Sparty looked like world beaters at times last year starting 18-1 (7-0) with wins over Kentucky, Ohio State, Minnesota and Oklahoma. From there the grind of league play got to them as they finished 5-7 in their last 12. They regrouped for the Big Ten tournament, won that and then marched confidently to the Sweet 16. A tight win over ACC champs Virginia was followed by a tight loss to eventual champs Connecticut. They ended the year in the Elite 8 with a 29-9 mark. Like always, Michigan State lost some pieces but has plenty of returning talent, impact new players and a hall of fame coach. The question is never if the Spartans will make the dance, it is how long they remain dancing.
The obvious departures are their trio of NBA players: Keith Appling, Adrian Payne and Gary Harris. Harris led the team in scoring but did it all, chipping in on the glass, getting assists and leading the team in steals. He averaged fewer than 2 turnovers a game while playing 32 minutes a game. Kid was legit, no doubt about it. Payne was the second leading scorer and rebounder for Tom Izzo a season ago while Appling confidently ran the show with 4.5 assists a night and maintained a double-digit scoring average.
The other departures…not much of an impact. Kenny Kaminski came off the bench in 31 contests for 12 minutes on average but his scoring and rebounding were minimal. Perhaps being a bit undersized at 6’8″ or his youth caused his lack of production but while his numbers are replaceable, his ability to stretch the floor may be harder to fill. For instance, his explosion for 19 points against Penn State as a stretch-four. He transferred to Miami (OH) after being dismissed from the program. While not a huge loss in the short term, he was a top 100 prospect and could have developed into something.
Even less of an impact than Kaminski are the departures of Alex Gauna (graduation), Russell Byrd (transferred to NAIA school) and Dan Chapman (graduation). All were buried on the bench and none averaged more than 2 points a game.
Like last year’s trio there is a returning three-some that looks to be quite fierce. At guard-forward is 6’6″, 225 pound stud Branden Dawson. He led the team in rebounds last year but did so much more. He dished a few assists every night, garbed some steals every game and blocked a shot a game, all while averaging 11 points per game. His team-leading 61% from the floor is also impressive. Joining him is guard Denzel Valentine. A classic glue guy, his impact is not always seen in his numbers but he can do it all. Last year he scored a little (8 per) rebounded a little (6 per) dished out the second most assists a game, got a steal a game and turned the ball over almost never. Lastly is guard Travis Trice. Despite the worst numbers of this group, he has the most to gain by the departures ahead of him. Even with six minutes a night less than these other two, he made his impact felt with a blistering 43% shooting clip from downtown. He can put it in from anywhere.
The rest of the returning cast is grab bag of role players. Forward Matt Costello seems like the only one of this bunch poised to make much of an impact. He averaged almost 15 minutes a night last season but grabbed 3+ boards on average. As the forward position is a little thin with Payne moving on, his experience as a spot-starter will be counted on down low. Joining Costello as secondary returning talents are Alvin Ellis III, Gavin Schilling, Keenan Wetzal, Trevor Bohnhoff and Colby Wollenman. Ellis and Schilling each got spot playing time as their skills were required for match up purposes and will again this season, but don’t expect a huge breakout from anyone in this group.
The most impactful new face is Cleveland State transfer Bryn Forbes. Although not a gifted defender like Izzo would prefer, he can pour it in as a score-first guard. He averaged 13 points as a freshman and almost 16 points as a sophomore at CSU. His shooting percentages and assists jumped while his turnovers dropped from first year to second year. He is also a high school of Valentine so their games should mesh well. Lourawls Nairn Jr. is a top-100, 4 star recruit is a speedster of a guard. He needs his other skills, chief among them his speed, to offset a tiny 5’10” 170 pound frame. Marvin Clark Jr. is a player built similarly to Dawson. Despite being undersized he likes to muck it up down low. Javon Bess is a smooth shooting small forward who ESPN lists as a 4-star recruit. He fielded offers from Dayton, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Xavier before taking Izzo’s offer. Like most young players in the MSU system he will play a little each night to get a taste and then be called on next year. Similar to what Ellis and Schilling are doing right now. Preferred walk on Kenny Goins will probably redshirt and West Virginia transfer Eron Harris must sit a year. Walk on Matt Van Dyk rounds out the roster.
Best Case
The returning trio blends perfectly with Forbes and Costello turns into an impact center. They breeze through a schedule that features just Duke (a loss already), at Notre Dame in the ACC challenge and the Orlando Classic – where they would probably play Kansas in the title game. They win every non conference game but the Duke one to sit at 13-1. Hosting Maryland, Indiana, Northwestern, Penn State and Purdue all look like locks. Traveling to Rutgers and Northwestern also look like likely wins. That is 7 league wins without even factoring in the more difficult games. Going a solid 8-3 in the other 11 would be a 15-3 mark and another 25+ win season, a 1 or 2 seed and an avenue opens up to make the Final Four.
Worst Case
The returning trio can’t duplicate the numbers of last year’s core three and Costello with the other forward talent never really make much of a dent for Sparty. They lose all three of their tough non-con games to start with about 9 wins. The 7 league locks from before still look good on paper but a pedestrian .500 mark in the other 11 results in somewhere around 13-5 / 12-6 league record but still a 20+ win season. Sure their seed would take a hit but they are still in the NCAAs.
Prediction
I am never a huge fan of Izzo’s system of relying so heavily on the starting-five and creating a top-heavy club but his track record shows I’m worried about nothing. Despite having a lot of frontcourt talent, I’m not sold on the size of it or Costello’s growth as the starting center. Unless he found some magic potion, it feels like MSU is going 4 on 5 offensively. That is the biggest weakness of this team and while it will cost them some games along the way, the real challenge will come once they face great interior scoring teams. As we saw in the Duke match-up, they have a long way to go at preventing that. Izzo will surely find a way, but it is hard to see this team getting past a Duke, a Kentucky or a Wisconsin even late in the season. The great news is you don’t play a team like that until deep in the tournament so expect another Sweet 16, if not farther, Spartan fans!
Big Ten and Counting 