A five-game swoon to end calendar year 2013 and start 2014 dropped NU to 8-8 (0-4). An upset of Ohio State seemed to spark Tim Miles’ crew as they would rip through the remaining schedule to finish 19-11 (11-7). Even a loss in the Big Ten Tournament wasn’t enough to prevent Nebraska making the NCAAs because their second half push included upsets of MSU, Wisconsin and the mentioned OSU game. A disappointing loss to Baylor ended the season at 19-13 but the growth was seen. For a program that struggled mightily to compete in the Big 12, Nebraska has turned over a new leaf. The recruiting is a little better and the brand new facilities are a lot better. The question now is if the Huskers can do what they never did in the Big 12 – put good seasons together back-to-back.
The key to reversing the trend of one step forward, two steps back for NU can be found in who they are returning versus who they are losing. Of the departing talent, there isn’t too much worry. The biggest blow will be Deverell Biggs averaged 9.9 ppg and 3.3 rpg as a skilled 6’1″ guard but he was dismissed from the program middle of last season and headed off to Texas State. Ray Gallegos graduated from the school and although his numbers and playing time dipped significantly from 2012-2013 to last year, he was a veteran presence for the Huskers. Three other deep bench players have also moved on. Nathan Hawkins is now at UT-Arlington, Sergej Vucetic is at Evansville and Mike Peltz has graduated. Vucetic was a seven-footer but other than defensive situations out of him, it’s hard to see how either transfer is a negative.
So who is the talent from a 19-win, NCAA Nebraska team coming back that is so exciting? Well it starts with the one-two punch of Terran Petteway and Shavon Shields. Petteway is a beast of a 6’6″ forward. He averaged over 18 points a game, nearly 5 boards and a couple assists per. His three point shooting wasn’t outstanding but it kept teams honest. His free throw shooting was very strong for a big. His points, boards and assists are up in the early going but some of his percentages and turnover rate has gotten worse through the seven games NU has played this year. Still, he is one of the league’s best players and is 3.9 turnovers really that big a deal when you play 35 minutes and score 21 points a game? Shields is a 6’7″ Guard-Forward who averaged 12.8 and 5.8 boards last year. Through the early season all his numbers are improved but the scariest thing is how his shooting percentages have jumped. It is difficult to see him averaging 56.6% for the season but to steal an NBA term, Shields has “made the leap.”
Walter Pitchford is back after a nice 2013 in which he averaged 9.3 but was willing to take the three despite being a 6’10” forward/center. It is still early but his shooting percentages have fallen hard this season. NU is 5-2 without much from him, can you imagine how good they could be if he rights his game? Tai Webster is a 6’4″ guard who played a decent amount as a freshman last year. 3.9 ppg, 2.0 apg and 2.1 rpg aren’t setting the world ablaze but to do that in a little over 20 minutes a night isn’t bad. As he gets better in the American game (he is a New Zealand product), the more he can contribute. Webster should be an impact player as an upper clansman with his decent size and athleticism but anything he gives you now is just icing on the cake. David Rivers takes over the “glue guy” senior title of Gallegos. Still early in the season but the 6’7″ forward has been ripping down 5.1 rebounds per while only playing 26.9 minutes a night. 5’9″ Benny Parker saw his playing time slashed as a sophomore (nearly 6 minutes less) but he has been a key cog through the first seven games this year. He and Webster will be battling it out for the point guard position as most of the other starting spots are filled. The returning cast is rounded out by senior guard Trevor Menke and senior walk-on center Kye Kurkowski.
With a lot of returning talent, it will be hard for the fresh faces to make too much of a dent this year. The most promising of the group are Jacob Hammond and Nick Fuller. Hammond is a 6’8″ center who was a 77 grade and turned down an offer from home state Oklahoma to go to Lincoln. Fuller is a 79 graded 6’7″ small forward who had offers from fellow Big Ten programs Illinois and Minnesota before joining the building program in the Husker state. 2-star recruit Tarin Smith is a 6’2″ point guard who should be able to develop behind Webster and Parker to become a factor in a couple seasons. B.J. Day joins as a walk-on and Moses Abraham is a graduate school transfer from Georgetown. The 6’9″ economics graduate provides some much-needed depth to the forward position. After Petteway and Pitchford Miles would have had to go to one of those freshman. Abraham at least has a college body and some experience.
The other reason Abraham is such a key addition is the injury to Leslee Smith. Smith was a 6’8″ reserve but tore his ACL in the summer. Kansas transfer Andrew White will also sit the year due to the NCAA transfer rules.
Best Case
Huskers have been blessed with a very easy non-conference slate. They have taken advantage of it to go 5-2 so far. They lost in overtime to Rhode Island, a loss that will hurt the resume if they are a bubble team, but the other loss to Creighton isn’t bad. They can knock off a decent AAC club in Cincinnati on the 13th to help come selection time. Realistically they should be 8-2 before kicking off league play. Once there they host five of their first seven. Holding home serve against Indiana, Rutgers, Illinois and Minnesota is do able. Frankly the way MSU has looked at times this season, even that late January game could be a win. In the back end they host Northwestern and Iowa as well as travel to Penn State and Purdue in what looks like the most manageable games. Without factoring any upsets, eight great shots at wins have already been listed. Finding three more to match last year’s 11-win mark shouldn’t be too difficult with Petteway and Shields leading the way. The question now is, can this club do any damage in Indianapolis or the NCAAs.
Worst Case
Lack of experience depth and a weaker point guard situation than most of the teams in the league can doom seasons. The Pett/Shields combo won’t allow a true doom-scenario, but those weakness could cause just enough losses against similarly talented teams (i.e. Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota and Maryland) to keep Nebraska from getting to double-digit league wins. Based on the very soft non-conference, it seems unlikely for NU to make the NCAAs without 10+ Big ten wins. This keeps NU from making back-to-back dances and while the NIT wasn’t too bad in year’s past it would be a disappointment this time around.
Prediction
A lot of “where did they come from?” teams have fall back seasons the next year. Combined with the issues surrounding the guard court and the bench, it would be easy to pick NU to regress but I’m not. Pitchford will come around and Rivers is enjoying his expanded role, not to mention the pair of stars leading the team. By the time the dust settles, I think Nebraska can improve on last year’s run. Those home games against IU, RU, Ill, Minne, MSU, NU, Iowa, Maryland are all enticing. Outside the Wisconsin game, there is a chance Nebraska could run the table at home in league. Considering they upset UW a year ago, even that one could be on the table. A full sweep is nine wins. Road trips to Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Penn State, Maryland, OSU and Illinois easily have the two or three wins in them to match last year’s 11-win mark. Nebraska isn’t good enough, especially on the bench, to do something big like 14-4 or 15-3 to win the title, but I don’t see how they dip below the double-digit mark. Hate saying the NCAAs are a lock, but barring injury to one of their starters, I find it difficult to envision a bracket without them.
Big Ten and Counting 