Illinois vs Penn State
PSU -6.5, Over / Under 45.5
Penn State exploded for 247 rushing yards against Temple last week. Illinois’ defense is the worst against the rush in the league. Against Temple’s respectable defense, PSU put up 30 points while Illinois gave up 30 (though Iowa should have scored more based on yardage). This has me taking the over. I think PSU’s defense will shut them down, much like Iowa’s did, but Illinois is still capable of scoring 10-14 points. That means PSU only needs to put up 30 some. I don’t love the over but it feels safer based on Illinois’ awful defense.
Indiana at Ohio State
OSU -34.5, O/U 65.5
Hoosier defense is currently 106th in the nation. OSU knows style points go a long way to woo the human vote of the committee. OSU covers easily and scores almost 65 by themselves to get the over.
Iowa vs Wisconsin
UW -10, O/U 51.5
All week people around Iowa City have been talking about how many yards Iowa will give up to Melvin Gordon. The most common answers I have heard are around 250 to 275. That doesn’t bode well. Wisconsin covers but thanks to their fantastic defense, they prevent Iowa from chipping in too much. 35-10 feels like a good score.
Maryland at Michigan
Mich -5, O/U 42
Maryland has been free falling without Stefon Diggs but do you really want to bet on Michigan? They have been playing a little better and have a lot on the line for a bowl. I suppose they can win by five. Staying away from that over though, I have zero clue what these teams will do. Very bipolar clubs right now.
Michigan State vs Rutgers
MSU -22, O/U 57
When in doubt, take the Spartans and the over.
Minnesota at Nebraska
NU -10.5, O/U 56.5
Hungry Gophers will keep this tight with the shell shocked Huskers. Don’t know if they win, but I don’t see them losing by double figures. Minnesota’s defense gave up some big plays to mobile J.T. Barrett but Armstrong doesn’t seem to be using his legs as much, I think this is a good sign for Minnesota’s defense and for the under. 28-21, maybe a little lower scoring if the Gopher’s get the upset.
Northwestern at Purdue
Pick ’em, O/U 51
Northwestern has way more to play for so I think they win. Kind of nice not having a spread to worry about. As for the over/under I’m torn. Do you read into the 43 they scored to beat the Irish or do you look at the 10-9 game against Michigan? What about Purdue’s contribution? I’m leaning towards the under because Purdue’s offense has only scored 30 points their last two games combined while NU has played good defensive games against Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. All four teams are better than Purdue.
Lightning Round
Illinois/Penn State – PSU, Over
Indiana/Ohio State – OSU, Over
Iowa/Wisconsin – UW, Under
Maryland/Michigan – Michigan
Michigan State/Rutgers – MSU, Over
Minnesota/Nebraska – Points, Under
Northwestern/Purdue – NU, Under
Big Ten and Counting 