The once mighty Maryland basketball team had a strange final tour of the ACC before joining the Big Ten. It actually started a year before in 2012-13 when they were 13-1 (1-0) before the bottom fell apart en route to an 8-10 league mark. They rallied in the NIT to make the semifinals before falling to Iowa. Despite the loss of Alex Len there was still plenty of talent for 2013-14. The season never materialized. A 5-4 non-conference start gave way to an equally mediocre 9-9 league mark. The Terps stayed home last spring and switched leagues. A rather quiet end to a lot of history. There was talent again for 2014-15 but how flat the team was last year, it was unclear how it would perform. Several weeks into the season the Terps are 11-1 and nationally ranked. Questions still remain, after all the start two years ago ended in the NIT but so far Maryland is exceeding all expectations and looking like a contender.
Five players are gone from last season – a large number – but none of them are world beaters. Seth Allen, now at Virginia Tech, was the biggest contributor at 13.4 ppg, a couple boards and 3 assists per but he was always second fiddle to Dez Wells and didn’t have as many tools as Jake Layman. Nick Faust, a Baltimore kid, is now on the opposite coast at Long Beach State. His 9.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg and 2.0 agp were nice addition in under 30 minutes a game but his numbers were actually down from 2012-13. He will be missed, but his numbers aren’t that hard to replace. Charles Mitchell (Georgia Tech), Roddy Peters (USF) and Shaquille Cleare (Texas) have also moved on from the program. None of them were huge contributors but Cleare is a raw 6’9″ big man freshman.
As mentioned, the keys to the Maryland car are in Dez Wells’ hands again. The leading scorer from last year’s team (14.9 ppg) also hit the glass (4.3) and dished a little (2.2) from his guard-forward positioning. Perhaps the reason for Maryland’s hot start can be traced to Wells actually improving on all his numbers through this start. Layman, another guard-forward, has also seen his numbers jump. 11.7 ppg a year ago to go along with 5 boards and .9 assists have been turned into 15.8/5.7/1.9. At 6’8″ he is much more of a true forward than the 6’5″ Wells.
Other returning talent can be started with a name familiar to Big Ten fans: Evan Smotrycz. The former Michigan player is a true stretch four. He attempted the second most threes on the team (to Layman) and averaged 11 ppg / 6 rpg a year ago. A scary thought is that UM is off to such a start without anything from Smotrycz. He’s missed a lot of time with a foot injury. If he can be healthy after the new year, getting him back would be like a late season trade in the NBA. Another forward, Damonte Dodd, played sparingly as a freshman a year ago but his 6’9″, 240 frame is a great difference maker to a team that plays guard-forwards and stretch fours. Another experienced player to help during the Smotrycz injury period is Jonathan Graham. The rebounding specialist played about 10 minutes a game as a reserve but still hauled in 2.4 boards a game in such a short time last year.
The deep bench includes Spencer Barks, Varun Ram, Jacob Susskin, Jon Graham and Trevor Anzmann. Barring an unheard of amount of injuries, these players will only bee seen in blowouts. The way Maryland has been playing, fans of these players should circle the Northwestern and Rutgers dates.
The incoming class has brought new blood to a club that had started to feel stale. The jewel of the class was Romelo (Melo) Trimble, a five-star / 90 grade / 29th overall / #7 position shooting guard who stayed with his home state team. His impact has been immediate with 15.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg and 3.1 apg. He is averaging 31 minutes a night so a pessimist would bring up the freshman wall but such a highly touted recruit has been playing a million minutes for AAU and prep teams for years. More guard help has come from Dion Wiley, another Maryland kid. He was “only” a 4-star, 86 grade, 52 overall recruit in the nation. He has been averaging 6.8 and 2.5 rpg in 20 minutes of work this season.
The impressive class is deeper still. 4-star, 7-footer Michal Cekovsky had offers from UConn, Louisville, Arizona, Florida and more but headed to College Park. Like most big men he will be a project but he is getting some experience early on with 17 minutes a game right now. 3-star guard-forward Jared Nickens may come with the least buzz but he was instant offense as a prep and looks to bring the same. His wingspan makes him a nice defensive player as he learns that craft for college-level talent.
Adding to the depth of the guard situation is North Carolina A&T transfer Richaud Park. Park brings a ton of experience for the young backcourt. He averaged 17 points and 4.6 rpg a year ago and ate up almost 35 minutes a night. He won’t be asked to do as much for this loaded team but it is a nice addition already and if the freshman start to play like freshman or injuries occur he provides a great safety net. Transfer Robert Carter (Georgia Tech) will sit this season per NCAA rules.
Best Case
We are already seeing it. The experience of Layman and Wells meshes with Trimble to become a contender right away. Wins over Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Arizona State show they can beat power league level clubs at an alarming rate. With just two currently ranked Big Ten clubs (OSU and Wisconsin) outside this Maryland team, the Terps’ hot streak continues well into January (play OSU on the 29th) and they finish with 14 to 16 league wins and about 26 or so total. Solid NCAA seed and a run to the second weekend follows. Maryland basketball is back.
Worst Case
The 2012-13 season happens again where the hot start cannot be sustained. OSU and ASU wins are okay but neither is expected to make waves in their conferences. The ISU win is the only thing Maryland is resting their hat on. They also looked shaky against Virginia. That is what naysayers would argue.
Prediction
In addition to a great recruiting class and solid veterans; led by potential POTY Dez Wells, the Terps also enjoy an easy schedule. Of the perceived top dogs, they only play one twice (Michigan State). That’s right, Wisconsin once and Ohio State once. The Badger game is at home too. Even mid level hopefuls like Minnesota, Illinois and Michigan are played just once. This team is a lock for 9-9 but more realistically will hit double digit wins pretty quickly in league play. They were probably NCAA bound even before the hot start but how this team gelled so quickly they have a real shot at even greater glory: winning the league.
Big Ten and Counting 