To say Indiana’s 2013-2014 season was a nightmare would be over the top for most schools but this is Indiana. This is the home of five national championships, an undefeated season and the The General Bob Knight. 7-11 in the Big Ten does not cut it, especially in the face of so many off-court headaches. To say Tom Crean is on the hot seat is an understatement. Simply put, another .500 or sub .500 league season will be his undoing. The natives would be restless on his record alone but factoring in 5 of 13 players receiving suspensions and you have one furious fan base.
With much upheaval going on in Bloomington the first thing to look at is the departing players. Will Sheehey was a hard working senior who gave reliable numbers in thirty minutes a night. More importantly is his leadership for a team that now has zero seniors and just three juniors on scholarship. Noah Vonleh went one-and-done at Indiana. He nearly averaged a double-double for the Hoosiers as a freshman. It would be interesting to know how much him bolting to the NBA could be traced to the program’s dysfunction a year ago. Considering he was a top-10 pick, he was most likely gone either way, but that could not have been a fun season of basketball and extinguished any doubt in his mind.
Other losses include transfers Jeremy Hollowell to FAU, Luke Fischer to Marquette, Austin Etherington to Butler and Peter Jerkin to East Tennessee. It is easy to dismiss these guys as role players or bench players whose number can be made up but four transfers is an awful lot. Hollowell averaged 18 minutes a night and Fischer was just a freshman center prospect at 6’11” – who knows what the big man will develop into. A plethora of players buried on the bench, six in fact, have graduated.
So with last year’s roster blown up…who the hell is there? Thanks to off season arrests, this is kind of a grab bag. One known quantity is Yogi Ferrell, who made the leap between his freshman and sophomore year averaging 17.3 ppg, 3 boards a night and nearly 4 assists per. His 40 % from three has the potential to cause headaches for opposing coach’s defensive plans. Hanner Mosquera-Perea was seldom seen in his first two years on campus but with all the departures and suspensions, he’ll get plenty of cracks this year in the weak Indiana frontcourt. Collin Hartman is a respected shooter but an ACL last year leaves him as a big unknown.
Troy Williams and Stanford Robinson each had flashes as freshman but currently sit due to a drug arrest. Devin Davis averaged just 2.4 points in a little over 8 minutes a game last year but was hurt in a car accident when a fellow basketball player did not see him step out into traffic after Davis was dropped off. Yup, it was that kind of off season.
Outside of Ferrell, it is the new faces who will most likely give Indiana a bounce if they hope to avoid a repeat of last year’s 7-11 disappointment. A pair of guards are college ready and will give Ferrell a ton of help in the backcourt. James Blackmon Jr. is a five-star, McDonald’s All-American who Rivals listed as the 22nd best prospect and ESPN rated at 20th. He turned down offers from Kentucky, Kansas, MSU and Michigan to be a Hoosier. Robert Johnson is a four-star recruit and a top-50 overall prospect who garnered an offer from Roy Williams at UNC. Safe to say these guys will have a little bit of an impact this year.
The frontcourt is all over the place right now. Freshman Jeremiah April is a 6’10” project, Freshman Max Hoetzel is a 3-star kid but at 6’7″ will not stack up in league play among the trees, Freshman Tim Priller is 6’9″ but was lightly recruited. Thus the Hanner Mosquera-Perea show will be seen a lot. Emmitt Holt is another undersized forward but he was the driver in the Davis accident and is suspended. The lone player on the bench with experience is graduate school transfer Nick Zeisloft who played a fair amount at Illinois State. Experienced, yes…but he did not set the Missouri Valley on fire. Walk-ons Ryan Burton and Nate Ritchie will see time early as players come back from suspension and injury but don’t project as long term solutions.
Best Case
The backcourt turns into one of the best in the league and they ride Ferrell, Blackmon Jr. and Johnson to a winning league record and save Crean’s career. Facing tough non conference clubs like SMU, Pitt and Louisville give way to only 8 or 9 non-con wins. In league play though they hold home serve against Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue and Iowa while knocking off Purdue and Rutgers on the road. That is six wins with the possibility of at least four more through upsets or road wins at similarly talented teams. 18 or 19 wins overall though probably won’t get them to the NCAAs without a lot of impressive upsets or winning a couple games in Chicago.
Worst Case
The lack of production in the paint dooms this team in a physical league. 7 or fewer league wins results in Crean getting canned and Blackmon Jr. and Ferrell both jump to the NBA. Johnson decides to transfer back closer to home resulting in VCU, Virginia and Virginia Tech all jostling for position in the sweepstakes.
Prediction
Without a balanced team there really is no way to compete long term. The backcourt has the potential to be great, but the frontcourt might be the worst in the league. Throw in the distraction of Crean’s job security and anymore off-court arrests and you have the makings of a rotten season. The trio of guards might will this team to the NIT, but even that feels like a stretch. Crean losing his job seems like the safer bet than a post-season berth.
Big Ten and Counting 