What is the best thing about Penn State’s roster this season? They return 4 starters. What is the worst thing about Penn State’s roster this season? They return 4 starters. Yes, it is great to have the stability of 70% of last year’s scoring and 80% of the rebounding back but when you are coming off a 16-18 (6-12) campaign, there is no guarantee that the players will have grown enough to make an impact this year.
The lone starter departing was Tim Frazier, a key player and a recipient of many Big Ten honors during his four years on campus. He led the team in minutes played, assists and steals per game. He was the second leading scorer and grabbed four-plus rebounds a game. He was a stud. Also graduating was Allen Roberts who chipped in about 6 points a game off the bench and Zach Cooper. Graham Woodward has also left the program, transferring to Drake. His 2.8 ppg can easily be found elsewhere.
With Frazier gone, this team becomes D.J. Newbill’s, although the signs of the changing of the guard were seen last year as Newbill led the team in scoring and was the second-leading rebounder. He shot better than Frazier too, hitting 45% from the floor and a solid 32.6% from beyond the arc. Leading rebounder Ross Travis is also back in the fold. He averaged 8.4 ppg and 7.0 rpg a season ago. Not a stretch to see him getting even more touches without Frazier and being an impressive double-double man nightly. Brandon Taylor was a key cog a season ago with 9 points and 5 boards a night but shined as a stretch forward hitting 32% of his threes. John Johnson also played well a season ago after coming over from Pitt. There is a lot of competition at his guard position but if he can improve his shooting, he could see his minutes jump.
Even more returning talent is found in Donovan Jack, another forward, who played all 34 games with 27 starts, 20 minutes a night and 6 points per. At 6’9″ 210 his mission in the offseason was to put on muscle. He did lead the club in blocks a year ago so he still found ways to be effective. Lanky 6’3″ guard Geno Thorpe played quite a bit a season ago and when PSU wants to go big, he’ll see plenty of time this year, too. 7-footer Jordan Dickerson is a defensive specialist who could see the court if PSU wants to go super big. He shined defensively as PSU upset Ohio State twice last season. Alan Wisniewski and Kevin Montminy round out the bench.
The new faces for PSU are also impressive, considering Penn State’s lower hoops standards. Shep Garner has received praise far beyond his 3-star status Rivals lists him at. He will compete with second-team all American Juco player Devin Foster for the starting point guard slot. Peyton Banks, a red-shirt freshman, was a 3-star recruit when coming out of California at his SF position. Julian Moore payed a little last year but a broken nose and complications steming from the injury led to a red shirt. Like Banks he maybe new to us, but it is his second year in the program – an added perk for rounding out the bench. Isaiah Washington will most likely be redshirted this year as his 6’3″, 175 frame isn’t up to college standards yet.
Best Case
Newbill and Travis make a solid inside-outside pairing but finding the right options around them could take a little time. Taylor and Jack most likely have their starting positions locked up so of Garner can pan out, the starting rotation should be set. The non-conference slate is favorable with only George Washington and possibly Virginia Tech looking difficult. They may also face Miami and USC in the Charleston Classic. Without factoring the unknown of the tournament, there is a great shot at nine wins. In league play they host Purdue, Rutgers and Maryland. They should sweep those three. Manageable road games are Rutgers, Indiana, Maryland and Northwestern. If they can win three of those they will have matched their league win total from a year ago, and this is without factoring in any upsets. Getting just three more measly wins would put them at 9-9 in the league. Say they win 10 non-conference games, a 19 win Big Ten team has to love their chances at the NIT if not the NCAA.
Worst Case
Playing inexperienced point guards force Newbill to take over the point. He is less effective with the ball than off it. They struggle in league play just like a season ago and limp to a 5 or 6 game league tally and a losing record overall.
Prediction
I’m not sold on the bench or the PG position enough to see the NCAAs on this team, but I think they can finish with 7 to 10 league wins which puts them in good shape for the CBI or the NIT with some non-con / Big Ten Tournament luck. Any postseason would be great to allow this team to get even more extra practice and games under the belt. Only Newbill and Johnson are important seniors so the Nittany Lions appear close to that breakthrough if it doesn’t happen this year.
Big Ten and Counting 