The Fighting Illini entered 2013-2014 with one of the youngest teams in the league and shot out of a cannon going 11-2 in the non-conference. A 2-0 league start pushed that impressive start to 13-2 before all hell broke loose. An eight game losing streak dropped them to 13-10 (2-8). In a season of runs though Illinois adjusted the roster and picked up their play winning 5 of 8. A 1-1 record in the league tournament brought the final mark to 19-14 (7-11) and just a couple wins shy of the NCAAs. A one point loss in the second round of the NIT ended the season but the excitement for 2014-2015 has been building since that finale.
With so many new faces last year, the departing cast does not concern this team much. Joseph Bertrand and Jon Ekay each had their memorable moments but as Jim Groce’s recruiting has improved this roster, they can absorb those losses. The biggest blow comes from a player they were excited to have back. Tracy Abrams tore his ACL in camp and will be lost for the season. The 6’2″ guard really blossomed last season with 10.7ppg, 3.5 rpg and 3.2 apg. He was also a minute eater averaging 30 minutes a game last season.
The most important face back is Rayvonte Rice. The Drake transfer lived up to the hype with 15.9 ppg and 6 boards per. Not bad for a 6’4″ guard. Despite not a huge threat from beyond the arc, he is from anywhere else. When the midseason roster shake up occurred, Kendrick Nunn and Malcolm Hill joined the starting five. Nunn is another 6 plus foot guard and Hill is a massive 6’6″ at the guard position. Both are experienced but didn’t do enough a season ago to be locks for cracking the starting-five this year. Towering Nnanna Egwu is a defensive stud and with 6.9 ppg he isn’t a wash down low either. Jaylon Tate played 12 minutes a night as a freshman last year but very little in league. Any uptick in his game just adds to the embarrassment of riches this club has. Maverick Morgan, Austin Colbert and Mike LaTulip round out the returning cast. Morgan played the most a year ago of this trio backing up Egwu but Colbert’s similar size allows for plenty of depth in the frontcourt.
A pair of transfers will be immediate impact players for this club. Aaron Cosby from Seton Hall averaged 12.6 and a staggering 40% from three in 2012-2013. Like most freshman he was a headache with the ball (nearly 3 turnovers a night) but in theory that will go down. Ahmad Starks played two strong seasons at Oregon State but the Chicago kid is returning home. With the injury to Abrams he is now the starting point guard.
The freshman to this program also show a lot of promise. Heralded power forward Leron Black is a 4-star prospect rated as the 11th best in his position, 44th overall and number one in his state. Not sure how the Tennessee kid got past some of those great southern programs but Illinois isn’t complaining. Michael Finke is an interesting prospect down the line but hard to see how he will fit in this year with better forwards in front of him. Walk-ons Alex Austin and Cameron Liss round out the bench.
Best Case
Rice, the transfers and Black create a fantastic core of scorers with Egwu’s fantastic defense. Hill and Nunn’s development continues with them coming off the bench as the 6th and 7th men in to create a very solid rotation. The bench is helped even more by Morgan’s development and the top eight hold their own against anybody in the league. Illinois opens up hot and wins the Las Vegas Invitational (title game would most likely be Memphis or Baylor) and creams Miami in the ACC challenge. They are 8-0 when they face Villanova in the Jimmy V Classic. Their toughest non-con games other than Nova tilt are Oregon and Missouri. A repeat 11-2 start looks likely, if not improved upon. Once in league play Maryland, Indiana, Purdue, Penn State, Rutgers and Northwestern must all come to Assembly Hall. Road trips to Northwestern and Purdue are also favorable. That is eight wins right there without even factoring in upsets or similarly talented teams. Illinois scores wins against Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa and Michigan – aka the group of similarly talented – to go 12-6 in league. At 23-8, the Illini are a lock for the NCAAs. Oh, I didn’t even factor in the possibility of an upset in this experiment.
Worst Case
No one can answer the bell to run the point with Abrams gone. The transfers fail to click and the talented Leron Black plays like a freshman in too many important games. Illinois enters league play with only 8 or 9 wins. Once there they hover around .500. An 18-14 finish leaves a very sour taste in their mouths.
Prediction
Illinois enjoys one of the best home court advantages in the league and of their 9 home league dates, only Michigan and Michigan State look like tough games on paper. That is 7 league wins you can practically bank. The non-conference slate is also favorable. 8 non-con games look like locks, Miami should be a win (even on the road) and there is no way they get swept in their toughest tests (Nova, Oregon, Mizzou, Baylor/Memphis). With 15 probable locks before the season is underway translates to just one thing…what is the ceiling on this team? 24? 25? More? An NCAA team for sure and if they catch a few breaks, a threat to win the whole dang thing.
Big Ten and Counting 