Thanks to one of the softest non-conference slates, Purdue started last season out 10-3 before the club was exposed in league play. At 15-10 (5-7) they were still a NIT threat if they could hold it together. They did not. A six game skid dropped them to 15-16 (5-13) with an opening loss in the Big Ten tournament to run that streak to seven and end the season. The once proud Boilermaker program suffered its first back-to-back losing season streak in nearly a decade. With the possibility of a third consecutive sub-.500 mark, the question now is if Matt Painter will be given another year to try and right the ship.
If Purdue is to have a bounce back year it will be without some of the few bright spots of last year’s campaign. Terone Johnson was a reliable veteran guard who chipped in 12 points a night to go along with almost 4 boards and 2.5 assists. Ronnie Johnson, another guard, is also gone via a transfer to Houston. He led the team in assists (3.7) but also helped on the glass (2.8) and was the second leading scorer at 10.8 ppg. Graduate program transfers Sterling Carter and Errick Peck take their experience and contributions to the workforce as their time is done. Sadly Jay Simpson’s career is also done due to a heart condition. Lastly Travis Carroll has graduated. He saw a fair amount of action in 2011 but saw his minutes dip every year since.
With the Johnson and Johnson show gone, this team will rely heavily on A.J. Hammons. The seven-footer has already earned some NBA glances and nearly averaged a double-double last season. He is a proven commodity already but if he can take the leap, Purdue could finally post a winning record. The concern of course is with a thinned out backcourt, who will get the ball to him? One answer is sophomore guard Kendall Stephens. He averaged 20 minutes and 8 points a game last year but like most young players he was up and down as the season went on. His shooting has to improve for him to become a bigger threat. Bryson Scott, another sophomore guard, was a bundle of energy last season. In 16 minutes a night he would score a little (6.2), rebound a little (2.6) and dish the ball a little (1.4) but turnovers were an issue, averaging 1.4 a contest. Rapheal Davis is a lengthy guard who was similar to Scott last season. His numbers in rebounding and assists weren’t as good but he did score more and turn the ball over less.
Other returning players are Basil Smotherman, a 6’6″ forward who cannot shoot the three well enough to be a stretch four. Despite playing a fair bit last year, it is difficult to see him as a viable solution due to his lack of size. Stephen Toyra (30 minutes total in 2013), Joel McKeeman (10 minutes), Anfernee Brown (9 minutes) and Neal Beshears (12 minutes) round out the deep part of the bench.
If the Train sounds a little weak right now, don’t worry. Painter has always been a solid recruiter and the incoming class has the potential to boost this program. First up to help Hammons down low is 6’7″ Vince Edwards. Sitting at 89 in the top 100, Edwards was a beast on the glass as well as a solid passer in high school. His 20+ points per game as a prep will undoubtedly come down but his rebounding and passing ability will make him a valuable player as he discovers a way to score against the beefed up competition of college. Another four-star recruit, Isaac Haas, is a 7’0″ center prospect rated 87th in the top 100. Rivals had him as high as 71st. He won’t beat out Hammons but A.J. was not a 30 minute a night guy anyway so Haas will find plenty of minutes. One option could be to go huge and play 14 feet of height in the paint. Dakota Mathias comes to Purdue as a 3-star prospect at shooting guard. With nothing set in stone other than Hammons down low, Mathais could push for a starting gig. Fellow freshman guard, P.J. Thompson, could also earn plenty of minutes. After all Stephens, Scott and Davis have very little job security against the freshman thanks to the awful results of 203-2014.
There are two other players come to Painter’s club. First is 6’9″ PF Jacquil Taylor. It will be interesting to see how the second forward position’s minutes get dolled out between Smotherman, Edwards and Taylor. It seems like Smotherman will be the odd man out due to his lack of size and no deep threat. It then comes down to who will start between Edwards and Taylor. Edwards has the buzz but Taylor is taller. Painter is also on record about Taylor’s perimeter shot possibly stretching the court. The other new comer is Colorado State transfer Jon Octeus. He was a starting guard for the Rams and with the backcourt appearing to be wide open, his experience could land him a key role for his new school.
Best Case
Purdue has nine home games in the non-conference and just one true road trip to Vanderbilt. It is possible to win all 10 putting them in great shape early. The Maui Invitational puts them against Kansas State in game one and either Arizona or Missouri in game two. The other half of the bracket is a lot easier so even if they flub in those games, they can still win a game or two out in Hawaii. League play though is a little tougher to sort out. Maryland, Indiana, Rutgers and Illinois at home look like the most manageable home dates while Northwestern, Rutgers and Indiana look like the best hopes at road wins. Sweeping them all without a single upset in the other league games would be at least 7-11 mark, already an improvement from last year. Factor in the possibility of 12 non-con wins they could sniff 20 wins for everything to break their way. For this to happen, they must have the players orbiting Hammons play great ball as well as have the big man step up. He is their one true star and must play like it. He has to see this is a 30 game audition for the NBA. His size has earned the eye of the scouts but his play will get the franchises to invest.
Worst Case
The returning talent is mediocre like last year and the freshman play like, well, freshman. The soft non-conference slate pads the win loss but a dismal league record dooms Painter. He gets tossed at the end of the season.
Prediction
It is a lot easier to foresee success when building from the outside in. Purdue will be doing the opposite this season. Their best players are all in the paint but they can’t play them all and they can’t bring the rock up. Purdue should be better than last year, but the growth of their team has not matched the improvement of the programs above them. The easy non-con should give them enough wins to avoid a sub .500 mark overall, but it is difficult to see this team hitting 9-9 in league play.
Big Ten and Counting 