After a fantastic run to the national title game in 2012-2013, Michigan saw a lot of talent head to the NBA. Like many big time programs though they reloaded rather than rebuild. 2013-2014 was another fun one as they won 23 regular season games, two more in the Big Ten tourney. Their return trip to the Final Four was dashed though by a 3 point loss to Kentucky in the Elite Eight. Still, 28-9 (15-3) is a fantastic season by any measurement. Once again though, several key pieces are off to the pros. So can Michigan reload for a third season or will they finally be rebuilding?
The biggest names gone from Michigan’s roster were some of the biggest stars of the league last year. Nik Stauskas led the team in minutes, scoring (17.5) and assists (3.3) but also hauled in 2.9 rpg and stretched teams with a blistering 44.2% three-point percentage. Glenn Robinson III was the second leading scorer, hauled in over four boards a night as a guard and dished 1.2 apg. More of a slasher than the sharp-shooting Stauskas, their games complimented each other’s skill sets nicely. Mitch McGary, the star of the 2012-3 run played just eight games last year but between a bad back and a marijuana arrest he was a non-factor. The fact all three are on NBA rosters goes to show just how good Michigan was (or in the case of McGary’s lost 2013-4 what might have been) with this core.
The stars aren’t the only pieces gone. The old reliable Jordan Morgan led the team in rebounds (McGary would have but that’s life) and helped chip in a little on the scoring a season ago (6.4 ppg). Jon Horford used the graduate school transfer rule to immediately play at Florida. Despite the famous last name, especially for Florida fans, Horford never really factored in while in Ann Arbor with just 3.8 ppg in under 14 minutes of action. His rebounding will probably be the biggest loss as he managed to average over 4 boards a night in limited play. Walk-ons Cole McConnell and Brad Anlauf are not on this year’s roster.
Helping fill the huge shoes in the backcourt will be Chris LeVert. The 6’7″ junior had very similar numbers to Robinson III last season and is on fire to start the year with 18.6, nearly 6 boards and four and a half assists. He is expected to be yet another NBA player this time next year. The way his junior year has started replace “expected” with “going.” Derrick Walton Jr. played nearly 27 minutes a night last year and was just under 8 ppg. He averaged 3 boards and assists per contest also. It is easy to be flip and just plug another piece in but with LeVert having the talent to score like Stauskus, replacing Robinson’s numbers is not like curing cancer. He was a solid player, but not a Carmelo-like difference maker so it really is a little bit of plug and play for Michigan. If Walton Jr. can’t replace GR3, Zak Irvin could be the answer. Irvin is more of a guard-forward at 6’6″ 215 versus Walton’s true guard 6’0″ 185 frame. Irvin averaged just 6.7 ppg but has exploded this season with 16.1 through Michigan’s 6-2 start. Of course there is also 2013 title game darling Spike Albrecht. The mad bomber only averaged 3.3 ppg and 2 assists last year in less than 15 minutes a night but he is playing more early and already doubling his scoring, rebounds and assists. His deep range must also be honored by any defender.
The returning talent goes deeper still. Max Bielfeldt played sparingly last year but the senior forward is seeing the floor this year. If there is any weakness to Michigan’s team it is front court depth-experience. Bielfeldt helps with that and his 18 points against Bucknell shows that if he has to step up for any reason, he can expand his game as needed. Sean Lonergan will struggle to find playing time again this year with so many good guards above him but the kid is only a sophomore. Andrew Dakich played just 24 minutes last year but got the privilege of playing in front of his dad, ESPN broadcaster Dan Dakich.
So with a run to the title game followed by an Elite Eight run the freshman class is pretty good? You would assume wisely, captain obvious. To start, a pair of four-star recruits lead the way. Kameron Chatman will help with the forward situation (and possibly let Irvin slide down the four which will prevent his shaky three point shooting becoming a factor). The 6’7″ small forward was graded as an 88, the 38th best player, the 11th at his position and turned down offers from the likes of Arizona and defending champ UConn to go to Michigan. A more natural forward solution, Mark Donnal, comes to campus as an 82 grade, 89 overall player, 23 position and is a 6’8″ power forward. His recruiting decision was pretty easy since he has been committed to the Maize and Blue since 2011.
Another key piece will be Ricky Doyle who was going to redshirt before the front court took some hits with Horford and McGary’s departures. The 3-star 6’9″ center was rated as the 9th best player in his home state – basketball rich Florida. He’ll be a factor down the line, but this year he adds to the depth and size Michigan would have lacked with him red shirting. A project like Doyle is found in another 3-star big, D.J. Wilson. The kid is a 6’8″ rail right now but has absurd length and once a college workout routine gets him buff, he could be a key cog in future Michigan teams. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman is an interesting guard prospect. He scored over 2,000 points in his prep career but received no power league offers in the mountain of scholarships mailed to him. Michigan offered late in the game during his senior year but considering Beilein’s track record with late signings, this could be a diamond in the rough down the line.
Aubrey Dawkins, son of Duke standout and current Stanford coach Johnny Dawkins, is a two or three star recruit depending on what service you look at. The 6’5″ small forward won’t play too much this season but based on being a little small for that position in college, he could use the time to develop his shot and then be a big guard next year. Duncan Robinson is a division III transfer and must sit this year. He became the first freshman at his school to ever score 500 points. Hard to know if this will keep up against Big Ten talent, but it could be a nice scoring option next year. Lastly is feel-good story Austin Hatch. This young man was signed in 2011 but a few days after committing, he was in his second plane crash. It took countless hours of rehab for him to get back but John Beilein honored his scholarship offer. This amazing story will come full circle if he can get out and play. He was a damn good prospect in his prep career with 23.3 points and 9.3 boards as an AAU sophomore before his crash.
Best Case
Michigan is already 6-2 and even if they drop the Arizona game this week they will finish the non-con at 9-3. They could realistically be 4-0 in leave when they head to Ohio State January 13th. If they drop that one they should still be sitting very pretty at 6-1 in league when they host Wisconsin – a game that could have Big Ten title implications early on. From February 2nd on they get their toughest games at home (MSU and OSU) with only one real road trip (Maryland) standing in the way of a strong finish. Their backcourt of LeVert, Walton Jr. and flex player Irvin was already strong but the addition standout SF Chatman really gives this club a ton of options for line ups and scoring. They are very young and that might cost them a game or two in league, but their schedule is favorable with the late stretch and only facing Wisconsin once. 13, 14 or even 15 league wins seems like a real possibility. Either way it will be a high finish, a good seed for Indy and a great seed for the NCAAs.
Worst Case
Even if the youth costs them some games, it is almost impossible to see this team losing six or more league games. They are a lock for the NCAAs unless some crazy injuries happen.
Prediction
The biggest thing I am curious about is how Irvin will workout with Chatman being taller than him but Irvin’s lack of three-point shooting. The good news is the coaching staff is paid to figure that out. Experience is a concern and some of the front court depth is a worry if foul trouble bites them in a tournament game but those are issues down the line. For the regular season, I don’t see how this team finishes lower than 5th or 6th. I don’t see how they win fewer than 13 league games and I don’t see how they miss the NCAAs. Anything less than the second weekend of the dance will be stunning.
Big Ten and Counting 