-2
WC – A humiliating loss gets Hazell canned like Lane Kiffin at the airport. 1-6
P – Despite all the unknowns swirling in Madison, I still think this is the best team in the division and Camp Randall is house of horrors for a lot of teams. L, 42-17, 3-4 (0-3)
Nebraska
BC – New coach, new running back, no clear quarterback talent, could be a problem. It is really unclear how good this Nebraska team can be. Purdue’s bounce back to relevance takes an unexpected turn as they knock off the Huskers at home to clinch a bowl. 6-2
WC – The wheels officially come off, if they weren’t already missing. 1-7
P – On paper, Tommy Armstrong jr at QB combined with some defensive talent like Maliek Collins, Daniel Davey, Vincent Valentine and Michael Rose-Ivey (back from injury that cost him 2014) makes this team formidable. Unfortunately, Ameer Abdullah is gone, Armstrong takes a lot of hits as a mobile qb and this defense was ranked 60th last year. I’m not sure Ivey makes up that much for them. Huge, huge home win sets up an amazing stretch of games to try and make a bowl. W, 27-24, 4-4 (1-3)
Illinois
BC – Ignore making a bowl, Purdue is staying close to Wisconsin for the division. 7-2
WC – Purdue killed them a season ago, yet Illinois still made a bowl. Illini use 2014 as a stepping stone at Purdue’s expense in 2015. 1-8
P – Illinois couldn’t run the ball a lick a season ago and their defense was one of the worst in the nation. I think the bowl was fools gold and Purdue’s slow rebuild is more of a sure thing. Oh, PU also dominated this game a season ago. W, 35-21, 5-4 (2-3)
At Northwestern
BC – If Pat Fitzgerald wasn’t a beloved alum, you think more people would be talking about the fact they are 10-14 and just 4-12 in league the last two seasons? Purdue enters the top 20 with a blowout victory. 8-2
WC – Northwestern owned Purdue last season despite being a pretty bad team. 1-9
P – Remember 2012 when NU won 10 games and everyone thought they were going places. Then in 2013 they went 5-7 but had a million injuries and people said 2014 they would return to form. What form did they return to? They were much healthier and yet still posted a 5-win season. I think Fitz is a good personality and fires his team up, much in the same way Paul Rhodes does with Iowa State. Notice I did not compliment either coach’s Xs and Os? Bowl bound for Purdue. W, 28-17, 6-4 (3-3)
At Iowa
BC – There’s a real chance Iowa falls apart completely and goes about 2-10. Purdue meanwhile keeps forcing Wisconsin to win. 9-2
WC – As bad as Iowa looked at times a season ago, they did still win 7 games and were competitive in some of their losses. They also stuffed Purdue pretty good a year ago, holding them to just 156 yards and 10 points. 1-10
P – I have told people Iowa is going 2-10 this year and their wins were North Texas and then some combo of Indiana/Illinois/Purdue since they can’t get swept by all three. I think I am using hyperbole to underscore how much disdain I have for Greg Davis and some of the coaching decisions of Kirk Ferentz. In reality, Iowa had three new linebackers a season ago. Struggled to get the running game going and had inner turmoil over a quarterback controversy. Well the linebackers are older, Mark Weisman is gone so as long as his replacement sees holes, the running game will be better and Jake Ruddock left town so hopefully the QB picture is clear(er?). All this adds up to Purdue’s magical season having a bit of a let down on the road in a manageable game. L, 28-14, 6-5 (3-4)
Indiana
BC – Boilermakers can’t catch Wisconsin as they lost the head-to-head but ten wins gets them to a New Year’s bowl and the end the season in the top 15. 10-2
WC – Hoosiers won this game a year ago. With nothing to play for and their coach long since canned, Purdue lays another egg and goes winless in league for the second time in three years. 1-11
P – Lost in Indiana’s shaky 4-8 2014 is the fact that the Nate Sudfeld injury killed them. He’s one of the better qbs in league and brought balance to the team. The balance in turn allowed Tevin Coleman to run wild. I know Coleman is now in the Falcon organization at the next level, but coach Kevin Wilson has generated a lot of yards and points as an OC and at times at Indiana. If Sudfeld stays healthy, I think Indiana can be a bowl team. Purdue has another disappointing end to the year, but they still make a bowl game and show signs of things to come in 2016 and beyond. L, 31-21, 6-6 (3-5).
Final Notes
Maybe I am being too optimistic having Purdue score an upset over Nebraska and Virginia Tech but those are home games and Purdue had close calls a year ago. The bottom line is it is year three for this coaching staff. It is time to shape up or ship out. If they can’t win at least a few home games against mediocre squads like Indiana, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota and Virginia Tech then what the hell are they building? Nothing. That’s why I think this team has some what of a breakthrough in 2015. They had a pulse last year, now it is time to get off the map and steal a few games.
Big Ten and Counting 